PA provisional ballots

[angrychair]

HOLY CRAP!! There are 100,000 provisional ballots out there that may be mostly republican that I have never heard discussed before.

That has me worried.

[SoFlaBro]

1. Link?

Are you concern trolling?

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Yes they are.

There's 100,000 provisional ballots but there is zero evidence they're Trump leaning.

[BusyBeingBest]

11. They don't know how the provisional ballots are leaning--

and with the unusually high number of them, and whether or not some will be tossed out, they just don't know.

[angrychair]

12. Kornacki himself

said he thinks they might be more republican leaning but yes, that are not positive.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. No he didn't. He said he didn't know but some could be.

Stop spreading fearporn.

[angrychair]

28. not fear, facts

that 100,000 is a huge issue that I've never heard discussed until just now. That's crap. I feel like that is something that should have been brought up before now.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. You are not spreading facts. You're either lying or misinformed.

He did not say they may be mostly Republican. He said provisional ballots in REPUBLICAN COUNTIES tend to be more Republican than mail-in ballots have proven to be.

There's plenty of provisional ballots in the Philadelphia that will not be Republican.

[LanternWaste]

70. Let us know when you get to the Facts portion of your show then...

As until now, yours has been nothing but unsupported allegations spun as badly as can be spun.

I wouldn't call that Concern Trolling, though... despite it fitting rather accurately within the definition.

[octoberlib]

18. Kornacki doesn't know shit and shouldn't have commented either way.

[SoFlaBro]

16. From what I understand, they are ballots cast in person in Philly....

....where the in person vote was challenged - a.k.a. "largely Democratic"

[Cosmocat]

36. Yeah, I would assume it would be about an even split

nm

[angrychair]

7. No, it was just discussed live

on MSNBC. Kornacki and Chris Hayes just went through it.

[demmiblue]

15. John King, as well. n.t

[USALiberal]

13. You have 17 posts! You are calling out the poster?? nt

[SoFlaBro]

21. What is the post threshold to ask a question?

n/t

[PTWB]

66. What does my post count need to be to be immune from being wrong?

Or from spreading misinformation?

[LanternWaste]

72. Or simply engendering credibility?

Irony. Fe + y.

[LizBeth]

3. They are sitting Biden up for Presidency. They certainly are in the know. It is all done but called.

[Mister Ed]

4. What's the source of the info? I'd like to read up on it. n/t

[BusyBeingBest]

6. Kornacki explanation.

[StarryNite]

5. All the more reason for Arizona and Nevada to come through.

[oldtime dfl_er]

8. Kornacki said it

just a minute ago

[Drunken Irishman]

9. He did not claim they're mostly Republican. That's a lie.

[oldtime dfl_er]

20. I didnt see it

just repeating a tweet I saw. I should be better than that.

[samnsara]

30. lets not use the term 'lie'......he said its a possibility

..that the ballots are from ppl who came in and voted after there was an absentee ballot sent to them. Could be trumpers just dont know yet. But its hardly a 'lie'....

[LisaL]

37. And why would they be republicans?

NT

[Drunken Irishman]

38. They're either lying or misinformed. Either way, the accusation is without merit.

And frankly irresponsible to post knowing people are on edge.

[angrychair]

61. I went back and listened

to the exchange between Kornacki and Hayes and he clearly states their are more provisional ballots from republican areas than normal and also states that when provisional ballots have been counted in republican friendly places he says they are not favoring Biden.

That was their exchange and I find it insulting that you are calling me a liar and irresponsible when I only posted based on that exchange which I characterized accurately.

[BusyBeingBest]

64. I heard the whole thing, angrychair, you are right--

the gist of their exchange was that it's possible there will be more Repub provisional ballots compared to the mail-in ballot ratio that clearly favors Biden.

[Drunken Irishman]

65. You said they were mostly Republican.

That is what you said. That is not what he said. He didn't even say they may be mostly Republican, just that provisional ballots could run more Republican than mail-in ballots in these counties have.

So, I don't take back what I say. In fact, you just reinforced it.

[angrychair]

73. no, that is NOT what my OP said

HOLY CRAP!! There are 100,000 provisional ballots out there that may be mostly republican that I have never heard discussed before.

Quoted my OP above bolding my key wording of "MAY BE mostly republican" which is a fair characterization of "more than normal"

Please keep this civil. You can not agree with me or Kornacki's characterization but there is no reason to disparage people's integrity. I clearly related the conversation fairly in my OP.

[Drunken Irishman]

74. And he didn't say they may be mostly Republican.

[writes3000]

10. Steve Kornacki fear mongering to make people tune in. Biden is winning PA, AZ, GA and NV.

He will win.

[samnsara]

17. i heard that as well :(

[Demsrule86]

19. Not true...many of them are from voters who did not receive their mail in ballots and rejected

mail in ballots that were cured.

