AZ Update - lead down to 16,985. But trump needs 60% of remaining 81k ballots

[Roland99]

This is my first update of AZ's numbers today so this is a summary of all counts added by AZ today:


AZ
Biden: 1,643,664
trump: 1,626,679
Other: 52192

New Biden: 12,469
New trump: 14,094
New Other: 647

% New Biden: 45.83%
% New trump: 51.80%
% New Other: 2.38%

Diff: 16,985
Remaining (Est.): 81,209


Trump is averaging 53.6%. Well below where he would need to be. This is gonna end up close though

[Iliyah]

1. Keep seeing different numbers . . .

This morning Biden/Harris was up at least 20,000 and that remaining ballots were in favor of them. Oh well, they are still ahead.

[Roland99]

2. a few hours ago it was over 20k. Another batch came in not long after that.

[Amishman]

3. That second batch was a big chunk of what remained from Pinal

And while it by itself was over 60%, not by nearly enough to offset the other counties where he is coming up short

[StarryNite]

6. We're actually doing a little better now.

I'm feeling more confident that we will be a blue state for Biden!

[Demsrule86]

10. Pima hasn't come in yet. Biden votes there.

[greenjar_01]

7. Pinal County (heavily favoring Trump) was at 90%, it's now at 97%

Most of Trump's gain was from there.

Pima County (strongly favoring Biden) is still at 95%.

The other counties might move a few hundred votes of the margin, but it's really a question of what's left in Pinal, Pima, and Maricopa. I'd bet it's about what we're seeing now in aggregate: Trump at 52 or 53. It probably won't be enough.

[Blue_true]

18. There are two red counties outstanding with about 19,000 votes.

The biggest had 15,000, the other had 4,500 as of earlier today. My guess is one or both reported. As of earlier today, Biden had two very blue counties (+20% or more) left, they had 20,000 votes to count. Maricopa (Biden +2%) had 32,000 to count. Joe had a 20,000 vote lead at that time. Don’t worry, Joe has Arizona, just a matter of time until it is official.

[blitzen]

4. AZ Secretary of State website showing only 34k ballots left...

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

[Roland99]

5. seems to match up with the magical 46k that were added yesterday (provisionals?)

[grantcart]

8. Where do u see 34k ballots left?

[blitzen]

11. Difference between their "Ballots Cast" number and the total votes for the 3 candidates...

But maybe there are some not listed as "cast" yet?

[Deuce]

12. Probably subtracting total votes cast (3,354,572) - Presidential candidates total

[Roland99]

9. FYI - AZ Recount rules

Summary of recount laws
The list below shows answers to common questions regarding recounts in Arizona.[1]

Does state law require automatic recounts?
Yes. Margins requiring an automatic recount vary based on the type of election and total turnout. These can be found below.

When must an automatic recount be completed?
No set deadline.

Can a recount be requested?
Recounts may not be requested in this state.

Who pays for a requested recount?
Recounts may not be requested in this state.

Is a refund available for requested recount costs?
Not applicable. State law does not allow requested recounts.

Can a partial recount be requested?
No.

Automatic recount procedures

Automatic recounts are required under the following conditions:

“A. A recount of the vote is required when the canvass of returns in a primary or general election shows that the margin between the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes for a particular office, or between the number of votes cast for and against initiated or referred measures or proposals to amend the Constitution of Arizona, is less than or equal to the lesser of the following:

1. One-tenth of one per cent of the number of votes cast for both such candidates or upon such measures or proposals.
2. Two hundred votes in the case of an office to be filled by state electors and for which the total number of votes cast is more than twenty-five thousand.
3. Fifty votes in the case of an office to be filled by state electors and for which the total number of votes cast is twenty-five thousand or less.
4. Two hundred votes in the case of an initiated or referred measure or proposal to amend the constitution.
5. Fifty votes in the case of a member of the legislature.
6. Ten votes in the case of an office to be filled by the electors of a city or town or a county or subdivision of a city, town or county.
B. Subsection A does not apply to elections for precinct committeemen, school district governing boards, community college district governing boards, fire district boards or fire district chiefs or secretary-treasurers or boards of other special districts. [2]”
—Arizona Revised Statutes
Automatic recounts are paid for by the county or town, depending on the race.[3] There is no set a deadline for the completion of an automatic recount.

Current difference is 0.51
My estimated final difference is 0.26

[Blue_true]

23. So it looks like the one tenth of 1% of the total votes cast rule would

be in effect. There is going to be around 3,350,400 votes cast. One tenth of 1% would be 3350 votes, looks like Joe will stay way above that based upon where the outstanding votes are. So, no recount is likely to happen.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

13. Hasn't Arizona already been called by every possible outlet?

[LeftInTX]

20. Only the AP and Fox

[Rice4VP]

14. Is 81,000 all that's left to count or is there

going to be some other mystery group of uncounted ballots? This is exhausting


ETA: per the math from the SOS, there’s only 34,245 ballots left to count. Where did you get 81,000 from?

[Roland99]

17. not sure where the 34k from AZ SOS site comes from?

I've never seen stats on remaining on their election results page

The estimate I use comes from:
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

And that would include a bump up of 46k that was added yesterday (which I presume to be provisionals?)



EDIT: Ah, I see how the 34k is calculated

[Rice4VP]

19. Someone posted the link to the SOS page

It states that 3,354,572 votes were cast.

So far the count includes 3,320,327 (B 1,642,664; T 1,626,678; Jorgensen 49,984)

[Roland99]

21. yeah...i made note that I finally figured that out. :)

guess we'll find out soon

[LisaL]

22. That doesn't mean that 34,000 ballots are remaining.

It could just mean in 34,000 ballots presidential race was left blank.

[Tribetime]

15. By this time tomorrow hopefully Arizona and Georgia

Are called for Joe..even though there may be recounts

[Blue_true]

24. There likely won't be a recount in Arizona.

There shouldn’t be one in Georgia, but the SOS is a Republican who has stated one will be done. The Arizona SOS is a Democrat.

[Blue_true]

16. It will fluctuate up and down.

The dump maybe was mostly very red Pina County (Trump +16%). Pina County had 15,000 uncounted votes last I looked at a DU post, but very blue Pima County (Biden +20%) had 18,000 left to count.

Don’t worry, Trump is done unless the 32,000 remaining votes in Maricopa County really go against Joe.

[Roland99]

25. Maricopa dump expected at 7pm tonight (assuming AZ time)

Link to tweet

[Roland99]

26. hope that really helps! We've lost nearly 2,000 of the lead since I posted this. Down to 15,020

[triron]

28. Looks like the vast majority come from Pima and Maricopa.

That could be good news for Biden.

[BainsBane]

27. Trump is currently averaging 55.7%

but needs 60.3%. It changes slightly with each update.

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

It's very close.

[marmar]

29. What are they counting with in Arizona, an abacus?

[Roland99]

31. They're matching a provisional ballots with other balance of voter may have cast

This is the time consuming portion of an election that we usually don’t pay attention to because it’s usually been decided before this

[edhopper]

30. After Trump shits all over McCain

and it's still this close.
Fuck Repuke voters.