No rest before 2022: How Republicans pulled off a big upset and nearly took back the House

[chia]

How Republicans pulled off a big upset and nearly took back the House

As of this writing, Republicans are leading in 27 of the 27 seats the Cook Political Report deemed toss-up before the election. They are ahead in all 26 of the seats that were deemed either leaning or likely Republican. Republicans are also leading in 7 of the 36 seats that were either leaning or likely to be taken by the Democrats.

That is, Republicans not only pretty much swept the tossups, but they marched into Democratic territory as well.

The Crystal Ball, which bravely has no tossups in its final rating, had Democrats net gaining 10 House seats. It will actually be the Republicans who will likely net gain 10 seats or more.

The end result of which is that Republicans are much closer to a House majority than we believed they would be after 2020 and have put themselves in a strong position heading into the 2022 midterms.

I didn't expect this, although after reading a related thread here about Parscale's Big Data Death Star, it seems a bit more understandable. Maybe I was just so focused on the Presidential race I didn't pay as much attention down-ballot as I should've. 2022 looks a lot more significant now.

[texasfiddler]

1. Who is the best on the Democratic side to work in between elections to engage and register our side?

I would love to send money and help.

[BSdetect]

2. I suspect they will increase gerrymandering scams even more.

[jimfields33]

12. For sure! New Hampshire will probably be the next place they destroy with

Taking away democratic seats or put democratic cities together in one seat. Something crazy like that. They have 27 states to screw with. Ugh!

[Turin_C3PO]

3. I think we'll do good in 2022

as long as we go with the strategy that led to the 2018 blue tsunami. But it'll take work; lots of money, door knocking, phone and text banking and other GOTV efforts.

[kentuck]

4. In my opinion, they will be hard-pressed to duplicate those numbers without DJT on the ballot.

There are no Republicans in the present line-up that can appeal to their voters like Trump.

Just my opinion.

[chia]

6. You make a good point, I appreciate your opinion

[In It to Win It]

9. I agree! I question whether Trump would stump for the GOP since

he won’t be president. Would he care?

[jimfields33]

14. Probably not, but president in party usually does horrible midterms.

Happened every election. Clinton, Bush, Obama and trump. Maybe we can break the cycle.

[Turin_C3PO]

16. How did Reagan do

when he was President? Did the Dems win the midterms? If not, maybe we can duplicate Reagan’s success. I believe I read that Biden overtook Reagan as the largest margin of victory for a challenger vs. an incumbent.

[jimfields33]

18. 1982 - Democratic Party picked up 1 Democratic senate seat and 28 democratic house seats.

[Turin_C3PO]

21. Ok.

So it appears that we’re going to be in for an uphill climb if past history is any indication. I’m still gonna work my ass off to try and keep Dems in power. Maybe we can pull off another 2018 since Trump’s not on the ballot.

[jimfields33]

23. Me too! History definitely does NOT have to repeat itself

[Polybius]

27. 2018 happened BECAUSE of Trump

Many who voted in 2018 came out in force because they hated Trump, and hated how their Representative was supporting him. We lose that in 2022.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

28. Bush gained his first midterm. Killed it, actually. But that was due to Sept. 11. I can't

imagine right wingers will "rally around the flag" if President Biden were to lead during a national tragedy.

[Thekaspervote]

22. Agree.. just like we would have been hard pressed to repeat our record win in 18 this year

[kentuck]

32. Also, Trump was not on the ballot in 2018.

There's a lesson there somewhere.

[Polybius]

26. Trump will leave Biden a huge mess though

The stupid voters with short-term memories will blame Biden for it, I fear.

[chia]

11. Your last two lines - that's poetry

And I don't disagree with you, (particularly about "the majesty of a cup of coffee in the morning), I just don't think the weight of the last four years is going to be shaken off anytime soon, if at all.

[chia]

15. Thanks, you do the same. Enjoy that coffee, I just finished mine on a crisp, sunny CA morning

And thanks for your timely wisdom, I'll be thinking on it today.

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

7. We were successful with the slogan...

..."Blue Wave" in 2018. I asked on here and other DEM circles why we weren't using the same language to engage the voters in 2020 - crickets.

I think we suffered from overconfidence. We'll have to stoke the flames with messages like "Blue Wave" again in order to maintain the House. Americans like slogans. We need to use "Blue Wave" again or get another one.

[triron]

19. Right on!

[uponit7771]

8. M$M still giving America's horrible polling a pass, no... We need answers not anecdotes

[triron]

10. Blame part of it on DeJoy, add more due to Barr's lies.

[jimfields33]

20. True! Thankfully he will he gone (both)

But mail in ballots will revert back to absentee ballots with some states having strict guidelines again. The virus allowed a huge increase in mail ins that probably won’t be allowed in most states again.

[Blue_true]

24. Republicans knocked on doors. Our side did mostly phone banking and social media.

They had a presence in people’s faces, we did not.

We talk about following science, but failed to do it at a critical juncture during the election. The science has been clear for months, properly masking up, observing social distancing where possible and following good hygiene practices allows people to do certain activities. Republicans were out in mask with shoes on the ground, we didn’t do that and it likely cost us some offices.

As the American public is fatigued from COVID19 avoidance procedures, we simply are NOT going to do a national lockdown, anyone believing that we can without massive social unrest is living in a fantasy. We have to use proven tactics that generate less resistance and build a successful strategy from there.

[LeftInTX]

30. Agree

[Raven]

25. No rest, never. There are 70 million of them and many

are bringing up children to follow in their footsteps. Resting is how we got into this mess in the first place.

[JCMach1]

29. USPS, ES&S hackable voting machines...

Any questions?

What astounds me is that the MSM bought into the narrative that Trump got more votes than in 2016.

Really???

[LeftInTX]

31. This was not good. She lost more than last time.

She did not campaign as much as she did in 2018. I don't know if it was because the seat was open and considered an easy win or if because Tony Gonzales was so bad that everyone thought he would lose. This is a swing seat.