General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsToo Early to Call?
Not for me Im calling it now: Donald Trump will NOT run again in 2024.
The most obvious reason for not doing so is what Mary Trump pointed out; he wont set himself up for another potential humiliation.
He lost this election and hell be even less of a vote-getter four years from now. His base wasnt enough to re-elect him, and that base has been eroding rather than expanding. And the Republican party powers-that-be are not going to run a candidate they know cant win.
Four years is a long time in politics long enough for investigations into Trumps business dealings, tax returns, financial transactions, et cetera, and the ensuing indictments that flow as a result thereof. Seeing The Donald walking in and out of courtrooms on the nightly news does not exactly inspire confidence in a second run at the White House.
Trump-humpers are the most easily-manipulated voters in the country. They will be easily distracted by the next shiny object the GOP dangles in front of them and dangle they will. Theyll convince the oh-so-easily convincible that they have a new and improved candidate who represents all of Trumps racism, misogyny, xenophobia, and outright disdain for the Constitution and the rule of law but knows how to express those things in more politically correct terms.
The GOP will never take Trump back as a candidate, which leaves him only one option to run as an independent, which will split the Republican vote and thereby ensure another Democratic landslide.
There is no win in the GOP backing Trump in 2024, and there is no win in refusing to do so. Between a rock and a hard place and isnt that exactly where the GOP deserves to be?
malaise
(267,807 posts)He'll croak before then anyway.
duforsure
(11,882 posts)He looks like hell , and he'll be lucky to make it until then.
trusty elf
(7,348 posts)malaise
(267,807 posts)Love you Trusty Elf - long time no see
mercuryblues
(14,491 posts)airmid
(500 posts)malaise
(267,807 posts)given his father's medical history
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)Cha
(295,900 posts)2024.. that $400 Something Million$$$ Debt to China or wherever isn't going to pay itself..
It has SCAM Written All Over It.
That's exactly where they put themselves.
Thank you, Nance
634-5789
(4,175 posts)SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Silent3
(15,018 posts)For federal office, definitely. For state offices, that can vary by state.
Getting on the ballot might be trickier of course. Your party might not accept you because you're in jail, so you might have to settle for running as a third-party candidate or a write-in.
It would sure be interesting to find out (not that I want to find out by actually living it!) how our system would deal with it if a person was successfully elected while serving prison time.
mdbl
(4,972 posts)they have looked the other way for every other criminal act, why not?
lastlib
(22,981 posts)Ran for president in 1988. A real peach of a guy......
obamanut2012
(25,911 posts)It's happened more than once.
Tanuki
(14,893 posts)in the West Virginia Democratic primary.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Judd
...."In 1999 Judd was convicted of two counts of "mailing a threatening communication with intent to extort money or something of value"[5] and sentenced to 210 months (17½ years) in federal prison. The conviction has been falsely connected to litigation involving the University of New Mexico[6] which was a civil rights complaint he initiated.[7] His actual crime involved postcards that stated "Send the money back now, Keith Judd, Last Chance or Dead." and a package containing a semen stained Playboy, a knife inside the magazine, a key chain, and his father's military discharge papers. He also sent letters to jurors after his trial.[8] He has appealed his conviction no fewer than 36 times, but each appeal has been dismissed for various reasons.[9]
....
As a perennial candidate, Judd has thrice run for president in the Democratic Party's primaries. Judd first did this in the 2008 election cycle, and has continued to run in both cycles since. Each of the times he has run, Judd has managed to qualify to be included on the ballots of at least one Democratic Party primary or caucus.
.....
Judd filed to run for president again in the 2012 general election,[16][17] and attained ballot status in the West Virginia Democratic primary.[18][19] On May 8, 2012, Judd won 41% of the primary vote in West Virginia against incumbent Barack Obama, a higher percentage of the vote in one state than any other primary opponent of Obama had hitherto achieved in 2012 (a figure later surpassed by John Wolfe, Jr.'s showing in the Arkansas primary).[20][21] While this showing would normally have entitled Judd to delegates at the 2012 Democratic National Convention, state officials expressed some uncertainty as to whether Judd had completed the required formalities, such as filing a slate of delegates and completing paperwork.[22] Judd, who did not qualify for any other primary ballots, contested the ballot count, alleging that ballot workers suppressed the actual total (which he said showed him in the lead) in an effort to cover up an Obama loss.[23]...(more)
JI7
(89,173 posts)Silent3
(15,018 posts)Just for the grift opportunities, for the rallies, to fuck with other Republicans who'd like to announce their intentions for 2024, etc.
But actually face another possible loss, no.
And besides Mary Trump's predictions, Donald Trump has been in a cognitive decline. At his best he's always been a mental mess, of course, but he's been getting worse with age. Think of the mess he'll be another 2-3 years from now.
pwb
(11,204 posts)He was not accused of them yet so not sure if a Pardon would cover them? They are all squirming and I love it. My bad.
