Republicans defy expectations in the battle for Congress- Why

[octoberlib]

Going into Election Day, polling showed multiple House and Senate races within the margin of error. Many of those races broke in Republicans’ favor, and there are different theories about why. It’s possible that polls failed to pick up on enthusiasm for Trump and the resulting surge of Republicans who turned out to the polls on Tuesday. Multiple campaign strategists said that there would have to be a reckoning in the polling industry, with public and private polling misreading support for Trump nationally and in battleground House and Senate races.

“The polling was off in 2016 and was pretty spot on in 2018 and was off again in 2020, and the constant here is Trump,” said Joshua Karp, a Democratic consultant. “He is doing something under the surface level of the electorate that pundits, pollsters, media observers, Republicans and Democrats all are not seeing.”

The results in hotly contested Senate races largely reflected the presidential results in each state. Trump prevailed in several states he won in 2016, including in Iowa and Montana, where GOP Sens. Joni Ernst and Steve Daines fended off Democratic challengers. But in Arizona, where Biden defeated Trump, Democrat Mark Kelly also defeated GOP Sen. Martha McSally.

Some Democrats were questioning Wednesday why they didn’t manage to flip GOP House seats in suburban areas where Biden had appeared to be doing well. It’s possible those polls were just way off. It’s also possible that voters split their tickets, registering their disapproval of Trump by voting for Biden, but then voting for down-ballot Republicans. A similar dynamic developed in 2016, when Hillary Clinton carried 25 House districts that Republicans also won.

https://rollcall.com/2020/11/04/republicans-defy-expectations-in-the-battle-for-congress/?ref=com.devaary.cqrc.rollcall.v01

[Wounded Bear]

1. I hear we got a new crop of Repub women congressfolk...

maybe that's it?

[octoberlib]

3. Yep . Suburban GOP women hated Trump, voted for Biden and Republicans ran women

for the House to retain their votes.

[Cosmocat]

2. Because of the idiot in the white house

He drew out every last cock roach this country had to the polls yesterday, who voted R down ballot. This was the difference in a lot of those close or right leaning congressional districts, and a lot of the key Senate races we had some light in, like Iowa and Maine ...

[Dawson Leery]

4. Exactly.

The GOP lost the suburbs but were able to find more deplorables to replace those lost votes.

[DeminPennswoods]

8. That's exactly what happened in Pennsylvania

Usually there's a lot of ticket-splitting, but not this time for the Rs/cultists. And that was without the ability to vote straight party.

I don't think R turnout will ever reach those amazing numbers again.

[Cosmocat]

10. Absolutely

I work our precinct here in PA, which is Rish, and we beat our all time high in turnout in 2016, which had been 850 or so by hitting 1200+. I remembered by early afternoon texting my friends that Hillary was in trouble ...

Yesterday we got slammed, relentlessly, like 2016 for the first half of the day, I was really getting spooked, but it did slow down the last half some, which matches with what looks like the end result, as well as a lot of people who voted by mail.

Both times, there were ALL KINDS of people who had either never voted before or had last voted in 2016 ...

[octoberlib]

11. I'm pretty sure you're right. Trump was a cult leader not a dry establishment type.

Unless they nominate another cult leader. Like , Tucker Carlson.

[Hassler]

5. Chump got 5 million more votes than 16. His base was as

Motivated as we were. It made a difference in tight districts. At least that's my guess.

[Cosmocat]

7. That is absolutely what happened

nm

[cilla4progress]

6. So, does this bode well for 2022

when he won't be on the ballot? (Or ever again..hopefully).

And it still doesn't explain the poor prognostication.

I hope to be out of the country for the 2024 election. Or dead.

[DeminPennswoods]

9. They Rs will still vote, but not like this year

when their hero was on the ballot. I think the losses were just the result of a unique set of circumstances. If I were the Dems, I wouldn't waste too much time on analysis or conclusions.

[Cosmocat]

12. It does

a shit ton of people who either never voted or only voted once voted yesterday who pollsters likely did not capture.

As to 2024 ... If he does not die, I fully expect 45 to the candidate, and as someone noted in another thread here earlier, he is likely to announce early this year to stake his place and keep the zombie base in his camp ...

[cilla4progress]

13. I'm assuming

he will be incarcerated in 2024.

I may be dead, however ....!