the scary thing is, i think it's now clear donnie would have won easily if it weren't for covid-19

[unblock]

and his utterly botched handling of the crisis.

i think the whole denial, refusing to help states, interfering with good medical advice, refusing to have a national plan, not encouraging proper social distancing, trying to get everyone back to work and back to school prematurely, and most notably, the whole anti-mask thing -- all of this crap, i think it cost him a lot of votes.

a lot of the selfish republicans and independents who are happy to support a bigot and a crook as long as they get their tax cut realize that any tax cut the benefit from doesn't offset the cost of a lost job or business due to a president so incompetent that he makes a crisis like this drag out much longer and damage the economy much more than it needed to.

and with all that, our win, at least in the electoral college, was pretty narrow.


which means that had he handled it remotely competently, he very likely would have won, despite still being a massive bigot, sexist, racist, xenophobic, criminal, incompetent sh*thead.

scary.



eta: in terms of what-ifs, i think there are two scenarios.
(1) what if donnie had handled covid-19 remotely competently and
(2) what if covid-19 had never happened at all.

i was thinking in terms of (1) when i posted this, and let the limited space for the subject line make my header a bit unclear on that.
in terms of (2), i can see that there are not having covid-19 happen at all changes many things politically and maybe it's less clear donnie would have won in that case, though i'm still pretty sure he would have won even then.

but certainly, had we done what most other countries did, had a 8-weeks or so lock down starting in march or even february and then massive distribution of ppe and ramping up of hospital space and properly encouraged social distancing and mask-wearing everywhere and then reopened cautiously with massive testing and contact tracing and quarantining, then i think the economy would have largely bounced back to where it was and donnie would have been hailed as a capable leader through a crisis and he would have won easily.

[W_HAMILTON]

1. I think the opposite.

If this were just a "normal" election, he would have had his ass kicked just like in 2018. COVID kept us Democrats from getting out there on the streets and registering people and door knocking, it meant we had to switch to mail-in ballots that were inevitably fucked with by DeJoy, etc.

[Buckeyeblue]

21. I agree with you but for a different reason

I think covid restrictions motivated unlikely voters to vote for Trump because they don't want further restrictions. It's just a hunch on my part but I think that's why polls were off.

[W_HAMILTON]

28. That could be true as well.

Basically, anything that threw a wrench into this and kept it from being a "normal" election only served to help Trump. In a normal ho-hum election, even without COVID, he would have gotten his ass kicked even worse.

[Arkansas Granny]

2. That's true. If he had come up with a clear cut plan and had taken charge of the situation,

he would have won it hands down.

[SKKY]

3. Probably, and even if he had handled the COVID-19 crisis with a bit more...

...I don't know, competence? He probably still would have won. But, he didn't, so he won't.

[C_U_L8R]

4. Trump botched his whole Presidency

Just imagine, through one way or another, you find yourself in the Oval Office with all the opportunity in the world before you to make tremendous change and good for the world. What does Trump do?? He spends the next 4 years rage tweeting, playing golf and packing courts with incompetent bootlickers. Every morning, he could have woke up and decided to do just one small nice thing for the country or humanity... but no, the lazy ignorant fuck squandered the whole thing. He will forgotten for accomplishing absolutely nothing.

[Wanderlust988]

5. Without Covid, the economy would be fine and we would've lost everything

I hate to think about it. Covid saved our democracy outright.

[W_HAMILTON]

29. Not true.

We were looking to be heading into a recession even before COVID. Many of the economic numbers had been faltering and many economists were predicting an outright recession sometime in the near future (this year or potentially 2021).

[Thekaspervote]

6. Not sure about that. I saw an article that said the areas that voted for trump have the highest

Cases and fatalities of covid

[Resistance1]

7. With his supporters, I really do believe

that he could shoot the pope point blank in the head and they would still vote for him

[ananda]

17. Trump could even kill them, and they would still..

.. oh wait, he did.. and they did.

[jcgoldie]

8. disagree

I think covid helped him. Its counterintuitive but based on exit polling responses it sure seems like an aweful lot of people want to engage in wishful thinking regarding the pandemic. I dont think they feel he handled it well so much as they just don't want to shut down again and they'd rather ignore it and hope it goes away which they know is Trump's policy.

[Polybius]

11. Allan Lichtman says Trump would have easily won

He's never wrong on predictions.

[Jim__]

9. There was bound to be some crisis. No matter what it was, he couldn't handle it.

Look at the COVID crisis. We had pandemic experts in China to work with the Chinese government to handle something like this. Trump brought them home. He's a business man, he doesn't pay people to just sit around.

