Either polling methodologies are completely wrong across the board OR there's chicanery OR...

[Yavin4]

There is a 3rd possibility. It could be that Trump, and the Republicans', strategy of maximizing White support (esp. rural White voters) throws off traditional sampling techniques. We've seen them go to the extremes in order to do so. It's almost impossible for pollsters to create a representative sample of the electorate unless they over-weigh White voters, and even then it may not be representative.

Not since the 1960s, have we've seen a mainstream candidate and one of the major political parties campaign on extremist appeal to White voters like this. We've gotten use to the Reagan style of campaigning where he used dog whistles and subtle hints to the White extremists while still seemingly be a mainstream candidate. Bush I and II followed this as well as McCain and Romney. Trump has shown that the George Wallace style of nakedly appealing to racists is a better strategy for Republicans.

In the end, America is a lot more racist than what mainstream pollsters and media think. Dog whistle politics doesn't cut it any more. They respond to direct appeals. Going forward, Republicans have a major choice on their hands, and it's a very ugly one.

[malaise]

1. There appears to be only one conclusion

Paper ballots compare very well to polling and electronic voting shows very different results - looks like an awful lot of cheating on those machines.
Mail in ballots circumvent the machines.
More studies needed.

[Yavin4]

4. It could be that. I am open to that possibility as well.

Do you happen to know what Maine uses?

[PTWB]

8. Or Wisconsin?

We had recent polls just before the election showing Joe up +8 to +17 in Wisconsin!!

[PTWB]

6. I don't want to jump on the conspiracy bandwagon but there's definitely smoke.

Does Maine use electronic or paper? And what about Wisconsin?

[malaise]

9. Here's a great link

https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_methods_and_equipment_by_state

[SheltieLover]

11. This!👆

Not sure if possible, but a Fed law mandating paper ballots would pit an end to repuke bs.

[Statistical]

18. Maine uses paper ballots. Collins massively outperformed the polls.

Virginia uses paper ballots and is Democratically controlled and Biden underperformed the polls. He still won easily but under the polls. PA uses paper ballots and Biden will likely barely win but the polls were +5.

Yes 100% of voting should be by paper ballots across all 50 states but there are serious issues with polling.

On a related note I think Democrats should push hard for universal mail in voting. If they do there is less need for machines because mail in ballots can't be done by machines and if you have the infrastructure to count millions of paper mail in ballots then you might as well use paper ballots for everything.

[malaise]

22. Don't all three use a combo?

Maine Hand-marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility Hand count and optical scan
Wisconsin Hand-marked paper ballots, BMDs, and DREs with VVPAT Hand count, optical scan, and DRE

Virginia Hand-marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility Optical scan


https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_methods_and_equipment_by_state

[Statistical]

23. BMD for accessibility means they make up a tiny fraction of the vote.

Also in a BMD the machine doesn't record anything. It isn't used for a count. It produces a paper ballot that is human readable (i.e. a colored in circle next to Biden for President). So there is a paper trail. I will never support getting rid of BMD to disenfranchise the disabled.

I do favor getting rid of everything but paper ballots (and BMD for those who need assistance). There is just no reason to use anything else. I don't see anything wrong with optical scanning. Hand recounts have found optical scanning to be accurate. Hand counting on first pass instead of using optical scanning would takes weeks.

So VA, ME, and PA use paper ballots, 100% paper ballots. Either hand filled in or filled in with a BMD (small percentage). In all three states Biden underperformed and in ME Collins overperformed. Those are just examples I am sure there are many more states that are 100% paper ballot that the Democrats underperformed. We need to figure out why.

To be clear though I am in agreement on getting rid of all electronic voting machine crap (not BMD but electronic machines to record an electronic "vote" without a paper trail). Even fraud aside they are just stupid, and expensive, and routinely break down, and lead to questions/fears about fraud.

[malaise]

24. Thanks - I know you're an expert on matters

Statistics

[Fahrenthold451]

2. I think it's MAGA losers saying Biden to make "libs cry"

It only would take a small number of them to skew the polls big time.

This country is really, really, racist.

[bullimiami]

3. It's chicanery. It was happening before Trump. Red shift.

Suppression and other assorted dirty tricks.

Polls tell you what the voters intend not what they accomplish.

[SheltieLover]

12. This!👆

Repuke bs.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Wait for all the ballots to be counted before judging the polls

For sure a few states will be way off, but most will be within the margin of error, and the national polls will end up being close to the final result as Biden will probably win by 7 points plus.

[Statistical]

19. I don't think Biden will win by 7 maybe 5.

[Johnny2X2X]

20. 18 million votes left to count, mostly in CA and other liberal states, mostly mail in

Joe might win those 13-5. Would give him a 12 million vote win in the popular vote which would be about 7.5.

[Statistical]

21. You certainly could be right. I think it will be a bit less but I guess we will find out

for sure in a couple weeks.

[Claustrum]

7. I think it's a combination of all.

This is an exceptionally hard election to predict turnout numbers. No excuse mail in for some states just throws traditional models out the window. You don't know who would vote and who wouldn't.

Then there is the "we will lie to pollsters" Trumpers. I don't know how they get so consistent, maybe it's because pollster adjusted their own numbers so they totally discounted them in most of the polls.

And then, most of the normal people aren't answering their phones from random numbers anymore. We have tons of testimonies on this site. That would affect the quality of the polls as well.

But the sunbelt mail in numbers just don't make sense to me. Biden was doing under 60% in a lot of counties in FL and TX, while it's over 80+% in GA and PA.

[Yavin4]

15. The "shy" Trump voter theory dovetails with my theory about his naked racist appeals.

What are they "shy" about? They're "shy" because they're secretly racist and don't want the world to know.

[CincyDem]

10. Personally - I believe in the "I know it's wrong but I'm still a closet racist" voter theory.

These are folks that say all the right things in pubic but in the privacy of a voting booth (or anonymous on-line account) let their inner racist roam free.

Over the past 5-6 years, there are big portions of the population that love Trump because he frees their inner racist - we call them the base. But there's another group, I believe, that just aren't quite yet comfortable coming out of the racist closet...but they're racist to the core. And I think this group knowing likes to pollsters to convince themselves they're not really racist. Then come election day it's all about filling in that Trump bubble.

Just my opinion. I'm sure there will be papers written for years by folks a lot smarter than me.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

14. Makes sense.

I wondered if Dear Leader even told his death cult to lie to pollsters. I guess we would have heard about it even if it was done in email or text messages, though.

[Yavin4]

16. I agree with this.

Bush II, McCain, and Romney didn't get this vote because they're globalist, imperialist, capitalists at their core. They don't really see color other than the color of money.

[uponit7771]

13. Could be all of the above, we NO DOUBT need a post mortem

[Horse with no Name]

17. I know that every single Republican friend/family voted

Every. Last. One.

I think we thought that the new ones were all for us but apparently that isn’t so.