How will the GA Runoffs play out......

[Takket]

There are a number of factors here. First let's look at the raw numbers from the election:

Perdue
49.7%
2,462,617
Ossoff
47.9%
2,374,519
Hazel
2.3%
115,039

Raphael Warnock
Democratic Party
32.9%
1,617,035
Kelly Loeffler
Republican Party
25.9%
1,273,214

Others:
41.2%
2,024,112

The two major factors here are:
1. Getting as many people who already voted for you to show up and vote again (i.e. not losing as much support because turnout will be lower).
2. Getting as many of persons as possible who DIDN'T vote for you in the general (because they either voted for your opponent or went third party or voted for a different Dem/GOP in the special election (this applies to Warnock/Loeffler only)

Ossoff has ground to make up meaning he needs to get as many Hazel voters are possible, and get better turnout than Perdue. As reason why I would love to see Democrats "signal boosting" the call for MAGAts to protest the election. We want this idea to take hold.

As for Warnock, he lead on election day but if you look at that 41.2% of "others":

1,152,906 voted GOP (add Loeffler's total 2,426,120 voted GOP)
761,227 voted Dem (add Warnock's total and 2,378,262 voted Dem)
109,979 voted third party.

So again... we have some ground to make up assuming everyone who votes in the runoff will be loyal to their party. Dividing up the 3rd party vote will be crucial... and turnout will win the election...... (what else is new?)

I fear the third party vote quite a bit because with Dems holding the white house and house, I could easily see most of them voting GOP to hold the senate for the rethugs out of fear of one party having total control........ especially knowing with drumpf out of the picture there is no need to vote against him to check his power.......

[calguy]

1. We are definitely the underdogs in both of these races.

[doc03]

6. Shouldn't be if the voters come out. If we don't

get control of the Senate Biden will get nothing done.

[Laelth]

2. It SHOULD be a "both or neither" situation.

It’s hard to imagine that many people will split their votes between the two parties.

The momentum, however, appears to be on our side, and that’s good.



-Laelth

[ChoppinBroccoli]

3. What Do We Know About Hazel?

I know nothing about this Hazel character. Would it be natural for Hazel voters to switch to Ossoff, or are they more likely to switch over to Perdue? Because Ossoff is going to need basically ALL of Hazel's voters to break for him.

The Warnock race is really hard to get a read on right now because there is so much third party vote out there. I'm encouraged that he got more votes than Loeffler, but then again, he only get one-third of the votes cast.

My heart wants to believe we can pull both of these off, but my gut is saying we won't get either one.

[delisen]

4. Doug Collins / Trump prefer Loeffler lose runoff

Collins and Trump secretly want a Loeffler loss because this seat is only for two years and winner must run again in 2022.

If Loeffler wins runoff she will have incumbent advantage in 2022 plus her own limitless funds.
Collins figures he can win against Warnocke in 2022 but not Loeffler.
This is why the Republican messaging seem strange and contradictory in this race.

[kansasobama]

5. I will never get it why Democrats will be a cause of lower voter turnout

But, yes, they will. Our people only show up for Presidential election. They do not for other elections. That is why we are losing state legislatures and other races. Democrats have done a poor job about convincing voters to "vote" in "non-Presidential" elections. However, blame also goes to our own. They don't need convincing. Looks at what has happened in legislatures and Supreme Court.

I would be very disappointed of we lose GA senate. What more motivation do Dems need?