Here's my deconstruct of the 2020 election (it'll be long, folks).

[Drunken Irishman]

The summary, though, is that it could have been much worse for the Democrats - much, much worse.

The fact remains is that the signs of this election playing out before us was there from the start. Trump's approval, despite impeachment, despite his bungling of the COVID pandemic, despite all his bluster and his bullying populism, never cratered. He never saw the total collapse of support like Jimmy Carter in 1980 and H.W. Bush in 1992.

In many ways, 2020 was being played in a similar landscape as 2012, except Obama was battling back economic concerns while Trump was battling back concerns over his handling of the pandemic. To be sure, the economy did crater, and Trump's numbers, despite everyone not understanding why he still bested the Democrats head-to-head here, saw a significant decline throughout 2020 - but it was always going to be the case that the general public, who, rightfully or not, approved of the job he was doing back in February in terms of the economy, were not going to flat-out blame Donald Trump for the economy. They saw it as an extension of the pandemic and despite the fact his handling of the pandemic was leading to the economic struggles, that narrative was not succeeding. In fact, if there is one criticism of the Biden Campaign, which I think was nearly flawlessly ran, by the way, it's that I don't think he tied the recession to Trump's COVID handling as effectively as he could have.

But it's also a reality that, the last couple months, we've had, on its face, good economic numbers. They might be bad once you start drilling down but Americans don't drill down. They don't have time for that. Couple that with, as I mentioned, the refusal by a lot of Americans to blame Trump for the economic realities, and you can see why his approval, despite the fact his overall numbers for handling COVID, didn't completely tank.

I mentioned 2012 and I want to expand on that. In 2012, Obama was not getting reelection numbers when it came to the economy. His numbers there were typically lower than his overall approval. It was a very similar situation.

But Obama is Obama and Trump is Trump.

The reality is that Trump's brand of populism, though, is still very effective, specifically in the rustbelt region of this country, and it's why, in the final days of the campaign, Joe Biden was so focused on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even while everyone screamed for him to travel to Texas. Okay, he sent Harris, but it was clear, and is clear now, Texas is not a state the Democrats should invest a significant amount of money in at the presidential level.

But this is a big issue facing the Democratic Party: the electoral map is changing. I actually spoke of this back in August. People kept comparing 2020 to 2008 and the comparisons, while there in the overall popular vote, just didn't work at the electoral level. Why? Because the electoral college is changing and that change has the Democratic Party in limbo.

The fact is, the Democratic Party is losing support in the rustbelt region. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are two states that appear to be shifting significantly away from the Democratic Party. Conversely, though, the Democratic Party is making massive inroads in the New South, as well as the Southwest. In 2008, they flipped Virginia blue and it's a state that has now gotten more Democratic over the last few election cycles. We are to the point where Virginia now mirrors Maryland more than it does the rest of the South. That's important. But it's not enough. It's not enough because the Democratic Party, from 1988 to 2012, could essentially count on the 46-50 or so electoral votes from the rustbelt region. They cannot anymore.

We saw that in 2016.

The hard truth is that these states have been shifting from the party over the last three election cycles.

The good news is that the Democrats still remain very competitive in these states. Even in 2016, Hillary BARELY lost these states. That's because they have major American cities: Philadelphia with Pennsylvania and Detroit with Michigan, as well as reasonably-szied American cities: Milwaukee for Wisconsin and Pittsburgh for Pennsylvania.

But the rural, and exurban areas of these states, are increasingly becoming more and more conservative.

Why? Because of the demagoguery of Donald Trump. This is not George Bush or John McCain or Mitt Romney conservativism. The demonization of specific groups plays well to the depressed, white voter who maybe did vote for Obama in 2012 because, gosh, there was a smidge of populism there. Trump's entire persona is create an us vs them mantra that preys on those racial anxieties. Lost your job? Blame a Mexican. Lost a loved one to COVID? Blame the Chinese. You're poor? Blame the blacks who are on welfare. Don't get me wrong, this has always been the GOP playbook, but it's been subtle enough where Democrats like Bill Clinton and maybe even Joe Biden a decade ago, could still survive as a candidate because it wasn't explicit enough.

Then Trump came along and killed any pretense of being subtle. It rallied these groups. Instead of a whistle, it was, as Biden put in the last debate, a bullhorn. That galvanized these voters.

You're not going to unring that bell.

