Allegheny County, PA: Either good news or a potential warning sign

[democrattotheend]

In most counties in PA, Biden is outperforming Hillary's margin from 2016 once the mail ballots are counted, while underperforming Hillary's margins in most of the counties where no mail ballots or only some mail ballots have been counted.

As of sometime yesterday, Biden has been not only outperforming Hillary in Allegheny County (home to Pittsburgh), he's been outperforming Obama in that county, both times. Right now, he has a higher margin in Allegheny than Obama got when he won the state by 10 points in 2008. Biden is winning it by 19 points, compared to a 16 point margin for Hillary in 2016, 14 points for Obama in 2012, and 15.5 points for Obama in 2008.

This seems like great news, but I recall seeing this morning that Allegheny also has some in-person votes left to count. Can anyone confirm that, or say how many in-person votes we are talking about? As of this morning, Trump was winning the in-person vote in every county except Philadelphia, even counties like Allegheny and Montgomery where Biden was killing it overall.

If all of the in-person votes in Allegheny are counted, then the fact that Biden is outperforming Hillary and Obama is fantastic. But I am a little skeptical that he is doing better there than Obama did in 2008, when he won the state by double digits.

[Thekaspervote]

1. Nate Cohn and several other experts have said Biden's win will be upwards of 100k

I don’t really think they would be putting those kinds of figures out there if they thought Biden was going to lose..do you?? Really??

[Dem2]

2. Did you notice in your numbers that the Democratic portion has been getting better every cycle?

It's not illogical to imagine that the margins are just getting better because the area is becoming more Democratic.

[zonemaster]

3. Outstanding in-person votes in Allegheny County should net Trump about +329

...by my calculations

[Wiz Imp]

4. According to the PA Dept Of State Website...

There are 7 remaining uncounted precincts in Allegheny County. Those appear to be the only in person votes not yet counted in the entire state. It is unlikely it amounts to too much as Allegheny County has a total of 1323 precincts, so those 7 uncounted precincts amount to only .53% of the total precincts in the County.

[Wiz Imp]

5. Also...

There are still about 85,000 uncounted mail-in in Philadelphia. So far, Biden has gotten about 80% of the vote in Philadelphia. If he gets just 80% of those 85,000, he nets another 51,000 votes. Current deficit is about 75,000. In reality, the Philadelphia mail-ins are likely even more pro-Biden so that 51,000 estimate is very conservative. If he gets 90%, that's a net 68,000 which nearly erases the total statewide deficit from Philly alone.

Most of the remaining mail-in ballots (about 240,000 total) are from Blue areas as well and I read that Biden is winning the mail-in vote in every single county but 1 so even the smaller "red" counties should net Biden more votes.