General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe other thing that an under count of republicans in polls does to
a campaign like Biden's is to stop them, if they thought they were way ahead in certain states, from more aggressive messaging. If they knew what four % points of Trump supporters were thinking, the ones who were 'shy', their campaign would have ended much differently. If you have the wrong data how can you land your campaign perfectly on election day? The word came in the last week of the campaign that there were 'shy' republicans. No doubt the info came from republican numbers. Democrats better figure it out.
DeminPennswoods
(15,271 posts)correct. Here in PA Biden was around 50% and that's about where he'll end up. Even though they were a smaller number than in 2016, it will turn out the undecided voters were really voters who were on the fence about Trump then mostly decided to vote for him again when push came to shove in the voting booth.
applegrove
(118,577 posts)want the Democrats flying into any election on faulty instruments.
uponit7771
(90,323 posts)... were called "not that bad" in the aggregate but that's now how democracy works, individual races are ran for offices accross the country not as one group.
The GA race doesn't even have polling that anyone has confidence in we'll have just run like were 25% behind
No other country puts up with polling being this bad for this long tilted towards one party, period.
DeminPennswoods
(15,271 posts)towards the end of last week. The guest said the private polling was always showing a close race. Just as O'Donnell asked what the private polls did differently than the public polls, the audio-video feed went out. I guess we'll never know...
Rice4VP
(1,235 posts)Its the cocky Trump campaign that let crowd sizes make them over confident.
I admit that their packed rallies in Pennsylvania and Michigan really worried me. But then the rally goers would tell the media that they already voted so I stopped worrying about it. Plus, having daily updates of the early in person voting and absentee totals helped. Some states even had it broken down by party. Thats when I knew that Biden would win Pennsylvania and Arizona. Im still surprised that he lost North Carolina
Cicada
(4,533 posts)I would like to know how the Biden campaign knew that the public polls overstated Bidens lead. The final vote tally will have Joe winning the popular vote by about 4%. I would like to know how close to that the Biden campaign came in its expectations.
applegrove
(118,577 posts)remember how they knew. If they did heed the warning, i am glad.
moonscape
(4,673 posts)this with David Plouff on his podcast. She said they knew from internal polling. It was a good listen about their strategy.
applegrove
(118,577 posts)to attention to false polls.
uponit7771
(90,323 posts)... didn't Harrison's internals give him any idea what was happening?
I'm not letting this go, the polling in this country is horrid and no other country would put up with this horrible polling for this long tilted towards one political party.
applegrove
(118,577 posts)everything up for Democrats by getting some of theor base to not answer MSM pollsters. We don't know yet.
LeftInTX
(25,201 posts)I got email after email from him...Several times a day... I'm in Texas.
Then I read on DU that he had TV ads airing all over the country...??
Impressive, but it doesn't win votes....
People from all over the country were donating to him...
Also the same for Amy McGrath (Although Amy wasn't running ads all over the country..LOL...), but she got alot of attention and donations because of McConnell.
Tribetime
(4,684 posts)The election if their polling was correct?
wishstar
(5,268 posts)when NC ended up much closer giving Trump only 50% of votes while Florida went over 51% for Trump.
Our Dem candidate for Congress in my district that includes blue Asheville got little to no support from national Dems and ended up losing to the Repub conspiracy embracing unqualified uneducated rightwing nut who is now telling public that Covid restrictions are unnecessary because a vaccine is on the way and that investigations are needed into US Intelligence and Fed Reserve (deep state conspiracy territory)
Tribetime
(4,684 posts)In Ohio Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Also Florida was around 4% for Joe.
moonscape
(4,673 posts)it was redistricted. Losing there surprised me.
uponit7771
(90,323 posts)... many races?
BumRushDaShow
(128,700 posts)so that is what they start with as a "base" data set.
However what that means and how those voters actually vote, involves a whole lot of trends, speculation, and assumptions about how they will vote.
In 2016, 2018, and now the 2020 elections here in PA, you will see the crossover-voting in full force. I.e., in 2016, PA flipped to 45 and Toomey won re-election, however the top 3 state-level positions all went to Democrats. In 2018, the Democrat - Tom Wolf - handily beat the 45-endorsed idiot Scott Wagner for Governor. But in 2020, PA flipped back to blue with Biden, however of the top 3 state-level positions, only the AG was retained for Democrats (and by a good margin), where the other 2 positions (State Treasurer and State Auditor General) went GOP.
So in one respect - and this is something that some politicos often bemoan rarely happens - there wasn't a "straight party vote" going on (this is not even taking into account that the option for a 1-button straight party vote was eliminated, because many weren't using it anyway, although others did as a way to quickly get a vote out of the way), which suggests that people carefully selected who they were going to vote for, for whatever reason.