What ever went wrong, he would have no clue as to how to handle it. In his life, he handles crises by blaming someone else. He was always sufficiently protected that he got away with it. The president of the United States has to be able to deal with crises. He was bound to fail.

[JI7]

10. The limited campaigning was something that hurt Democrats

so it's difficult to say.

[DonaldsRump]

12. I'm not sure that's correct

If I recall correctly, Joe has led in a head to head match up with Trump for 3 years.

I can proudly say that I was with Joe from day one. Americans tend to like outsiders as Presidents (George H. W. Bush was the lone exception to that in say the last 50 years or so), but not this time. I think people wanted a return to normalcy.

Remember that Trump did stuff that got him impeached because he was so terrified of Joe. This was well before the pandemic.

[Polybius]

13. If Trump kept his same positions but didn't Tweet insane stuff and was polite in the first debate...

He would have won easily.

[Earthshine2]

14. I completely agree that were it not for COVID, Trump would have won re-election.

Look how close these state races are.

If he didn't scare and piss off some of senior citizens with his pandemic malfeasance, we'd be heading deep into autocracy right now.

[yonder]

15. It sure looks that way. Hard to believe what this country has become.

For many, quality of life equates with immediate gratification and we have a media/marketing machine that can provide just that.

[Brainfodder]

16. Don't agree, He hasn't done squat to gain support in the 4 years, but lots to lose it!

[Grokenstein]

18. As horrifying and depressing a thought as it was

I've long said all he had to do to stay in office was one good thing. But that's utterly contrary to his nature.

There was never going to be a happy ending once he got in. We're delighted, as we should be, that he's toast now, but that's four years of hell and misery and loss and regression we might have avoided, should have avoided. Hundreds of thousands of tragedies that are going to continue to pile up because of the GOP, and now they're going to lay it at the feet of Biden and Harris as if they possess magic wands to cure it all instantly even as Republicans seek to block their every move. We're going to be coping with the angry cult for years, and there's bound to be at least one Timothy McVeigh among them.

The GOP is already updating their list of smarmy idiot puppets to fill the role of their next dictator-wannabe, knowing that the poorly educated will launch themselves at the feet of any "strongman" who promises to hurt the people they hate and give them a tax cut. Trump is the weak man's idea of a strong man; as long as we maintain a moron culture the United States is the weak nation's idea of a strong nation.

[Docreed2003]

19. I think the pandemic was a rare moment of crisis

That was handed to Trump on a silver platter. It was a ready made chance for him to "become presidential". He wouldn't have even had to do that much, just defer to people who were experts and follow their advice. But, much like the rest of his life's endeavors, he chose to follow a path that he thought would produce the most personal benefit. At the end of the day, he just couldn't not be Donald Trump.

Imagine for a second if Trump had insisted on masks, used the full power of government to produce more masks and distributed them. Just one, simple move....do you think we'd have near the number of idiots running around without masks in grocery stores? I don't. In fact, had he done that, I think we'd be seeing his armed hooligans wearing masks and intimidating anyone who wasn't wearing one!

[anamnua]

20. Yes. Covid-19 made the difference.

God works in strange ways

[torius]

22. I think he would've lost anyway.

I think Covid just rallied his supporters. Even the ones taking precautionsthink it’s mean to criticize him about it. He did not end up losing many seniors. I think the incorrect polls showing Biden way way ahead rallied them also.

[kurtcagle]

23. I disagree

Several things were converging on Trump since late last year - the economy was beginning to weaken even before Covid hit, the civil unrest was already there and likely was just being dampened by the pandemic, we would have found ourselves in a war in the Chinese Sea and gotten our asses kicked when some brilliant plan of his backfired. It's always hard to evaluate what if's, but I have a feeling that Trump would have blown it the same way he blew the Pandemic.

[Arthur_Frain]

24. I can tell you pretty authoritatively

We won’t even be able to agree on why it was so close.

As a nation, right now, we have no idea what our identity is, and we will never reach an agreement on that either.

We’re pretty lost right now, Biden in the White House or no.

[cherish44]

25. People here were waiting for Trump to tell them what to think

about COVID. Had he been all serious about it being dangerous, they would have too. Sheeple. It's easier than having to think.

[treestar]

26. If not for Covid, there would have been something else for

him to mismanage spectacularly. His general behavior in office has been abysmal. The economy would still have problems because of his stupid tax cuts, tariffs and other moves. He in incompetent at everything and has filled the government with toadies to curry favor rather than experts. If not Covid, it would have shown up some other way.

[genxlib]

27. I don't think it is that obvious

Since a lot of people just want this COVID thing to be over and were willing to engage in wishful thinking of the madman. Even those who take it seriously may want to stay open just so they don't fall further into poverty. As a group, I think we have to come to the realization that supporting a lock down can be a privileged position when your livelihood does not rely on an effected industry. I have come to believe that there are many people who need to be able to work (or have their kids in school) even if it is a threat to their health.

