Prediction: Republican Ticket will be Romney / Rubio.

[ddeclue]

[oh08dem]

1. I'm thinking Pawlenty, or Christie

early supporters, both Governors of blue states.

[ddeclue]

3. Florida is the biggest blue state of all and the one that is most in play.

we have 29 electoral votes and we went blue in 2008, red in 2004 and 2000 and the state is very evenly split - not true if you pick Pawlenty or Christie.

PLUS: Rubio is a play for the Hispanic and younger votes as well.

[JI7]

4. Florida is a purple state , a vp from a blue state isn't going ot give him the state

but something like Florida where it's often close can help by adding a vp from there.

[ddeclue]

6. exactly n/t

[DJ13]

8. I agree, but Im doubtful on Christie

He seems to be cautious enough not to put himself on a sure fire losing ticket and risk his reputation for future opportunities.

That could change, but it would require something out of left field that could endanger Obama's reelection chances in November.

[MADem]

31. Not to overuse the "elephant in the room" theme, the guy is way too overweight to run for VP

He'd be a target for relentless jokes about his size--the world is not as restrained about these matters as the civil members of DU. Also, coming in as a candidate as Michelle Obama's Let's Move initiative is finally gaining traction, what will they say about Christie? Let's Eat? The stuff just writes itself.

I could see Christie getting a cabinet post in exchange for doing some stumping in friendly locales--not Health and Human Services, though.

He's also too much of a loudmouth. That may play well in Jersey; it doesn't go over in other parts of the country. His abrasive manner is off-putting.

You never know, though--these guys could surprise us.

[RZM]

2. Rubio will be on the short list

But the short list will also include some protestant tea party people. I don't know enough about them to speculate who that is. The only major tea-partier I can think of DeMint.

[ddeclue]

5. Yeah but they are going to win SC anyways and it is a small state compared to Florida.

I think whoever he picks comes from Florida or Ohio and is likely a Hispanic or a woman.

[RZM]

9. Problem for them, picking an Hispanic or woman won't do shit

Rubio's the exception here. The Miami Cuban vote matters and Florida's a big state, so if he could sway it for Romney, that would be something. But otherwise, the Republicans are dreaming if they think they can get an 'in' on the Hispanic vote. We learned that last time around with Bush and Rove's quixotic adventures on that front.

[ddeclue]

11. it is hard to say.. George W. Bush actually did quite well with the Hispanic vote in 2000 and 2004

it was the Republicans in Congress who screwed it up for him afterwards and to be fair W wasn't nearly as wacko anti-immigrant as his own party.

It has been my observation working campaigns here in Florida at least that Hispanics will readily cross party lines to vote for a Hispanic if there is a choice between a Hispanic and a non-Hispanic. I don't know if that carries across the whole country. I would also note that here in Florida Cubans are Republicans and the Puerto Ricans are Democrats and there really don't like each other but I don't know what happens with other nationalities inside the Hispanic demographic. Generally the split here in Florida is that Hispanics are 2-1 Democrats to Republicans.

[RZM]

12. Problem was

The Bush team immediately latched on to this 44 percent exit poll figure, which was subsequently debunked.

Bush did do better than some Republicans have, but not nearly good enough. If I'm not mistaken, the real figure was less than 40 percent.

Anyway, I don't doubt that you're right about Florida. But I also am not convinced that many of the nation's Hispanics have a particular connection to Miami Cubans like Rubio. I think Rubio might be able to have an impact on Florida, which is a crucial state. But in the rest ofthe country, I don't think he could move the needle a whole lot with the Hispanic vote.

Of course, in a close election (which I think 2012 might be), a little bit can mean all the difference. For instance, Rubio campaigning hard in Spanish in swing states could give the Romney campaign that .5 percent shift that gives them that state's electoral votes, provided Romney himself can keep it that close to begin with. I'd say Rubio has a real shot to become the veep nominee. I think it depends on how confident the Romney campaign is that the evangelical tea party base will come out for him. If they are confident of that, Rubio might be the pick. If not, they will have to cater to that set.

A Rubio pick might actually end up being a signal of strength from Romney. It would mean: 'We've got our base in order, so we're branching out.'

[ddeclue]

14. The difference between winning and losing Florida is 58 electoral votes or more than 20% of the win.

If Romney/Rubio vs. Obama/Biden then:

Don't have the updated electoral votes by state but I predict that the red States are:

Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Iowa
North Dakota
South Dakota
Montana
Utah
Wyoming
Arizona
Alaska
Georgia
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Arkansas
Kentucky
Tennessee
Missouri
Indiana
South Carolina
North Carolina
Virginia
Florida
Idaho
Maine
Massachusetts
Nebraska

Blue States are:

California
New York
New Jersey
Connecticutt
Vermont
New Hampshire
Illinois
Hawaii
Maryland
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Oregon
Washington
Ohio
Wisconsin
Minnesota
New Mexico
Nevada
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Colorado

[RZM]

15. Why is Mass. in the Red column?

Other than that, I agree, except I'm a bit worried about Ohio and Colorado. Especially Colorado. I wouldn't be surprised if that flipped. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't either. Both are major prizes that are up for grabs. Looks like I'll be seeing quite a few ads this season

[ddeclue]

16. Romney is from Massachusetts and in 2010 they managed to elect a Republican to the US Senate to take

Ted Kennedy's seat. I don't think MA is as solidly blue as it used to be. I think OH and WI are going to be in our column simply because the GOP has repeatedly hit on the union wasp nest and stirred up a heap of trouble for themselves there. Both of those states are energized to show the GOP the door. Here in FL, Rick Scott is positively hated but I don't think that translates to the Presidential race here like it would in OH or WI. I just have a gut feel that CO goes Democratic.

