General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMax Rose: "I would have gone on that (BLM) march again, knowing I would lose"
(on a private "thank you" call with him)
JI7
(89,241 posts)OnDoutside
(19,948 posts)Coming midterms will be good to Dems.
Demsrule86
(68,486 posts)We need to start now to have even the slimmest of chances. Historically, house seats are lost during the first mid-term of the party that holds the presidency.
OnDoutside
(19,948 posts)circumstances. However, I believe there are a number of factors that could benefit Democrats over the next 24 months,
(My BIG proviso is that Democrats get their messaging right, no point just doing - let people know WHAT you are doing and how it benefits them)
- Though Trump will try to claim otherwise, we will hopefully all be able to move on from Covid, under the Biden Administration, giving a positive glow to Dems. Let's remember that a lot of rural republican voters in Red states were scared shitless to the point where they were willing to believe Trump that "It will soon be over", and voted for him on the expectation that he would deliver. The next 60 days is going to be pretty horrific in the US, but particularly in Red States. I wish there was a SuperPac targeting gettable Red districts with the message that "Trump is leaving you to die".
- No more k-razy tweets from the President of the United States will count for something, as will having a competent administration.
- Losing some seats in the House this time, will make sure Democrats will not take the foot off the pedal, and in fact make them re-double their efforts. With the chance of taking the Senate back in 2022, they will be keenly aware not to lose the House.
- 2020 was a double edge sword for House Democrats, especially in R+ areas, and that was turnout was so high to either support Trump or oppose him. It is clear that a lot of Republicans came out to vote Trump out, but couldn't bring themselves to vote Democratic. So the task for 2022 is to get Democratic voter turnout up to at least 2018 levels, but depress turnout for those who voted for Biden but not Dem down ballot. These are all things that Democratic strategists know now, but the question is whether they will get their arse in gear and carry it out.
- There's every possibility that your average Republican candidate in 2022, won't have separated themselves from Trump, and in fact we may see an even greater level of Q in Republican Primary candidates, so they won't look "republican normal".
- If by some miracle, Dems get those two Georgia seats, straightaway, kill the fillibuster, push through HR1 (set the scene for the 2022 election), a massive COVID relief package, and a massive infrastructure package, followed shortly after by the Bipartisan bill to fix the ACA.
- If McConnell holds on to power, I really can't see him compromising on anything, because it's not in his nature. In that scenario, expose everything that went on over the last 4 years, and use that relentlessly in the build up to 2022. Go after Perdue, Burr and Loeffler for insider trading (there are others).
- Republicans were able to hide everything, because they controlled the WH/DOJ/SEC/ etc, but that is gone now, so the best disinfectant is sunlight. Declassify all the stuff they were hiding.
- The economy should start to improve significantly by Q4 2021-Q2 2022, perfect time to hit that economic message home.
I wouldn't despair about the House, as long as Democrats are aggressive in hitting back on Republicans.
Polybius
(15,337 posts)The Party that controls the Presidency almost always loses seats. It's likely to be a bloodbath for us.
OnDoutside
(19,948 posts)Demsrule86
(68,486 posts)if you remained in office? I am so sorry to lose you...sigh.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)brooklynite
(94,377 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)That is what I was saying.
Polybius
(15,337 posts)With the way SI is, someone should have told him he would lose 5% off the bat. We needed that seat, and his votes were fairly good.
radius777
(3,635 posts)There's ways for a Dem to run in a red district without having to use FoxNews style talking points, which only turn off the Dem voters. If he had stood for BLM before the election - and made it clear he is a Democrat though more moderate - he likely would have won as NYers value authenticity and justice. Obama won the district, so it's not like it's so deep red a Dem can't win there.
This is the Max Rose who would have won:
If we are going to unite this country then we must listen when a community is hurting, Rose continued. Black parents worry a chance encounter could end with their baby boy or girl never coming home. And yes, the wife or husband of a police officer feels their heart leave their chest every time a tour starts, scared the love of their life may never walk back through the door. Young Staten Islanders marched to express their pain. And for that they were called rioters and thugs on national television. They were demonized for their faith in America's capacity for change their belief that peaceful protest is how you do it, and their hope that their hometown could be a part of that movement. The weeks following the murder of George Floyd, our nation was united in the belief that we must change. Our politics tore at that common purpose.
It may be hard to beat Nicole M in the near future. She's tightly tied to the NY GOP and is a female version of Trump, ie will go to any depths to retain power.
JI7
(89,241 posts)He lost white support which he never got back after he made the comments about black/brown men being unfairly stopped by cops during the Professor Gates thing.
radius777
(3,635 posts)In particular when it came to the Jeremiah Wright issue which some thought could sink his campaign. But instead Obama confronted it head on, speaking eloquently about what it meant to be black in America and what Wright said was more complex and came from a place of pain rather than hate. It worked, and proved that voters can be reasoned with, if the attempt is made. Rose's concession speech was the type of speech he needed to make during the campaign, not after. I do agree that the Gates issue and other policing issues along with the racist Tea Party and Birtherism is what hurt Obama with white voters. It was just too much for even Obama to overcome at that point.
JI7
(89,241 posts)It was only AFTER he was re-elected in 2012 where he really started to talk about the truth of racism as being about WHITE RACISTS.
Before the focus was more on what black people needed to do and not offending white people.
malaise
(268,724 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)liskddksil
(2,753 posts)he could to undermine our message. Did not help him in the least.
brooklynite
(94,377 posts)liskddksil
(2,753 posts)for one.