How close are we really to a vaccine? One that is safe and highly effective? Not 40 or 50% effective, but at least 80-90%, preferable 95%. How many doses? Will it need to be kept at subzero temperatures? At least some of those being tested need that. How will we get those doses to rural third world places with no or unreliable electricity? There are over 7 billion people on the planet. How long do you suppose it will take to manufacture and distribute 7 billion doses of a vaccine? Or 14 billion if two shots are needed.
People talk about herd immunity as if it's some simple thing, easy to achieve. Well, think of it this way. For all of the thousands of years things like smallpox, chicken pox, measles, mumps, and so on were around, and despite the fact that huge percentages of people got those diseases, herd immunity was never achieved. People still got them. And still get them if vaccination levels drop below some critical point.
If every single human on the face of the planet could literally stay home for a month, not go to a single store or church or school or visit a friend, then maybe this would die out. But honestly, aside from the fact that literally every single person cannot possibly stay home for a month, even if that could happen, I suspect there would be hidden reservoirs of the disease that would show up. I might very well be wrong about that. But think about the persistence of so many diseases, and I think it should be obvious this is not going to go away. Ever. It will always be with us. If we are very lucky, it will mutate to be far less lethal and more benign. The way smallpox did in the 19th century.
This is what I've been saying (and apologies to all who may have already seen this). Let's pretend it's 1939 and you and I are planning to go to Europe next year. We are happy and excited; we've been working extra jobs, saving all of our money, and it's finally going to happen. Then September rolls around, and WWII breaks out. Oh, crap. We're definitely not going to Europe next year. But we're optimistic and hope the war will end soon and we'll go in 1941. But the war doesn't end soon. It doesn't finally end until the middle of 1945. The soonest we might possibly take that long-postponed trip will be 1946, maybe a few years later. And when we finally do go to Europe, it will be utterly unlike the Europe we'd have seen had we gone in 1939. And it will never, ever again be like that earlier Europe.
It will be much the same with Covid. It's going to last longer and be more devastating than people anticipate. When it's finally over, meaning when there is finally a vaccine that is safe and effective, we will finally be able to come out of lockdowns and isolation. We will be able to resume travel, even take cruises. But it won't be at all like it was in 2019.
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