[OhZone]

22. Are provisional DAY-of voting?

Cause voting machines were not used?

Weren't there a lot of Day of voting in Democratic areas too?

[Ms. Toad]

42. Provisional ballots include two things

Absentee provisional ballots - people who requested an absentee ballot but who showed up at the polls to vote anyway. As long as they did not return the absentee ballot, that day-of ballot will count. People who showed up at the polls leaned Republican.

Traditional provisional ballots - People who moved and didn't change their voting address in time, people who don't have ID, voters who were putged from the polls but weren't aware of the purge, etc. These generally lean Democratic - and generally have pretty high rejection rate (20%)

[OhZone]

55. Oh--

That's different than Jersey.

I went to the primary in person, and they forced all in-person to use provisional, because our Gov wanted Everyone to vote by mail.

[arlyellowdog]

23. Senator Casey just said they are Democratic

He said they will grow Biden’s lead

[LisaL]

27. Provisional ballots usually favor democrats.

NT

[Ms. Toad]

51. Not necessarily in this election

Traditional provisional ballots do tend to favor Democrats.

This cycle there are the Absentee provisionals. These are people who requested an absentee ballot, then for whatever reason decided they would rather vote in person on election day. People who show up at the polls on **this** election day trend Republican - so the expectation is that this tendency is expected to apply to these absentee provisionals.

[LisaL]

59. Republicans also tended to not request absentee ballots to begin with.

NT

[Ms. Toad]

67. Remember - they view requested absentee ballots differently

than unsolicited mailed ballots (vote-by-mail, in their lingo).

The SOS there suggested that the traditional expectations about absentee ballots do not necessarily apply to these because of the higher number of absentee provisionals.

[SoFlaBro]

40. Sen. Casey has been on the money at every turn during the vote count.

n/t

[kenziemom06]

24. What was their reasoning?

What was their reasoning that they may be mostly Republican? I work on my local Election Board here in PA and provisional ballots were mainly for folks who requested mail-in ballots and didn't receive them, with a small amount being folks who didn't appear on the local voting roll. No reason at all to think they'd be mostly Republican.

[RAB910]

32. Republicans wanted to vote in person. So they wouldn't have requested mail in ballots

[kenziemom06]

57. Right

Most of the provisional ballots in my district were people who requested ballots and didn't receive them, i.e. Democrats.

Also, in PA, Repiblicans who had mail-in ballots but wanted to vote in person could remit their mail-in ballot at the polls, sign an affidavit, and then vote in person. They did not vote with a provisional ballot.

[NoMoreRepugs]

25. CORNackee is a tool IMO.

[samnsara]

31. i like his energy...

[Thekaspervote]

35. Cornackee is right ..that guy may know the numbers and should stick to that

[Happy Hoosier]

26. There is NO reason to think they are republican leaning.

You seem to be the KING of concern posting.

[angrychair]

41. My OP was more an expression

of frustration that this hasn't been discussed before and that Kornacki insinuated that they could potentially be more republican leaning.

Seems a huge thing to not talk about until now.

[Thekaspervote]

50. Indeed more showmanship..makes me dislike him all the more

[Happy Hoosier]

56. A number of data analysts have talked about this and....

Why those votes are VERY likely to lean democratic.

[angrychair]

68. I have not heard it discussed

so it was a little shocking and Kornacki stated that there was more provisional ballots from republican areas than normal. Those were his words...I have no idea.
I feel concern is a reasonable and valid response and we should always be realistic about our situation.

[Happy Hoosier]

71. I mean no offense...

but you seem to hit the panic button frequently.

Maybe word your posts a little more... I dunno... calmly?

Simply put, the provisionals are MOSTLY associated with mail-ins that did not arrive and these requests very heavily Democratic. And they will be heaviest in the big cities... also quite democratic. I don't know what Kornacki said, but dude needs some sleep.

[VMA131Marine]

29. With mail-ins, Biden is likely to end up with a lead of

about 75,000.
The typical acceptance rate of provisional ballots (i.e. the ones ultimately counted) is about 76%. Let’s call it 80%. So that’s 80,000 valid votes from the 100,000 provisionals. If Trump gets 80% of the provisionals then he will net 48,000 votes.
But, Biden’s lead is 75,000 so Trump would still be behind by ~27,000 votes. And that’s a best case scenario for Trump.

[angrychair]

34. good explanation

appreciated.

[Thekaspervote]

45. TY.. I really question why kornacki doesn't address those kinds of number facts

Which seems obvious..let’s keep ppl on the edge..tune in tune in...NO..tune out when you do that kind of shit

[arlyellowdog]

39. Casey said his lead always grows with provisionals

[LisaL]

43. Yes, because provisionals tend to favor democrats.

NT

[ananda]

44. So why did the Reeps sue PA..

.. to throw out provisional ballots?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/11/03/republicans-sue-pennsylvania-to-throw-out-provisional-ballots/?sh=2c1f10c51873

Republican candidates in Pennsylvania sued Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar in the state’s appellate court Tuesday night, arguing that voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected should not be permitted to cast provisional ballots instead, and Pennsylvania should throw out any votes in the battleground state that were cast that way.