The irony for Trump's exploits is that it's put other states in play: specifically, this election cycle, Georgia and Arizona. These were two states Mitt Romney won easily in 2012 that Donald Trump struggled winning in 2016 and will likely lose in 2020. It's not just demographics, and population changes, either. It's that his rhetoric turns off voters in these states. It's why Trump is going to lose a bulk of the west too, despite that once being the foundation for the modern conservative movement.

But these are still conservative states. Georgia is still a Republican state. Arizona, too. That means they're likely to be more 50/50 states than what the Democrats used to expect from the rustbelt.

And that's where the Democrats are in trouble. The electoral college has not caught up to that shift just yet. To be sure, Michigan and Pennsylvania are certain to lose electoral votes by 2024. Minnesota, Ohio too. Maybe Wisconsin can maintain, but the South and the West are where the votes are changing to and many of those areas remain very competitive, even if the Democrats are better positioned to win.

This takes us to the next reality: the GOP cannot win without Trumpism. They just can't. Buckle up because that's going to be their only viable pathway to an election win. Why? Because their only chance at the presidency now rests within the rustbelt states. Because of the dynamic shift in electoral college votes TODAY, and the fact Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are likely a lock for the Democrats, even the map Bush won reelection with now is not a pathway to 270 for the Republicans. In 2004, had Colorado, Virginia and New Mexico been locks for the Democrats like they are now, Kerry wins the election with 279 electoral votes - without Florida. Without Ohio.

The Republicans NEED those rustbelt states that every Republican nominee lost between 1992 and 2012.

And why? Because, again, that brand of conservativism isn't as impacting as Trumpism. Bush appealed to a lot of whites. He did not appeal to enough to win Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, though, in either of his elections.

Romney did, as well, but not enough to win any of those states against a black man.

Trump does. And Trumpism will.

So, what does that mean for the Democrats heading into 2024?

For one, despite Biden making the correct choice to focus on the blue wall, to rebuild that blue wall, we cannot expect that blue wall to continue to stand unless the Republicans nominate an anti-Trump, and I see no reason to believe they will. So, the focus needs to shift to the New South & West:

These are the future states of the Democratic Party:

Arizona
Georgia
Nevada
North Carolina

But here's the thing, even if the thing, even giving Nevada as a strong lean for the Democrats, they're still going to need to win the other three to make up for any lost ground in the rustbelt.

Again, though, the good news is that they will remain competitive in the rustbelt. They just can't expect to win 'em like in years past. Also, it does appear Michigan is the most resistant of the three (WI, PA & MI) as it was the one Hillary lost the closest and the one Biden win by the largest (he's probably going to win it by a comfortable three-points). That's GOOD NEWS because, if they can hold two of those three, as they did this year, and add Michigan, they've locked down 270.

It's NOT good news, though, because there's still a lot of work to be done in Arizona and Georgia, and especially North Carolina.

It'll be easier in 2024, though.

But that means the Republicans have to keep with Trumpism because if they go back to what they were before, they lose the support they saw in the rustbelt, or at least enough where a Democrat like Joe Biden can win in those states.

This is the thing, though: 2020 was an election the Democrats could have lost and that's a warning for 2024.

Because the electoral map has not quite caught up to the changing landscape, the Democrats still need the rustbelt. They needed it this year, too - at least just one state (assuming Biden wins Arizona).

To win in the rustbelt, you need a candidate who will drive urban voters out, see support in suburban counties and win just enough of the blue collar counties, like Eerie, to win the state - and when I say win it, I mean to do so barely.

Biden was absolutely the guy to do it. Hats off to him and his campaign because they built that coalition and won just enough in counties that Trump flipped in 2016 to succeed statewide.

Biden was able to see massive urban turnout to offset the exurban/rural surge Trump received - while also doing well in the suburbs and JUST enough in those destressed blue collar counties to carry PA, MI and WI against an incumbent president.

I don't know if any other Democrat who ran in 2020 could have done it. But Biden did and that's the election.

BEYOND all that, I think it's important to point out two additional hard truths that made the Democrats' path back to the White House, and maybe even hurt down ballot races, all the more harder:

The defund the police narrative was a win for Donald Trump. I think Biden likely was able to maneuver well enough to avoid the idea that he wanted to defund the police, but it probably did have an impact with other Democrats, and why some lost, or narrowly won, even though none actually campaigned on the issue.

