AZ, GA, PA at 93, 90, 94 respectively on predictit.

[triron]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/Prez-Election

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

1. I really, really wish they'd use the standard

percent sign. %.

[Statistical]

3. It is the price of the contract

Last edited Fri Nov 6, 2020, 02:27 PM - Edit history (1)

All contracts at expiration are always worth $1 (if true) or $0 (if false). So a contract priced at $0.90 is wagering $0.90 to get $1.00 (not $1 plus your $0.90 back just $1.00 total meaning a $0.10 profit). A contract priced at $0.10 is wagering $0.10 to get $1.00.

So predictit is never going to use percentages because those are the actual current price of the contracts being bought and sold among players. If right now you bought one contract priced at $0.90 it would cost you ninety cents in cash and then the value will fluctuate based on demand until eventually it is either worth $0 or $1.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

4. Thank you for explaining that.

I'd delete my message, since it turns out it was profoundly ignorant, but then your explanation would be hanging out there and not make sense.

Clearly I don't gamble enough to understand these things.

[Statistical]

5. I don't think it is a bad question. For someone who doesn't use the site it is very unclear.

Might make sense for predictit to make a page that shows everything as percent for people quoting and referencing.

[Statistical]

2. Also as someone who plays on predictit it tends to underestimate odds near the end

Last edited Fri Nov 6, 2020, 02:28 PM - Edit history (1)

Someone who bought a contract at $0.10 and it is now worth $0.94 may sell simply to lock in profit and move to more attractive wagers. Also some wild money gamblers will take the reverse hoping for a huge paydays. Then there are just Trumpers who can't accept it is possible Trump could lose.

So 90% to 94% is probably the lower bound with the actual odds even better.

[Trumpdumper]

6. for the wild money possibilities ...

I think NC is a good shot. You can buy a Biden contract in NC for 10 cents right now. From what I've seen, there are 250K to 300K ballots outstanding, and Trump has a 77K lead. If the uncounted votes break 2 to 1 for Joe, he wins the state, and you will receive a 900 percent payoff.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

7. Another question.

Do people really buy one contract for $0.10? Or do they put down, say a hundred or a thousand dollars and get however many contracts that amount would purchase?

[Statistical]

8. The contracts are priced $0.01 to $1.00 but yeah most people buy more than one contract.

In theory though if you just wanted to buy one you could. You can also buy thousands or tens of thousand of contracts.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

9. Thank you.