General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat's happening in AZ? Predictit down to 64 and falling. now back to76.
msongs
(67,193 posts)Statistical
(19,264 posts)I still think Biden will win AZ but of the four (GA, PA, NV, AZ) it is most shaky right now. Of course this could change radically if the next few batches favor Biden.
The good news is well Biden doesn't need AZ. The bad news is I will lose my EC margin spread on predictit if AZ flips.
triron
(21,915 posts)Look to be clear I still think Biden will win in AZ (80%+ chance) and even if he doesn't win in AZ he will still win the race. However if Biden loses any of the four states AZ is the most likely and that is what the market is showing in the reduced contract price. If Biden does better than average in the next couple batches that could change quick.
Cha
(295,914 posts)that's not "shaky" at all!
bullimiami
(13,043 posts)and theres 120,000 still out.
i dont know where the remaining votes are.
trump needs 57% of all thats left to go ahead.
Its possible but probably not.
GA I dont know why its not called.
They have no ballots left to count. Unless they find a handful here and there. Biden is up by over 9000.
Recounts dont find 9000 votes. Typically less than hundreds at worst.
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)dsc
(52,130 posts)Pinal county is very GOP apparently and they have the most votes left. I think Biden will make it but thankfully he doesn't need AZ.
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)So that seems like a wash to me.
Cha
(295,914 posts)feeling heart pounding about AZ.. I want that so badly!
TY, Q!
LeftInTX
(24,554 posts)I have no idea how AZ does provisional ballots, but in Texas, you have to go to the elections office 5 days after the election and "Cure" your ballot. In Texas generally they are only given to people who are not registered to vote. So, you have to somehow show up with proof that you are registered to vote when elections does not have proof that you are registered. (Sometimes elections office has a mistake like a wrong address...a typo etc, name changed, but it generally is an exception)
nsd
(2,406 posts)Predictit is not a site to think too deeply about. People actively try to manipulate prices to make short-term gains.
clutterbox1830
(395 posts)RandySF
(57,636 posts)tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)Wanderlust988
(509 posts)They dropped about 7,000 ballots and Trump got 66% of them. I think that's the best left for Trump. From here on out, it won't be that kind for him.
Cha
(295,914 posts)StarryNite
(9,364 posts)I really, really hope we can hold on.