I Love New York.
tritsofme
(17,322 posts)in the 2024 primaries than they were in 2016.
I think Trump is the prohibitive favorite for the 2024 GOP nomination, that party is practically a cult of personality at this point.
C Moon
(12,188 posts)Beakybird
(3,329 posts)Iterate
(3,020 posts)That's not to say he would ever be a nominated candidate, and he's clearly never had an interest in governance.
I'm hearing myself agreeing with you, but with a less structured and typical outcome. I see the outcome more as a malignant cyst, a conman leveraging that layer cake of reality-deniers, a post-enlightenment third party without a party or a candidate. It's untethered, disruptive, and he can serve his own whims.
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,787 posts)GoneOffShore
(17,309 posts)Maybe get Dinesh D'Souza, Diamond and Silk, Michelle Malkin, and Tucker KKKarlson to help. And that Brendon Straka guy.
So many overinflated egos in one place could cause a singularity. A black hole of id.
N_E_1 for Tennis
(9,593 posts)He will never have a good day again.
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)I seriously doubt he has.
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,787 posts)Meowmee
(5,164 posts)disalitervisum
(470 posts)For forty years I have been telling everyone what a psychopathic madman trump is, and nobody has listened. Forget your rational explanations and legal theories of politics. You are fucked.
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)... which is why we just won the election.
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)He was, is now and always will be a horses behind.
With this son of a ......... I rule nothing out.
Beakybird
(3,329 posts)gademocrat7
(10,623 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)... to jail.
sunnybrook
(1,154 posts)It will be pay to play. Those who were loyalists? He couldn't care less about that. He would endorse someone like Kelly Loeffler for millions of dollars. Laundered of course.....
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)airmid
(500 posts)start coming out as soon as he is out of power.
Atticus
(15,124 posts)Jon King
(1,910 posts)He has so many legal and financial issues. His organization will be bankrupt by 2024. I think our insane Florida governor Desantis will be the next one they try to elevate. Think the evil of Trump, just much shorter and with even less charisma.
They are doomed nationally and must be content to cause trouble on the state and congressional level. AZ and GA rapidly changing demographics will keep them blue forever. Then comes NC and TX. The suburbs in all these places are going very fast. I highly doubt any of us ever see another Repub President in our lifetimes.
mdbl
(4,972 posts)DFW
(54,051 posts)Anyone who saw his "appearance" in the Rose Garden last night (hmm, well, it was night my time!) saw a not-quite-there man who moved like he had gout in just about every joint, and a skin pallor that hinted at a few grey whales in his ancestry. He seemed to be running out of yellow dye for his hair, as well, although cutting down on that stuff might be beneficial to his health.
But, just for argument's sake, let's say he accidentally meets up with a physician who gives him some GOOD advice for once, and he's still alive in four years.
What are his options? He starts running now? For what? For president? Does he nominate himself four years in advance, or does the Republican Party still get to exercise its option to hold primaries? And what does he do for four years in the meantime? Rallies are out for now. He just broke with Fox Noise, and no other station wants him on except maybe to edit him into reruns of Sesame Street. I guess he could always try to demand that the city of Scranton, PA furnish Biden's birth certificate.
No one will finance his next big political run. Just ask Newt Gingrich how much Sheldon Adelson gave him after his week of "front-runner" was over and forgotten. He can start a phony campaign with fine print saying he can grab any contributions for personal use. He can try to pay off his debts that way, but it probably won't go far.
After a year or two of realizing his one term in office was what is best expressed in Bridge as "four no trump," even half of his MAGA fanatics (those not yet killed by Covid-19, that is) will realize that, in fact, he didn't MAGA. The "Heads I Win, Tails You Lose" scam doesn't work if the ones you are trying to scam are onto you, and Donny Boy, they are SO onto you by now.
If he chooses the option (smartest for him, but who said he was that smart?) to just fade away, go back to hosting TV shows (if any station will give him one), and try to get debt forgiveness in exchange for silence, he'll piss off his base for maybe three months, until their next phony messiah shows up.
One always does.
CTyankee
(63,769 posts)He won't really have any supporters. In debt, sued right and left, his health ebbing away,probably losing his golf club so no golfing, no book to "write" because nobody really cares....the list goes on and one.
Liberal In Texas
(13,453 posts)so he can rake in money from the contribution gravy train. When that dries up (I'm going to guess 6 to 8 months on that) he'll not announce he's quitting or anything, he'll just divert his grifting to some other enterprise. That will probably be about the same time as the GOP realizes they'll have to find another snake oil salesman.
Deadbeat Donnie will probably try that "alternative to Fox" pay subscription TV that will fall as flat as his wine, steak, or casino business. Fox was successful because it was free and available on every cable TV platform there was. This sub-TV where the suckers have to pay for it every month will never fly.
mtnsnake
(22,236 posts)Truer words were never spoken.