[SaintPete]

18. Massachusetts will not go Red in a Presidential race

i can't even explain why. Trying to do so creates cognitive dissonance, and it hurts.

[ddeclue]

24. we will see. I hope not but it is hard for me to imagine him being able to get elected Governor but

losing to Obama in his own state.

Obama's only direct connection to the state is I suppose attending Harvard.

[RZM]

19. Problem there is

Mass. is more democratic than Ohio, even given Kasich's antics. I say this as a lifelong Ohioan. It's a swing state, but it has very deep Republican roots, going back to when the Republican party was different from today. New England flipped from strongly Republican to Democratic in the 20th century, but Ohio never really did. If Mass. goes Republican, Ohio will too. Sort of like 2008. If NC and Virginia are Dem, the Republicans simply aren't in the game, because if you steal those types of states, you're going to get the swings too.

BTW, people don't always win their home states either, especially when the candidate and state are opposite colors. Gore didn't win Tennessee in 2000. I don't think Romney can get Mass. in 2012.

[ddeclue]

21. I don't know.. I get the sense that Ohioans are very angry with the GOP. I don't get that from MA.

Kasich and Walker have really crossed the line, even compared to Scott here in Florida. I'm surprised there haven't been actual riots in these states.

I think Democrats have been taking Massachusetts for granted for too long and they are taking it out on us by electing Republicans to Senate and Governor. I think with Romney having been a Governor there, it is not a stretch to imagine him carrying the state.

I think NC and VA going for Obama was just a case of voting against Bush destroying the economy in 2008. I don't expect that to happen again.

[MADem]

32. I am from MA, and we hate that carpetbagger.

He lied like a rug to get the governor job, and we have a weak governor system, anyway. We could put Hitler in the job (forgive me for a Godwin's law reference) and still be able to get work done.

He didn't run for reelection because he sucked in the job and he knew it.

That Republican that took Ted's seat is up against Elizabeth Warren this time--and she's kicking his ass in the polls.

[ddeclue]

17. battle ground states remain Florida and Ohio as always.

[Politicalboi]

7. His Parents weren't

American citizens when he was born. So if they are crying about Obama's father, how will this be okay? Perhaps IOKIYAR.

From Wikipedia

His parents were Cubans who had emigrated to the United States in 1956 and were later naturalized as U.S. citizens in 1975. Rubio was born in 1971.

[ddeclue]

10. yeah but Rubio was born in Florida so he is a citizen. Don't know IOKIYAR...

[SaintPete]

20. if Romney and Rubio are on the same ticket

it will be a first, since neither of their father's were born in the USA.

[ddeclue]

22. George Romney isn't native born? I thought he was...

interesting...

[blue_onyx]

47. Nope

He was born in Mexico

[Canuckistanian]

23. Was Marco an "anchor baby"?

Sure looks like it from the dates.

[ddeclue]

26. if you want to use that derogatory term, it doesn't really apply to Cubans however because of their

refugee status in this country. All you have to do is make it to shore and they will NOT return you to Cuba.

[Canuckistanian]

46. My apologies

I know it's a derogatory phrase, but I meant it satirically, parodying RW TV and radio show hosts we all know and love.

[GoCubsGo]

38. Yes, and he also lied about their story.

He claimed for years that they escaped Castro. We just found out a few months ago that this was complete bullshit. It pissed off a lot of people, many of whom now see him as a big phoney.

[cthulu2016]

13. I suspect that is the best-odds pick.

The best odds pick might be only 15% chance, of course, but there is probably no outcome that is more likely.

[MrScorpio]

25. You're dead wrong...

It'll be:

[ddeclue]

27. lol.. funny but.. I'm being serious..

[Yavin4]

28. I Made That Same Prediction Two Years Ago

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x121408

[ddeclue]

30. The Force is STRONG with this one!

That's pretty impressive...

[TBF]

36. I thought so too

but folks inside the beltway are saying Rubio lost some of his charm with his fairy tales about when his family left Cuba. I still think he's a strong candidate, but maybe for 2016 rather than 2012.

[GoCubsGo]

39. Yep. And, what a fairy tale it was.

He claimed they escaped Castro, except that they came here while Batista was running the country. He also goes to an evangelical Protestant megachurch on and off, even though he's a Catholic. Can't make up his mind, or more likely, he's trying to suck up to everyone. Just like Mitt. They'd be a perfect team. A couple of big, handsome frauds.

[ddeclue]

48. I meant you not Rubio for your ability to see the future..

[TBF]

50. Me? I think you meant someone else

I only posted once in this thread.

