General Discussion

msongs

(67,395 posts) Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:48 PM Nov 2020

AZ - trump wins one dump does not mean he will win all of them that way

they are just grabbing batches to release so there ought to be variations between dumps IMO

12 replies

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AZ - trump wins one dump does not mean he will win all of them that way (Original Post) msongs Nov 2020 OP

Don't try to prevent us from panicking Renew Deal Nov 2020 #1

I understand all the words hurl Nov 2020 #2

So it's not just me... SMC22307 Nov 2020 #8

LOL LeftInTX Nov 2020 #9

The posts here are yo-yoing GusBob Nov 2020 #3

Clever! (n/t) SMC22307 Nov 2020 #11

There are about 320K votes left. Biden is winning by 79K votes. OrlandoDem2 Nov 2020 #4

Besides which i think his math is wrong DLCWIdem Nov 2020 #12

well jcgoldie Nov 2020 #5

Agreed coti Nov 2020 #6

I won't rest easy RandySF Nov 2020 #7

I needed some good news last night but now I wish AP and Fox helpisontheway Nov 2020 #10

Renew Deal

(81,856 posts)

1. Don't try to prevent us from panicking

Reply to msongs (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:48 PM

Nov 2020

hurl

(938 posts)

2. I understand all the words

Reply to msongs (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:50 PM

Nov 2020

but not in that order

SMC22307

(8,090 posts)

8. So it's not just me...

Reply to hurl (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:54 PM

Nov 2020

LeftInTX

(25,278 posts)

9. LOL

Reply to hurl (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:54 PM

Nov 2020

You win the AZ confusion, late-early, on time, in person, post of the day!

GusBob

(7,286 posts)

3. The posts here are yo-yoing

Reply to msongs (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:50 PM

Nov 2020

Zona is a lock
Not so fast Trump took a dump
The splits are this
No they are that!

SMC22307

(8,090 posts)

11. Clever! (n/t)

Reply to GusBob (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:55 PM

Nov 2020

OrlandoDem2

(2,065 posts)

4. There are about 320K votes left. Biden is winning by 79K votes.

Reply to msongs (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:51 PM

Nov 2020

If Trump takes 60% of all 320K, I believe Biden would still finish with a 15K vote lead.

DLCWIdem

(1,580 posts)

12. Besides which i think his math is wrong

Reply to OrlandoDem2 (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:07 PM

Nov 2020

He said 35k for Biden. 43k for Trump. Meanns 78k. So 43k of 78k is closer to 55% not 59%.

jcgoldie

(11,631 posts)

5. well

Reply to msongs (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:51 PM

Nov 2020

Statistically when you are talking about 75k votes thats like 20% of the pile... it should look very much like the rest...

UNLESS... there are differences in where they came from or when they were collected.

Kornacki said for example that these were received in the mail Saturday and Sunday and the next batch was walked in and dropped off Tuesday... that could be a meaningful difference.

coti

(4,612 posts)

6. Agreed

Reply to msongs (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:52 PM

Nov 2020

Each batch could be different, for better or worse.

For what it's worth I don't think Trump's percentage in that batch was high enough to overcome Biden.

RandySF

(58,786 posts)

7. I won't rest easy

Reply to msongs (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:52 PM

Nov 2020

until the motherfucker is one.

helpisontheway

(5,007 posts)

10. I needed some good news last night but now I wish AP and Fox

Reply to msongs (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:54 PM

Nov 2020

Would have waited for more votes before giving it to Biden. It would suck to have them retract it and take it back.

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