I think it is an important question because if we come down too hard on a COVID lockdown in January, the backlash could be severe.

[genxlib]

30. I would also posit an alternate threory

I think the death of George Floyd was the biggest single impact that was detrimental to our chances.

The initial protest movement achieved widespread support but when limited pockets of them started to turn violent, we played right into Trumps hands. The Video of those riots along with a broad misunderstanding of the poorly worded catch phase "Defund the Police" was a huge hammer used to beat us up. If you are wondering why white women still went for Trump, the trumped up threat of racial violence in the suburbs resonated. If it had been one week, I think it would have passed. But it went on for months and flared up over and over again even up until last week.

And I know that there were right wing agitators causing much of the trouble. And I know the protesters were 99% peaceful. But it was not a good look for us. And when you need the electorate to make those kinds of distinctions, it is a losing position to be in.

[Blasphemer]

31. I've always believed this. There was a mass delusion about his competence in handling the economy.nt

[vercetti2021]

32. Could have went anyway

Covid could have propelled him

We got cropped and couldn't campaign.

People voted based on their wallets and shutdowns.

It's just a huge what if.

[Blue_true]

33. Yep. If he had remotely handled SARS-COV-2 competently, he would have walked to re-election.

That is scary, given all the other setbacks that he has brought onto the country.

I was talking to a working class person earlier today, if you do that, it is easy to understand why Trump has a hold on those people. They believe any bullshit rumor. They actually believe that democrats are chasing republican observers out of the room that votes are being counted in and putting pizza boxes up over the windows, NO SHIT!!!!!
They believe that Trump’s trade deficit with China was far, far lower than for President Obama, and if it isn’t, it’s President Obama’s fault. Now you know why republicans viciously attack public education for the masses, they want their kids to go to private school for a top education while they keep the masses ignorant and believing all types of bullshit theories. That guy was not alone, he had been trading this bullshit with two other working class people before I had a chance discussion with him about Chinese advances in business and engineering that are surpassing us (all thanks to Trump’s actions over 4 years).

[alarimer]

34. But Covid changed how the Dems campaigned.

They had to, to protect themselves, their staff and the people. While Trump went ahead and had his superspreader rallies. I think Biden did a better job adapting to digital campaigning than some of the other candidates did and I think that is at least partly why at least some failed.

I suspect that changed a lot. In normal year, I think Trump still loses. The focus then would have been on his other crimes. We would have been talking about his taxes (notice how that disappeared almost immediately). Covid pretty much sucked all the air out of the room and rightfully so.

[ucrdem]

35. He was already toast from mishandling a string of police shootings and protests.

Covid could have conceivably saved him by distracting the electorate from his awful statements but then George Floyd was murdered in May and that was all she wrote. And of course, he bungled the US Covid response. He's been a dead man walking since Super Tuesday.

[unblock]

36. **to all those who believe that covid-19 hampered our ability to get out the vote**:

i appreciate that when playing "what-if", when we change one assumption we can never know how many other things will change as well, and certainly this is a sophomoric exercise as there's no way to prove anything.

and i agree that we didn't go door-to-door like usual due to covid-19 to gotv.

that said, i don't think the argument that it hampered our ability to, one way or another, get out the vote, jibes well with the fact that this election produces the greatest turnout percentage since 1908 and biden/harris got more votes than any other candidate in history.

what we did was certainly different, but for whatever reasons, it worked.


might it have been even higher in the absence of covid-19 at all, or at least in given donnie's inept handling of it?

we obviously can't know for sure, but it's hard to look at record numbers and be convinced that they were depressed (other than by direct voter suppression, which obviously we had a lot of, but that's another topic...)

[GusBob]

37. He blew it with the election himself

He tried to use the rona to win

Told his cult: dont mail your ballots in, its not safe
Vote in person it is safe

Now he is getting torched via the mail

[unblock]

38. i think he completely lost the plot over the last year.

he finally succeeded in surrounding himself completely with sycophants. he always had sycophants, of course, but it seemed he had enough people who could figure a way to get some degree of reality through to him to keep him viable.

this last year it became apparent that the last of anyone willing to tell him anything he didn't want to hear had gone and he was left fully confident that whatever delusion of good news he wished were so, actually was so, with no one left to tell him otherwise.

and so with that he went into nutcase territory, and i think it finally bit him in the butt.

[Yavin4]

39. Asking Trump to manage anything competently is like asking me to close games for the Yankees.

You cannot do what you cannot do.