Exit Polls Versus Reported Vote Counts: 2020

[Sancho]

https://tdmsresearch.com/2020/11/04/2020-presidential-election-table/?fbclid=IwAR3j7dzXhvKDu_frJYlZ7KG8liQ7XHIqjyAYCLrWzc8dH8V99OgFk-6-umI

According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Biden easily won the presidency. As in past elections, the pattern of overwhelming discrepancies between the exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts, always favoring the more politically conservative candidate, continues in this election. Incorporating the exit poll results in the New York Times interactive Electoral College map, Biden wins the presidency with a count of 328 electoral votes versus 210 for Trump.

Exit polls were conducted in 24 states. In 22 states the discrepancies between the exit polls and the vote count favored Trump. As the table below shows, in 12 of these states the discrepancies favoring Trump exceed the margin of error of the state’s exit poll.

As in the 2016 Democratic Party primaries and general election (and prior elections), the overwhelming discrepancies in the 2020 Democratic Party primaries and general election, always favoring the more politically conservative candidate, are a near statistical impossibility. The source of the problem is systemic. Either the exit polls and the pre-election polls have been improperly conducted or the vote counts are corrupt.

The exit polls conducted by Edison in this coronavirus pandemic year used the same methodology as in previous years. In 2016 absentee and early voting represented about 40% of the votes, this year it will exceed 60%. Early voters were submitted the exit poll questionnaire at their voting locations same as on election day. Telephone interviews were conducted of absentee voters as in previous years. See CNN article.

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Interesting table of results at the end of the article.

[Laelth]

1. Once again.

Republicans cheat and steal.

-Laelth

[diva77]

2. Thanks for posting. I wonder if there are exit polls for Senate races -- the results don't seem to

match what the polls were prior to the election...hmmm...

[Phoenix61]

3. Looking at the tables I'm not seeing

“Overwhelming” discrepancies. Considering how off all the pre-election polls were why is it surprising the post election polls are off. Seems they are not modeling the actual electorate very well.

[kurtcagle]

4. I think that, when a postmortem is properly done

it will be discovered that there is a strong correlation between exit poll deltas and touch screen voting, and that the exit polls will most likely tend to be consistent with the last month of polling in the election cycle. Remember also that McConnell adamantly blocked any attempt at a bill that would have secured the voting infrastructure.

My guess is that the Cheat-O-Meter devices were cranked up to about six points this year, maybe more. This is important, because a 2-3 point discrepancy is (barely) within the margin of error, but a 6 point discrepancy is not. The chances are about 1 in 10,000,000 that this would happen. I think that one of the things that the Democrats need to do at this stage is get VERY aggressive at all levels about election fraud - demanding the source code for election machines be made public, that modems be REMOVED from existing machines, and that an audit trail exists such that random spot checks by two trained poll watchers of opposing parties will be able to run through 20 randomized entries per check.

To put things into perspective: with a 6 point discrepancy, Biden would have about 375 electoral votes, the Dems would be at 53/47 in the Senate, and the House delegation would have gained another 15 members.

[Pobeka]

5. Source code? The source code that was used, or the source code they "let" you see?

Or the compiled executable that was running during the counting, or the one that replaced it after the counting was done? There too many man-in-the-middle attacks where you remove the evidence automatically and leave no evidence of tampering.

Paper ballots.

And, non-programmable machines that merely tally number of dots found in a location on a ballot.

Other than that -- I agree with your post.

[kurtcagle]

7. There are things that you can do with checksums and hashes

that tell you when the code that you're working with has been changed. Yes, potentially breakable, but a decent crypto-algorithm would take a quantum computer to resolve, and the technology for that is nowhere near mature enough.

[Pobeka]

8. checksums only work when examining the right thing.

[crickets]

6. The cheat was definitely in, and I strongly agree with every point you've made.

Modems have got to come out of the machines and a sensible bill to add to our election protections must be passed. Better yet, paper ballots should be the law of the land. Screw Mitch. We're going to get it done.

[Whiskeytide]

9. There may have been some cheating, but ...

... I think some of this is explained by the fact that people in tight swing states are embarrassed to admit they voted for republicans. That may have been especially true this time around with the fuckwit on the ticket.

[phylny]

11. It could be, but almost every yahoo in my county has a

Trump sign in their yard and a Trump flag on their car.

Oh, and "Jesus is my Savior, Trump is my President."

[Whiskeytide]

12. I'm in Alabama, so it's like that here too. But ...

... in tighter states, where they know and live and work with people on the left, I think many are just embarrassed that they vote for a racist asshole. Says a lot about how wrong they know it is, but they still do it.

My $0.02 anyway.

[triron]

10. Putin may have had some influence here.