OFFICIAL Census results, Redistricting ahead... the numbers

[WarGamer]

Not as bad as feared for DEMS...

Changes House alignment by around R+6

Biden 2020 map would have lost just 3 EV's

Link to tweet

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Link to tweet

?s=20

[LetMyPeopleVote]

1. The Texas gop was counting on 3 to 4 new seat

Link to tweet

[WarGamer]

2. better than expected...

But GOP holding a clear advantage going into 2022 in the battle for the House.

[FBaggins]

4. Moderately... but that's just reapportionment

Redistricting is still to come.

[WarGamer]

6. It's pretty much written in stone that Texas and Florida will be +3 alone.

And California is what, 80% blue seats?

And with a non-partisan redistricting process... doesn't look good either

[FBaggins]

8. I'm not sure about Texas

Much as I've been rejecting the dreams that Beto and later Biden were going to win the state... it's still true that some of those seats are narrowing. The more districts that you try to turn red... the narrower your margins get throughout.

That was a particularly painful lesson for us in the 90s.

[PortTack]

14. Posted already FL only gained one, Tx was expected to gain 3 only gained 2

[FBaggins]

17. There's a difference between reapportionment and redistricting

WarGamer was responding to my #4 - and is saying that TX/FL are each supposed to be -3 for us when including both reapportionment and redistricting.

Both are possible - perhaps likely. And NC could swing another 2-3.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

18. Republican Incompetence Shorts Texas By A Congressional Seat and Hundreds of Millions of Dollars

Link to tweet

[judeling]

3. Not to sure about that R+6

We will have to see how the state level numbers work out. But there may be enough Blue control to lose mainly Red seats.

I'm looking at a State like Minnesota that will have a commission but the Red seats will have to expand into each other and grab the edges of the Blue seats that will contract into a more solid Blue.

[WarGamer]

5. Look at the State legislature control...

California, for example has a 100% non-partisan board, it might be a DEM seat lost.

Texas, Florida, WV, OH, NC you can count on those being gerrymandered red.

[judeling]

10. You have to consider State migration patterns

We don't have the distribution data yet, however it will be very hard for CA to lose a Blue seat. WV will lose a red seat. Most likely we will see pretty much a wash with Republicans getting some of their firm seats a lot more swingy.

[Celerity]

12. WV will lose a Rethug seat (they hold all 3 now). MT gaining one sucks, as that will likely go Red

I come up with

*TX +2 ( Rethugs gain 2) might be split, but doubtful
*CO +1 (we probably gain 1)
*FL +1 (Rethugs probably gain 1)
*MT +1 (Rethugs gain 1 almost for sure)
*NC +1 (Rethugs probably gain 1)
*OR +1 (we likely gain 1)

Rethugs probably gain 5, we gain 2

--
*CA -1 (Rethugs probably lose 1) although this is one we might lose 1
*IL -1 (Rethugs probably lose 1)
*MI -1 (we probably lose 1)
*NY -1 (Rethugs likely lose 1)
*OH -1 (we probably lose 1)
*PA -1 (we probably lose 1)
*WV -1 (Rethugs lose 1, 100% lock)

Rethugs probably lose 4, we lose 3

[PortTack]

15. Thx for posting..not nearly as bad as expected!

[FBaggins]

7. There is nowhere near enough "blue control"

Mostly lost in the rush of "Trump doesn't think he lost" news was the fact that we lost almost every state legislative control race that we were counting on to help that "blue control"

Here in NC for instance - the state picks up one new seat, but there are two districts that were reliably red that were just redrawn to blue for 2020... that will likely get new lines again.

[IronLionZion]

9. Some of those states have been getting bluer

So the GOP might feel overconfident as they try to use their state legislatures to gerrymander it. But the districts might end up being more competitive for us than expected.

[dsc]

11. There is some good, and some bad here

First among states losing

CA non partisan but it might wind up being a Dem seat since there are still few GOP seats.

Ohio is already so gerrymandered in favor of the GOP they will have to lose a set there.

Michigan is similar to Ohio

WV is a guaranteed GOP loss

NY is Dem controlled GOP loss

That leaves IL and PA sadly likely two Dem losses. We will likely either net 1 or 2 from this.

Among the gainers, we should gain in OR and CO, MT might well give us a competitive seat, rest will be bad. Worse NC recently had seats redrawn due to a court case making our split far more even (we went from 10 - 3 to 8 - 5). We could wind up 10 to 4 when all is said and done. So GOP plus 4 to 5 we up 3 so we could lose 2 to 3 here. Net GOP up 1. This could have been way worse.

[Deminpenn]

13. In PA, we have a Dem gov and an R legislature without

the votes to override a veto. Further, two years ago, the state supreme court threw out the highly gerry-mandered congressional districts and ordered they conform to state law that mandates compact districts that don't divide municipalities.

The Rs will likely try to eliminate Lamb's seat probably by extending Kelly's district southward and maybe including the MtLebo part of the district in Doyle's district. The Rs don't really have a lot of choices given the court's decision.

[Takket]

16. the house needs to be expanded. 1 rep per every 500k people

puts the house at 662. wyoming is sitting at about 500k and average district is now over 750k. it is absurd.