AZ gap down to 69K with this last batch of 62K

[coti]

according to talking heads on CNN.

It didn't go down much with this last batch, considering. It sounds like there is somewhere between 280K and 320K ballots left. I don't think Trump is on track to close the gap- five more of those batches (300K left over divided by 62K) would only bring the gap down to about 20K (about 10K each batch).

The CNN talking heads are saying the opposite, that he could make it up- that's not what I'm seeing, here.

[sweetloukillbot]

1. Sounds like this could've been Trump's high water mark

Sounds like the drops get less friendly here on out...

[BannonsLiver]

2. Harry Enten said on CNN the next batches are likely to be less favorable for Trump.

But that we won’t see those until tomorrow. Cuomo is amping up the drama. He’s bad at election coverage.

[coti]

3. That also.

But even at this rate, he won't make it.

[Wanderlust988]

4. Cuomo is really a drama queen

with this board. He's driving me nuts. Trying to drum up fear.

[grantcart]

5. H. Enten on CNN says that the final batch will be late drop off ballots

They think this will be more Democratic

Likely to pick up net 5-7 K from Pina.

[Stand and Fight]

16. Pima -- not "Pina". Assuming you're talking about the county that holds Tucson, Arizona. n/t

[grantcart]

19. Must have been autocorrect. I used to live in Tucson.

[Stand and Fight]

21. Autocorrect. One of the banes of our existence now. Totally understandable, sadly.

[mvd]

6. Even with continued 58%, I get a 50,000 makeup

Still not enough.

[LovingA2andMI]

9. Exactly!!!

THIS!!!

[LovingA2andMI]

7. They are SERIOUSLY trying to keep RATINGS

Biden was UP 74,000 on the previous Batch and now up 68K as in the next lost was 6000. That is not enough when vote for Biden in Maricopa will continue to come in that will likely lean BIDEN Then there was 17,000 or so votes in Puma County that will be HEAVY Biden.

CNN needs to STOP PLAYING and call Arizona for Biden. It's Obvious to anyone that can do basic math. That is what Harry Ethen was saying.

[Maraya1969]

17. So if it is like this Fox news map and Biden has AZ. The only way Trump

could win would be to take Georgia, PA, NC AND NV.

And that seems almost impossible unless...........USA

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results

[Stand and Fight]

18. Pima County. Not "Puma".

Other than that, you're exactly right. I absolutely hate how the media plays up everything as if its job is to inject drama where there is none. Just report the facts, do statistical analysis, and stop letting jackasses create suspense where there oughtn't be any. Especially annoyed sitting here with an MBA and masters in political management. Statistical analysis and trend lines are easy. Do that. Stop with the damn drama. Some people are stressed enough. I mean, just look at our fellow DU'ers!

[brush]

20. It's Pima County, where Tucson is.

Many of the counties in AZ are named after Native American tribes.

[qazplm135]

8. so let's assume it's 300K left

Trump would need 61.5 percent of the remainder to get 70K net.

All Biden needs is one or two batches in the low 50s or so to be relatively safe albeit razor close.

[Catherine Vincent]

10. Cuomo and company are confusing

I'm going to bed.

Goodnight y'all.

[LovingA2andMI]

11. We are too....

Cuomo is confusing on a daily basis....so.

[whttevrr]

12. Looks like trump needs more than 60% to overtake the lead that President Biden has.

294K remaining
60% would be 176K/118K which would not beat 69k
Biden would still win by 11k

It's a squeaker if President Biden gets 40% of the remaining votes.

69K lead
294K/2
147K + 69k = 216k

216k/294k = 73%

https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+election+results+2020
2020 US election results
LiveUpdated at 11:54 PM PST
Arizona
PresidentUS SenateUS HouseGovernorBallot measures
Arizona · President
From The Associated Press
88% reporting · The Associated Press has called this race · 11 electoral votes · Learn more
Candidates
Vote %
Vote count

Joe Biden
Democratic Party
50.5%
1,469,341

Donald Trump
Republican Party
48.1%
1,400,951

[still_one]

13. I don't watch Chris Cuomo. He is too adversarial with most of his guests, and it is no

surprise that with this he is stirring up the drama as described in the posts here in this thread.

Harry Ethen is good, but for me it isn't worth it to put up with Cuomo's nonesense

[whttevrr]

14. Yeah, he is also kind of condescending.

I ain't got time for that.

Unless it's funny. And he is just not funny.

And, preachy. He makes my skin crawl when he is talking into the camera. My first impulse is to look him in the eye and say: "Fuck you'"

[still_one]

15. Yes his preachy attitude is annoying

[qdouble]

22. Looking at the remaining counties...

I don't know which ones that have a big population would swing that hard to Trump to give him that type of edge.

[honest.abe]

23. How do you know there are only 280k to 320K remaining?

From my back of envelope calcs it's more like 400,000.

2,800,000 (approx total current votes counted) / .88 (approx percent counted) = 3,200,000 (approximate total votes expected)

3,200,000 - 2,800,000 = 400,000 approx remaining

If that is correct then that could change things. However, I do think the next batches are going to be more pro Biden. Also, the fact Fox and AP are not pulling their call on AZ makes me think they know what's coming.

[Johnny2X2X]

24. Those % are never very accurate

They’re sometime way off.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

25. Hope election officials triple check these late early and provisional

ballots. Just worried that the GOP found some kind of window for committing some type of voter fraud here, with these armed thugs terrorizing and pressuring election workers in Maricopa County. It reminds me of the Brooks Brothers riot, where paid Republican operatives were used. operatives Not saying there is vote malarkey, but the GOP is expert at figuring out ways to cheat and use the courts to help them do it.

There is a narrow window for a voter’s early ballot to be delivered on the Monday before Election Day or the Tuesday of the vote. Those ballots - so-called "late earlies" - aren't counted until the Wednesday after the election.

Even if elections officials tell the voter it will be counted, under federal law, the voter can ask for another ballot, Valenzuela said.

“They have the right to say, ‘I don’t believe that,’” Valenzuela said. “But they are, for all intents and purposes, trying to vote twice.”

The voter would get a provisional ballot that would then be sent to the central elections office for review.

https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/verify-how-easy-is-it-to-cast-two-votes-in-arizona/75-7428200b-9e03-47c0-9ab4-3ec05a7b88cf

Provisional ballots are collected with early ballots that were dropped off on Election Day. County officials must then research and validate each provisional ballot before votes are tabulated. This process can take several days.

https://www.azfamily.com/did-you-get-a-provisional-ballot-here-is-what-happens-next/article_959ad422-e13f-11e8-9541-e7779f416131.html

In late November 2000, hundreds of mostly middle-aged male protesters, dressed in off-the-peg suits and cautious ties, descended on the Miami-Dade polling headquarters in Florida. Shouting, jostling, and punching, they demanded that a recount of ballots for the presidential election be stopped.

The protesters, many of whom were paid Republican operatives, succeeded. A recount of ballots in Florida was abandoned. What became known as the Brooks Brothers riot went down in infamy, and George W Bush became president after a supreme court decision.

In 2020, fears are growing that the US could see an unwanted sequel to the Brooks Brothers debacle – but with more violent participants.

After a year in which armed Donald Trump supporters have besieged state houses across the country and shot and killed Black Lives Matter protesters – and in which Trump has said he will only lose if the election is rigged – a 2020 reboot of the Brooks Brothers stunt could be dangerous.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/24/us-elections-2020-violence-fears-brooks-brothers-riot