[LisaL]

48. Did it work?

NT

[octoberlib]

49. Bingo!

[arlyellowdog]

52. This is such a good point

[BusyBeingBest]

62. They're not asking ALL provisional ballots thrown out--

just ones that were cast after the voters' mail-in ballots were already rejected. That's a specific category--Provisional ballots are a broader category than that.

[brooklynite]

46. PANIC!!!!!

THE SKY IS FALLING!!!

THE BUILDING IS ON FIRE!!!

WTF!!!

OMG!!!

AEIOU!!!

EIEIO!!!

[LanternWaste]

75. Kinda like blaming a warehouse accident on terrorists?

Or some band-new form of panic and rumor?

Old MacDonald, indeed.

[octoberlib]

47. Republicans are suing to have the provisional ballots thrown out. That tells me everything I need to

know. Kornacki's trying to come up with an excuse for why the PA race isn't being called. It's lame.

[Cosmocat]

53. about the provisionals

We literally have never had to do a provisional ballot in the 10 plus years I have worked our poll, and:

1) They very well could not be cast, because most were due to confusion about mailed in ballots. IF the elector had their mail in ballot cast, the provisional would be invalidated.

2) There are other reasons they might be invalidated, like if they were not registered in the voting precinct at all.

3) I honestly can not say if they would "lean" R or D because it is so random, not something that voter ideology would play a role in, more life circumstances or being an inactive voter. Though, come to think of it, if most of them are due to some kind of mixup with mail in ballots, that would be Dish leaning.

[BusyBeingBest]

58. Thanks.

[jcgoldie]

54. Kornacki is just covering for the NBC decision desk

I think he's done a great job throughout this process explaining where the votes are coming from and how they differ geographically chronologically and based on mail or in person voting. At this point I feel like he's trying to inflate the doubt a bit to justify the fact that they haven't called this thing even though he has no say in that decision.

[LizBeth]

60. Is this what you are talking about? Republicans trying to stop counting because they are to Biden's

advantage.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142622061

[VMA131Marine]

69. Different issue

Trump team has sued to invalidate any ballots that were received after Election Day, even if they were postmarked on or before. This is a continuation of the suit filed before the election.
It was the PA Supreme Court that said ballots postmarked on or before Election Day and received by today should be counted. Trump sued saying only the State Legislature can change the method of counting the ballots. SCOTUS refused to act on the case, but Thomas, Gorsuch, Alito, and Kavanaugh wrote a dissent indicating they would have heard the case. Team Trump is now hoping that Amy Coney Barrett will be the deciding vote to take the case and throw these votes out.
Even if this is successful, we appear to be talking about hundreds of ballots, not tens of thousands.

[StarryNite]

63. PA Provisional Votes per the NYT

Then there are the provisional ballots, votes cast by people who couldn’t initially be verified as eligible when they showed up to vote. We don’t know how many exist in the state, but these ballots are usually disproportionately in Philadelphia and tend to pad the Democratic lead by tens of thousands of votes.

This year, two factors complicate an easy analysis of the provisional ballots. Mr. Trump might be helped because the Election Day vote was more Republican this year. On the other hand, the provisional ballot count includes a new group this year: people who received an absentee ballot in the mail but showed up to vote in person and did not surrender their absentee ballot at the polling place. These voters had to vote provisionally to ensure their votes weren’t counted twice.

It is hard to know how many votes fall into this category, but given the consternation about the reliability of mail voting — on both sides — it could be a lot. These ballots may not be as favorable for Democrats as the overall absentee ballot count, since Democrats had a higher mail ballot return rate than Republicans — perhaps reflecting the president’s criticism of the method. But Democrats still outnumbered Republicans, 52 percent to 34 percent, among mail ballots that hadn’t been returned heading into the election.

At this point, the only serious question is whether the networks will make a projection in Pennsylvania with Mr. Biden holding a nominal edge, or whether they’ll wait for him to build a more significant lead. Sometimes, they wait for a candidate to build a lead outside of the range of a recount — 0.5 of a point in Pennsylvania — before making a projection. There was a similar situation in Michigan on Wednesday, as Mr. Biden took a lead that was sure to grow, but the networks didn’t call the state until Mr. Biden led by a full point. He now leads there by around three points.

If all of the absentee votes are counted, Mr. Biden ought to lead by over a percentage point before provisional ballots report — which ought to be enough for a call. Who knows when we’ll get there.

[link:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/upshot/election-update-biden-pennsylvania.html|