I also want to note that a lot of it is personality-driven, as in 2012 & 2016, the Libertarian candidate - Gary Johnson - seemed to have had significant support here in PA, where in 2016, he managed to grab at least 150K votes. However in 2020, he was not on the ticket, which instead had Jo Jorgensen, who only got 1/2 the votes that Johnson got.
DeminPennswoods
(15,271 posts)for a long time.
I think maybe we just need give credit where credit is due, Trump's strategy to goose turnout from his base was pretty successful. I didn't think there were that many more votes to be had from it, but that wasn't true. My own anecdotal experience is that of the 3 Trumpers in line behind and ahead of me, 2 were what pollsters would deem "unlikely" voters.
BumRushDaShow
(128,700 posts)and what the state's population is, factoring in the age demographic who were eligible, you would see that there were whole segments of the voting-age population not participating (or perhaps only doing so every 4 years or maybe every 2 years if there is a mayoral or gubernatorial election).
Through my lifetime living in this state, I always got the sense (and that includes experiences from some limited travel around the state) that most people seemed to be more of the "we mind our own business" types. They weren't overtly in-your-face "political" but believed what they believed. It wasn't something all-consuming or in the forefront.
But it seems that after 2010, a shift happened for the worse, or at least some "element" here got amplified, it infected a number of other people including newly elected officials, and that seems to have slowly taken a relatively "low-keyed" state, and lit it up.
There have always been what I called the "annoying Republicans" but this crew has literally devolved into foaming-at-the-mouth ingrates.
DeminPennswoods
(15,271 posts)were just regular. They obviously were paying some attention and one was wearing a Trump t-shirt, but wanted to avoid arguing. They were more concerned about living their lives than anything else. It wouldn't surprise me at all to learn they liked Trump because of "The Apprentice" or maybe they liked "the show" of his rallies and no other particular reasons. They all seemed like what I'd call "low information" voters.
BumRushDaShow
(128,700 posts)They like the "bravado" and the ability to "tell it like it is". He is the "bully" they admired back in high school because he got what he wanted when he wanted and rarely got disciplined for it. They didn't care what he would be fighting about, just that he fought.
DeminPennswoods
(15,271 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,700 posts)DeminPennswoods
(15,271 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,700 posts)The canvassers are on the far right... the far left of the camera is showing the scanning machines, so when they're done removing ballots from envelopes and flattening, they'll hand them off to scanner operators who will run them through! It's hard to see but there are people going all the way back on that far right shot. Most of the observers are seated over on that side (off camera).
bullimiami
(13,082 posts)1 2 3 3 apples. Yup 3 apples.
1 2 3 3 apples. Yup 3 apples.
1 2 3 3 apples. Yup 3 apples.
1 2 3 3 apples. Yup 3 apples.
1 2 3 3 apples. Yup 3 apples.
1 2 3 3 apples. ?? What only 2 apples? Ok maybe I miscounted.
1 2 3 3 apples. ?? 2 apples again? I was sure I counted 3.
1 2 3 3 apples. Wtf? 1 apple. Someone is stealing my fucking apples.
Moral of the story is... Pollsters didnt suddenly become inept. Someone is stealing our fucking apples.
uponit7771
(90,323 posts)... because factoring that in would mean republicans are cheating a lot.
You know, I wonder if polling is more accurate the bluer the state?
hmmmm, that COULD point to VSM being the variant
doc03
(35,320 posts)areas such as the one I live in it takes 10 minutes it has discourage voting. The county in Ohio where I live has a population of about
67000 and one location for early voting. Franklin County Ohio has a population over 1.3 million and I hear there is just one location for early voting. That definitely has a big impact on voting. If you work 8 hours a day how do you find time to stand in line for hours to vote? Then we have this asshole president telling us voting by mail is rigged.
uponit7771
(90,323 posts)doc03
(35,320 posts)are discouraged or prevented from voting that 8% advantage in the polls is meaningless. I remember Trump gutting
Voting Rights, was that another executive order that Biden could reverse or was that a SCOTUS ruling?
uponit7771
(90,323 posts)UCmeNdc
(9,600 posts)Start early for correcting the voter suppression activities by the GOP
YEP!
FDT!
UCmeNdc
(9,600 posts)Plus more democratic voters to vote by mail in every state.
jimfields33
(15,751 posts)Then begin to figure out a way in split legislators. I have no idea how to do it in the 27 states that have full red majority legislators. That would be difficult.
Johnny2X2X
(19,001 posts)That's the only explanation. He cheated in several states and still didn't win, that's why he's so upset.
The biggest point to me is looking at Minnesota and Wisconsin. The same polling agencies got Minnesota right on the button, but were 7 points or more off in Wisconsin. Those 2 states are so similar. How could they be right on the money on one and dramatically off on the other? I would think a deep dive into those two state's numbers will show some froggy data that just doesn't seem possible statistically.
Captain Zero
(6,799 posts)I bet there are anomalies.