Ohio exit polling 39% R. 31% D

[Tribetime]

Registered voters is 42%R and 40% D in Ohio . I just find it curious the lower % of turnout of Ds in this election.

[Botany]

1. One explanation

[TreasonousBastard]

3. Howzat explain exit polling?

[Tribetime]

6. I hope in one way you're right and this can be corrected

In future ..otherwise I have to believe way more people voted for this orange fuck.

[Botany]

11. The #s in OH and across America make no sense to me

In OH we had 3.5 million votes already "in the bank" before election day because
of early voting* and to achieve the results we had would have needed > 70 to 75%
red voting on election day.

I worked doing election protection work in a blue precinct and we had incredible
turn out there. Now sadly I know that much of OH has become Alabama north
after years of hate talk radio, fox news, right wing "pastors" spreading their bile,
and generational deep seeded racism and ignorance but the idea that we had a drop
off in democratic voting** is laughable. My best GUESS is that "they" are padding the
rural vote somehow.

Remember Mitch McConnell has fought and won in stopping increased security for
our voting systems.

* my best guess is that the majority of those were blue votes

** some of the drop off in in person voting on election day might be because of all the early voting.

[Tribetime]

14. Thank you for your insight and hard work

[carpetbagger]

2. Probably not the same numbers

I can't look at this in detail, but Ohio has open primaries. So the 42 and 40 percent numbers are probably different than self-id, and may.not represent the same voter pool. Just a guess.

[My Pet Orangutan]

4. The 2020 'exit polling' is a kludge.

They took the election day questionnaire results, then tried to adjust with telephone polling for the 100 million early voters. The election day results were skewed GOP but they had no independent data to unwind the overall bias, let alone the demographic groups. So while the results were not totally unrecallable, they cannot, CANNOT be compared with the all exit questionnaire results of 2016 and earlier.

[ecdab]

8. 100%

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

5. Party registration doesn't equal party ID.

In a lot of states that shift over time many people don’t bother to update the registrations despite only voting the other way from a certain point.

For example, West Virginia STILL has more registered Democrats, despite last going blue in 1996.

[Ms. Toad]

7. Republicans were doing vote flushing.

Ordinarily, there aren't any Republican observers. This year there were - and they took the 11 am and 4 pm lists of people who had voted, marked off those who had already voted - and sent GOTV folks out to flush the rest to the polls.

In my precinct - there were a grand total of 7 Republican voters at 11:00 AM (4.5 hours into polling). By the end of the day there were about 55 (8.5 hours later). So based on the 11 AM tally, there should have been roughly 21 at the end of the day, not 55.

The other issue impacting quantity of votes is the more transient nature of many poor/minority communities. The average number of provisional ballots is usually about 3%. In the poor minority community in which I was observing we had 7% provisionals - and - turned away about the same number of voters who were registered in a diffferent precinct (since the last election) and had to be sent to a diffrent voting location. Some of those will have vanished rather than go through the hassle. Neither of those two groups would be reflected in our vote tallies.

[hedda_foil]

10. Keeping track of which of your voters have already voted and pushing the rest to GOTV is standard.

If the Dems in your area didn't use those procedures just as the Repugs did, then they were disturbingly less organized and prepared. If this happened across Ohio, the local, state and national party organizations screwed up and a post mortem is badly needed, followed by a strong party reorganization effort to prevent a repeat.

[Ms. Toad]

15. They didn't.

In my experience, from 2004 to present, vote protection and GOTV efforts are separate roles - with at least election day GOTV activities being carried out by independent entities. (When I did it in 2004, I believe it was Moveon.org).

On election day the dem focus has been more on saving the votes of the people who make it to the polls than on flushing people to the polls.

[blm]

9. A lot of Dems voted by mail. More Rs showed up on Election Day.

[hedda_foil]

12. Yes, but the Dem organization should have had a list of who voted by mail and who hadn't.

The point is to GOTV using the most up to date info on your voters as possible. Not being able to canvas door to door vs the opposition who pretended there was no pandemic, was a handicap but not an excuse.

[Hoyt]

13. As we've learned, polling ain't an exact science . . . . especially when the universe is suspect.