Nate Silver makes it sound like Arizona may be close - link

[Alhena]

I wasn't aware that late-arriving early votes favored Republicans so far. I wonder if that's the case in Maricopa County as well. At any rate, this doesn't sound like as sure a thing as I'd hoped.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324064410684575746

[BlueIdaho]

1. Nate can go fuck himself. nt.

[Silent3]

17. Nate doesn't run the polls, he just aggregates them and builds models from them.

But garbage in, garbage out. I think it's the pollsters who have done the worst job for us. Their errors must largely be systemic, not random, or else the errors would tend to average out when aggregated. To some extent an aggregator like Nate can try to compensate, but he can only do so much.

Since presidential elections only happen every four years, and so much about public behavior can change over four years, there's precious little hard data available to refine models like Nate's to compensate for bad polling.

[BlueIdaho]

19. After 538 assured everyone they had created better models for 2020

I can only say - Fuck Nate Silver

[PTWB]

22. Actually the model did really well.

Despite the polls being really wrong. Nate wasn’t the problem. He doesn’t do the polls.

[BlueIdaho]

23. For eight years I have preached the gospel of Nate Silver.

I’m fucking done with him now. Don’t bother trying to change my mind.

[PTWB]

25. Ok.

What do you expect when he got supposedly reputable polls saying Biden up 8 and 17 in WI just before the election?

Or every single poll showing Collins losing in Maine?

This was a poll problem. Not a Nate problem.

[BlueIdaho]

27. I'm done.

Done with him and done with you.

[PTWB]

28. Okay.

I hope you get to feeling better.

[Claustrum]

2. Yes. That's what MSNBC said as well.

There are about 600k late arriving votes left and it's favoring Trump. Trump would need 58% of the remaining votes to win it......

[Shell_Seas]

3. The AP has already called AZ for Biden.

[Hoyt]

4. Silver is gun shy at this point. I'm not trusting anything he says

even if I want it to be true.

[Binkie The Clown]

5. And everything he's said in the last few weeks has been sooooo accurate.

[njhoneybadger]

6. I'm done with Nate

[Happy Hoosier]

7. He's right, more or less.

But he points out that even if the vote breaks down by party ID which may favor Trump, he'd still come up short.

Mostly good news for us. But it may not matter since PA may work out for us.

[BusyBeingBest]

8. The good thing is, just because it's a lot of R-registered votes

doesn't mean it's all going to go to Trump. There was some crossover to Dems apparently.

[madaboutharry]

9. Vaughn Hillyard just said on MSNBC that Trump needs 58% of ballots still not counted.

That is a high bar.

[getagrip_already]

12. doesn't trump want voting counts stopped?

So he has surely filed suit here, correct?

{sarcasm}

[Demsrule86]

10. Nope...they are mail votes and even in red areas they trend towards Biden. Also Biden is

winning by a substantial amount of the vote already...Trump is toast.

[DarthDem]

11. Zactly.

[Alhena]

13. That's what I thought as well, but apparently late-arriving mail votes favor Republicans in AZ

[radius777]

18. I don't think so.

In 2018 the late arriving and drop-off ballots are what allowed Sinema to overtake McSally, so I wonder why that would be different now.

What Silver was saying is that the late arriving ballots are less Dem than the earlier ones, but this doesn't mean they lean R.

[FBaggins]

16. They are late mail-in and drop-off votes

Apparently, the ones that came in later in the cycle have been leaning red.

He seems to be saying that they haven't been leaning quite as red as Trump needs in order to pull it off... AND there's the consideration that just because party registration says something doesn't mean that's how they vote in a state that has been trending blue.

[qazplm135]

15. Not quite

He's put a lot of caveats on it.

[PTWB]

20. We've been saying that all night long since it was first called by Fox.

[BainsBane]

21. If AZ doesn't hold

we must win PA.

[BainsBane]

24. This from the NYT

100% of counties (15 of 15) have reported absentee votes. Data for absentee votes may not be available in some places.

The statement seems contradictory.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona-president.html

[snowybirdie]

26. Nate Silver

Has had marginal success in two national elections. Hope he's got a lot of retirement savings because we're done with listening to his prognostication and those of his ilk. Let's find a better way, like reading tea leaves.