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Wed Nov 18, 2020, 09:59 AM

For whatever it is worth-InsiderAdv poll-Warnock +1, Ossoff Tied

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/georgia/

16 replies, 1634 views

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Reply For whatever it is worth-InsiderAdv poll-Warnock +1, Ossoff Tied (Original post)
kansasobama Nov 2020 OP
philf99 Nov 2020 #1
TomCADem Nov 2020 #13
BainsBane Nov 2020 #2
redstatebluegirl Nov 2020 #3
Drunken Irishman Nov 2020 #6
obamanut2012 Nov 2020 #4
Drunken Irishman Nov 2020 #5
Sucha NastyWoman Nov 2020 #7
lagomorph777 Nov 2020 #8
getagrip_already Nov 2020 #9
dawg Nov 2020 #10
wysimdnwyg Nov 2020 #11
Indyfan53 Nov 2020 #12
JI7 Nov 2020 #14
budkin Nov 2020 #15
radius777 Nov 2020 #16

Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 10:29 AM

1. I am done with polling.

Letís make sure we get out our voters and watch the returns on election night

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Response to philf99 (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 19, 2020, 03:17 AM

13. You Have to Give GOP +2 For Voter Suppression

Polling can only measure the expressed intention of people to vote. But, if you stall the mail in Atlanta, cut down on polling locations in urban areas, enforce voter ID strictly against minorities and make people in urban areas wait for hours, Republicans can gain a few points notwithstanding the polls. This is why Republicans suppress the vote: because it is effective in a close race. Sure, it is not going to stop a landslide, but in a close race, it has an impact.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 10:30 AM

2. What it's worth

is absolutely nothing.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 10:38 AM

3. I will never believe another thing I see on 538.

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Response to redstatebluegirl (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 10:43 AM

6. Why?

 

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 10:42 AM

4. I literally will never look at another poll again

At least until it somehow becomes more scientific.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 10:43 AM

5. Same poll had Trump winning Georgia by 5.

 

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 11:28 AM

7. Everything they do to prepare for and count those votes

Needs to be televised on local TV, so that once the counting is done no one can claim that there was any cheating.

Even if it turns out badly for us, Iíd like to know that the count is correct.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 11:28 AM

8. Sadly, worth nothing. Polls are broken.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 11:31 AM

9. Polls are currency for the media.....

Not much more value than that. Been like that forever.

They are statistical junk.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 11:50 AM

10. I'm still interested in the polls, but I take them with a huge grain of salt.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 12:31 PM

11. I know we all have a huge amount of mistrust in polls now, but...

it will be interesting to see if they come back to normal when Trump is not on the ballot. If you exclude elections when Trump was running (not just his race, but when he's on the ballot), polls have been pretty accurate overall. That said, do I trust these? No, not really. And this is definitely a time when turnout is 90% of the results, regardless of the polls. We know the public is somewhere in the 45-55% range. It's going to be about who can get their side to show up.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Nov 18, 2020, 06:46 PM

12. Polls a bullshit.

They have been wrong over the last four years. This past election was much closer than predicted.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Thu Nov 19, 2020, 03:19 AM

14. fuck the polls

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Thu Nov 19, 2020, 03:26 AM

15. Polling needs work

I wonít be following it much going forward.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Thu Nov 19, 2020, 04:00 AM

16. IMO, the GOP starts with a slight edge in these races.

-the state is historically a red, voter-suppressed state.
-Repubs tend to do better in runoffs and downballot races.
-Biden won the state but some of his voters were Repubs who voted for Purdue and Loeffler.
-Purdue outperformed Trump and beat Ossoff by 87k votes. The libertarian had 115k votes and such voters tend to lean red.

We must turn out more vote in the deep blue metro areas and surrounding burbs. Stacey Abrams was on talking about this. IMO a black candidate (Warnock) on the ticket helps us with black turnout. Ossoff helps us with the white moderates. We just need to do good GOTV and run a strong campaign. The state voted for Biden and we must make it clear it is Mitch who will stand in the way of everything (including the stimulus money) that voters want done.

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