BTRTN: Post-Election Reflections...and How We Did With Our Predictions

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers provides initial reflections on the two natural questions after any election: (1) how and why the winners won, (2) how the results compared to pre-election expectations, as set traditionally by polls, and more recently by election forecasters who aggregate polls and build prediction models. For the second question, BTRTN offers its “report card" on its own predictions:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/11/btrtn-post-election-reflectionsand-how.html

Excerpts: "Perhaps the most interesting factoid of the entire election is that of the roughly 175 Republican incumbents that ran for re-election in 2020, only three were voted out of office: Corey Gardner of Colorado, Martha McSally of Arizona, and Donald J. Trump...
"The question I have been getting more than any other: how could almost half of America vote for Trump when his fingerprints all over the scene of the crime of the COVID deaths of more than 240,000 Americans? Frankly, I do not think the answer is terribly complicated. Trump has made it clear that he will absolutely make their jobs, their ability to earn an honest wage, his first – even his only – priority. His message, when you scrape away all the histrionics? 'I will not let COVID-19 get in the way of your job – no lockdowns on my watch...'
"How did (BTRTN) do? We got the headline wrong: “Biden Wins and Dems Achieve a Trifecta.” But it was actually a pretty good performance overall. I’d give us an A for the presidential race and the Governors, a B for the Senate, and a D for the House. That averages out to a B, and that feels about right...we got the Biden win right, and correctly predicted 48 out of 50 states. In the Senate, we made the right call in 33 out of 35 races, but the two misses were enough to keep the Democrats from taking control, which we had predicted. We were correct on all 11 Governor races. But the House was a disaster. Sure the Democrats kept control, as we predicted, but instead of gaining 18 seats, as predicted, they lost a net of 5 so far, and will lose a few more when all is said and done."

[Chainfire]

1. Yea, right.....Baaaaa

The polling sheep have lost their way. No amount of Monday morning quarterbacking changes the score of the game.

[sandensea]

2. And to be fair, they couldn't predict hundreds of thousands of 'missing' ballots in post offices

If not millions.

[reggieandlee]

3. The difference between "polling" and "predicting"

Your comment suggests that you may be unaware of the difference between "polling" companies -- which, as you point out, had serious problems in the last election -- and "predictors," who use data and analytical tools to predict the outcomes of elections. Born To Run The Numbers does "predicting," not "polling," and their predictions have been pretty darn accurate for years. Give the article a read and you'll see!