General Discussion

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts) Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:14 PM Nov 2020

Right now, I'm trying to figure out which we have a better chance of doing...

- Winning 62% of heavily-blue PA mail-in ballots needed to overtake Trump.

- Winning 42% of heavily-red AZ mail-in ballots needed to keep Trump from overtaking us.

We're going to need one of the two (plus a win in NV for the second).

10 replies

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Right now, I'm trying to figure out which we have a better chance of doing... (Original Post) regnaD kciN Nov 2020 OP

Both MissB Nov 2020 #1

PA sounds like a done deal. TwilightZone Nov 2020 #2

PA, I posted a tweet from Nate Silver about the last PA ballot batch. Claustrum Nov 2020 #3

Yes, I saw your post... regnaD kciN Nov 2020 #7

You are right. But I think keeping pace to 60% shouldn't be too hard. Claustrum Nov 2020 #8

True, but that's pretty close to the party breakdown of the returned mail in ballots. Salviati Nov 2020 #10

Georgia (GEORGIA!!) volstork Nov 2020 #4

See, it IS like ,'18 cilla4progress Nov 2020 #5

regnaD KciN Upthevibe Nov 2020 #6

The majority of remaining AZ ballots are in blue counties like Maricopa and Pima MakeTXBlue2020 Nov 2020 #9

MissB

(15,803 posts)

1. Both

Reply to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:14 PM

Nov 2020

But definitely PA.

TwilightZone

(25,428 posts)

2. PA sounds like a done deal.

Reply to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:15 PM

Nov 2020

Biden won the latest batch 75/25.

Claustrum

(4,845 posts)

3. PA, I posted a tweet from Nate Silver about the last PA ballot batch.

Reply to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:17 PM

Nov 2020

It went to Biden for almost 50 points, which is 75/25, way ahead of your 62% figure.

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)

7. Yes, I saw your post...

Reply to Claustrum (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:23 PM

Nov 2020

I would only caution that you can't expect that, just because the last batch went 75%-25% for us, that the remaining ballots will do the same. There's no "memory" with ballot-counting...but it's good that both Nate and G. Elliot Morris (Economist) seem pretty certain we win PA.

Claustrum

(4,845 posts)

8. You are right. But I think keeping pace to 60% shouldn't be too hard.

Reply to regnaD kciN (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:25 PM

Nov 2020

Reason to be optimistic but no guarantee until the final number is out.

Salviati

(6,008 posts)

10. True, but that's pretty close to the party breakdown of the returned mail in ballots.

Reply to regnaD kciN (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:46 PM

Nov 2020

Particularly if you assume that Biden is getting a larger share of the no party affiliation folks than trump does.

It certainly seems like there's likely nothing too out of the ordinary with that last batch...

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

volstork

(5,399 posts)

4. Georgia (GEORGIA!!)

Reply to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:19 PM

Nov 2020

remains in play as well....

cilla4progress

(24,717 posts)

5. See, it IS like ,'18

Reply to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:20 PM

Nov 2020

where the wave just rolled in until we realized what we'd accomplished!!

We need to learn to wait better.

Upthevibe

(8,012 posts)

6. regnaD KciN

Reply to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:21 PM

Nov 2020

I'm also trying to figure this out. I need more information on if the outstanding votes from AZ., Nevada, Penn., Georgia, N. Carolina are from leaning Dem counties or leaning Repub. countries per state. Is this an answerable question?

MakeTXBlue2020

(131 posts)

9. The majority of remaining AZ ballots are in blue counties like Maricopa and Pima

Reply to regnaD kciN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:44 PM

Nov 2020

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