General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsGreat news AZ just had a 5000 vote dump (or I guess you call it a "drop")
and it went 50/50 so Joe still has almost 13,000 lead with 35,000 to go
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
AZ isnt over till it is over and winning it takes the narrative away from traitor to use against the nation.
SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Do they anticipate a recount?
Eliot Rosewater
(31,109 posts)I anticipate anything is possible so I am not going to relax until AZ is in the books.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)that no one but AP and the Fascist Channel are calling it.
(By the way, if any lurking repubs read this, I'll concede that the Fascist Channel is taking steps, baby steps but steps, toward not being fascist. But you need to take charge and call for them to be conservative without being fascist.)
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,318 posts)Silent3
(15,190 posts)In fact, that's how it's normally done. A state is called when there's low to no chance of the outstanding vote changing who wins.
AZ (and GA) are there already. Time to call 'em!
LisaL
(44,973 posts)It's less than 0.5 % difference. Nobody is going to call it until they finish counting.
Biden is ahead by 13000 votes. Im pretty sure states were called for Trump in 16 with that. Mich for instance.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)And what do you think calling it is going to accomplish?
aggiesal
(8,910 posts)If Biden gets both AZ and GA, he will have the exact number of EV's that
Pendejo45 had in 2016.
Then we can use Pendejo45's words against him, when he said he won a landslide.
The sooner the better.
still_one
(92,116 posts)Roland99
(53,342 posts)HA!
sorry...fell into a Wayne's World vibe
triron
(21,994 posts)mucifer
(23,522 posts)LisaL
(44,973 posts)NT
Statistical
(19,264 posts)He needs a 70/30 split now which is very unlikely. Not impossible but like 50 to 1 unlikely.
CincyDem
(6,347 posts)triron
(21,994 posts)oswaldactedalone
(3,490 posts)The most liberal county in AZ. The race will tighten but Joe should pull it out by about 5K votes.
triron
(21,994 posts)marybourg
(12,611 posts)mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)But they've been under 60% Dump damn near every time.
As you probably know these are mail-in ballots that were dropped off at polling places/dropboxes on the day of election itself. So you got the GOPpers that were convinced by Trump not to use mail-in (but still used their mail-in ballots) and to vote ON election day ... but that's offset by the Dems who wanted to use mail-in ballots ... but didn't trust the mail, and lagged until election day.
Every dump has been 40-50% Biden for days. Trump needs like 70% of everything left.
Not gonna happen.
marybourg
(12,611 posts)Dem2
(8,168 posts)According to our favorite scraper site.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)NT
Dem2
(8,168 posts)So, yes. Likely kept Biden from getting more than the 50.2% that he got from that dump.
oswaldactedalone
(3,490 posts)and all their vote is counted.
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)Cha
(297,123 posts)USALiberal
(10,877 posts)ancianita
(36,017 posts)The recounts worry me. Please tell me I'm wrong.
I'm worried about a technical knockout across 4 states' recounts.
Trump's lawyers are demanding recounts in all battlegrounds.
Biden is outside the recount zone in AZ (12,828), PA, (51,969) and MI (146,123)
but recounts will go ahead in GA (14,089) and WI (20,583).
45 needs 53 to get to 270, and will have to win 4:
one more than than these votes in WI (20,583), AZ (12,828), GA (14,089), AND MI (146,123) before certification Dec 14.
If he can't get recounts, is it because the time's too tight?
Is AZ's AG playing with the nation when he says it's "unlikely" that 45 could win AZ?
imo, 45's recounts HAVE to be electronically tampered with for the numbers to rise.
He could claim the Dems "cheated," when it was really his recounts.
Can any configuration of recounts get 45 to 269?
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)If the margin is that small then a recount is actually called for.
Candidates cant get them.
ancianita
(36,017 posts)A lot harder to get a recount in AZ.
http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/111120_az_recount/an-arizona-ballot-recount-rare-nearly-impossible-trigger/
ancianita
(36,017 posts)Eliot Rosewater
(31,109 posts)ancianita
(36,017 posts)I'm getting cheer leading, which I appreciate.
But I'm asking for logic, something that outthinks the 45 fight machinery.
Is the Bob Bauer team in these recount states? I'm not reading anything about that.
Maybe because media aren't allowed around sausage making.
aggiesal
(8,910 posts)Pendejo45 would literally have to win PA, MI, GA, NC, AZ
As you stated, AZ, PA & MI are outside the recounts.
Even if Biden loses GA, WI, MI, NC & AZ, Biden really only needs ONE state (PA) to win it all.
Pendejo45 is in a world of hurt. He would have to run the table.
ancianita
(36,017 posts)Okay. As long as there's no possible way he gets to 269.
triron
(21,994 posts)Eliot Rosewater
(31,109 posts)It is over number wise regardless, but when you have a violent fascist in power he could use a turnaround here to cause much more trouble than we already have.
ancianita
(36,017 posts)Dem2
(8,168 posts)12,845 Biden 45.4% / 54.6% Trump Trump is averaging 55.0% Trump needs 76.3%
Lead is down to 11,635 but Trumps odds of winning just went WAY down as he needs >76% from here on in...
oswaldactedalone
(3,490 posts)Pretty much sews up AZ for Biden. Nearly half of the remaining vote is from Pima and while the website says there are 24,738 votes left to count across the state, it could be considerably less as there are 2727 ballots waiting for signature verification, which at this late date means that those votes won't count. Also, there are 18,000 provisionals left to review and some percentage of them won't be counted. Joe's got AZ.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,109 posts)Hallelujah
ancianita
(36,017 posts)Biden's has been a steady drop.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,109 posts)ancianita
(36,017 posts)greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)Which is more sensible than other states, since no modern-day recount has ever shifted a vote more than a few hundred or very low thousand at most.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)They don't have automatic recounts. Trump could have asked for a recount after votes were certfied.
GA SOS decided to order a recount, which he calls an audit, since GA doesn't have automatic recounts. And not just any recount, a hand recount.
I personally have no doubt this is done to appease Trumpers.
IsItJustMe
(7,012 posts)and another reason I think is that GA has completely changed all of their voting machines out this year for a different system. They may have done a recount regardless, just to fine tune their new system. Killing two birds with one stone, so to speak. I have seen no mention of this, but it makes sense to me anyway.