The riots & looting turned out to be a problem. I am not saying BLM, who largely handled the protesting peacefully. I am talking about the white folks in Portland, who, for weeks on end were in the news for their looting and rioting. I am talking about the brief moments things spiraled out of control, as was the case in Kenosha and Minneapolis, where the optics were not favorable. Trump had no message in 2020, even when it came to his white supporters. This gave him that bullhorn message, though. He was able to latch onto a divisive point and drove it into the ground: Elect Biden and the Democrats and the scary liberals will burn down your cities.

I didn't trust that message was working but I think it did in areas Biden probably was making inroads, just like Obama did in 2008 and even 2012. But that pathway was closed out when Trump entirely made it the foundation for his campaign.

Just take Kenosha.

Biden lost Kenosha County 50.71-47.57 (rounded). In 2016, Hillary lost it 47.2-46.9. Biden, margin wise, actually did worse in Kenosha County than Hillary - and both did substantially worse than Obama in 2012 (who won the county over Romney).

I've got to think the riots there had something to do with it.

But that's what fuels Trump's successes. He needs his bullhorn.

Fortunately, thankfully, Biden was able to build a coalition to overcome that bullhorn.

[andym]

1. It's not just the racism, really it's more nationalism and two can play that game

In 2024. Democrats need to talk about America being the greatest nation, that it will always protect itself first and that even policies such as protecting against global warming are actually because we want to keep America first. It's all a matter of emphasis, and though not all Trumpers can be peeled away, some can. It may be useful to publicize policies that help the US against China etc. It's just the reality if Democrats want to keep the rust belt. The biggest danger is if Trump himself somehow runs again.

[jimfields33]

2. I think they will pick Nikki Haley in 2024

Democratic Party got the VP First Female VP. They will try for the First Female President. I’m not sure how difficult a run she’ll have.

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. excellent work. thanks for this thoughtful analysis. 3 questions...

what do you see the impact - helpful or harmful - of changing demographics?

impact of role of the media, and of amplification of themes (and lies/propaganda) by social media? we are winning popular votes, and some elections, despite no good antidote or left alternative to right wing hate radio and tv

ditto re organized religion, preaching politics from the pulpit.

So, the next bit if speculation would be on ways to impact your assessment by things that can be done to impact things going forward.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I think the change is a mix.

The demographics shifting from the rustbelt and Northeast mean the Democrats are going to start losing electoral votes. Even California is expected to lose another electoral vote (and therefore a congressional seat) when the 2020 Census is finalized. The good news is that that change is shifting to states the Democrats are doing better in: Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Georgia. But many of those states are still very Republican and it's going to take a big effort to win 'em.

I think the media, specifically social media, is hurting the Democrats. The Republicans have created a massive tentacle of a system to spread disinformation and it works. It's insane how many people are fed it and can't be reasoned with. Read this post of mine from yesterday about the latest conspiracy that has popped up: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214499140

People who were alive in 2000, old enough to vote in that election, hell, likely voted for Bush in that election, have now been convinced Gore was declared the winner until the Supreme Court came back and overturned his victory. This is what they're basing their hope on for Trump winning despite Biden being declared the winner. And their evidence that Bush was declared the winner? Fake newspapers. Someone legit faked a newspaper and it's now being used as proof.

That's scary.

As for traditional media? I think they're irrelevant to be honest. No one watches TV media anymore. At least, not enough to make a difference. Well that's not true. FOX News still plays a vital role in spreading disinformation. But even then, I suspect it's not nearly as harmful as social media and Facebook.

I think the thing that can be done going forward is to understand just because we don't buy into the idea that, say, defund the police hurts, that level of rhetoric pushed by Trump can in fact hurt. Biden's mushy middle reaction to a lot of the BLM protests may have angered liberals but I think it reassured suburban America and that's why he won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

[underpants]

4. Good read. I made the point about Portland to my wife yesterday

Portland and as you mention Minneapolis- the riots part.

That was really bad for us. Night after night a bunch of white kids with nothing better to do or it became a “thing to do” was a horrible image. It scares the hell out of us white people and we do some stupid crap when we are scared.

[Windy City Charlie]

6. Very good points

Trumpism is definitely the key for Republicans to win in the future. The question becomes if Trump himself doesn't run in 2024, who becomes the face of Trumpism? I don't see how a Republican who's part of the establishment can win. They're going to need another person who's able to position themselves as an outsider (provided, again, Trump himself doesn't run again).