I did think Rubio would be the VP pick this time, but after his tall tales he may need to rebuild his reputation a bit.

My thoughts from a year ago - http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x595621

[EC]

29. No way, are you kidding?

Rubio is much better looking and Romney won't stand for that. This is a vain man and there is no way on earth he'll have someone better looking and that much younger. It'll be Thune.

[MADem]

33. He also doesn't have a constant, frenetic "plead" in his voice, like Romney does.

There'd be too much "Should flip the ticket" talk. Can't have that. Needs to be someone bland enough to make him look exciting.

[DCBob]

34. I think it will be a woman.

But not anyone like Palin or Bachman.

[SaintPete]

35. Kay Bailey Hutchison

to make that Massachusetts / Texas connection.

[DCBob]

42. If the GOP had any sense they would pick her.

She would make Mittens look alot better to many voters.

[AlinPA]

37. Agree. It's an easy call for them.

[Puzzledtraveller]

40. Rubios recent letter to Obama

I think is a possible precursor to him being courted for veep.

If this is the ticket, we may want to start worrying.

[BlueStater]

45. Why?

Fuck that empty suit. Has he actually done anything in the short time he's been in the senate other than be an obnoxious obstructionist with the rest of his asshole party?

[SaintPete]

41. Rubio? Bring it on

Last edited Fri Jan 13, 2012, 12:07 AM - Edit history (1)

His intended target appeal is to Latinos and Floridians, but this conventional wisdom ignores the fact that Cubans are political minority in an ethnic minority. Assuming that Hispanics are just going to blindly vote for an Hispanic last name, without regard to policy, is not realistic. Speaking of popularity, Rubio's has dipped in Florida, and his negatives are up: (Link Here). In this poll, the majority of Floridians say they are less likely to vote Republican if Rubio is on the ticket!

So he' won't help. Can he hurt? There are the questions about the honesty of his personal story, and as far as I know, he still has expense account ethic issues swimming around from his Florida House days...

So yeah. Go Rubio!!! bring it on...

[Zalatix]

49. I agree. Just like Herman Cain, we need to face this guy straight up.

The Republicans keep having this dream of fielding non-white candidates to save them from their eventual demographic doom.

Let me explain.

Hispanic voters, at best, vote about 34% Republican, and the rest are Democrats. Black voter support for Republicans NEVER exceeds 10%. Even the collective Asian ethnic groups, who used to vote Republican, are now voting Democratic by slight majorities.

To put this in another perspective, outside the white voting block, Republicans lost by something far exceeding a landslide in 2010. And in 2010, minority births outnumbered white births for the first time. Call it "the browning of America", or as Republicans would never say to your face, "the brown menace".

This also defies the class-based explanations for why these racial voting divides exist. 90% of black America is not unemployed or in poverty, yet many of those who have beaten the system still vote Democratic. Same goes for Hispanics. Even if these groups increase in wealth, they are unlikely to shift toward the Republican party. The conservative streak in blacks and Hispanics are largely social - like gay rights and abortion. Their conservative streak hits a dead stop at economic issues.

Republicans see this, which is why they brought Marc Rubio to bear in Florida. And Rubio was a huge success, pulling in a well-above-average 50% of the Latino vote.

Rubio is quite literally a road map to the GOP's strategy for winning the Hispanic voting bloc. If they can win Hispanics over, they can save their party and even score lasting majorities even as America continues to go brown.

This same strategy was why Herman Cain was propelled into the limelight. The GOP wanted to use him to win over black voters. Herman Cain, for all his cruel remarks about the poor being poor because of "their own fault", actually represented the purity of Conservative thought. To us, Cain was outrageous, but from the perspective of a plutocrat, he was the perfect soldier. He flawlessly towed the party line, and the public flatly rejected Cain for his purity. Black voters, in particular, refused to flock to him (and he complained about this, too). The sexual harassment scandals were little more than the GOP's way of retiring their purist candidate - they wanted him gone because the American public had tasted Republican purity and found it quite... unpalatable. Cain's campaign was taking 50-caliber political headshots well before the scandals happened.

It is possible that Herman Cain laid to rest any hope of the GOP trying to break into the black voting bloc again, at least for the foreseeable future. The defeat of Cain was more than just the defeat of Cain - it was the burning of the GOP's only bridge into the black community.

So now the GOP's hopes lie with Marc Rubio.

We must have it out with Rubio and utterly discredit him - or, like what happened with Cain, let him discredit himself. We can't just derail him with scandals or force him into the darkness without a stand-up political fight.

We must discredit not only Rubio, but the possibility of a Republican bridge to the Hispanic community. Arguably, this may not be doable by "us"... but, rather, by Hispanics...

[Douglas Carpenter]

43. that's a definite posibility - but he may want an Evangelical Protestant on the ticket

a Mormon and a Catholic might be a hard sell these days in the Republican Party.

[Ter]

44. If Ron Paul comes in second...

And he threatens to run third party...Mitt may have no choice but to pick Rand Paul, his son.

[11 Bravo]

51. Perfect! A pretend refugee and a pretend ... everything. Talk about your marriage made in Heaven.