start of the pandemic, kids made up 2% of new COVID infections. Now, they make up 24%. What happened

[Demovictory9]

At the start of the pandemic, kids made up 2% of new COVID infections. Now, they make up 24%. What happened?

https://news.yahoo.com/start-pandemic-kids-made-2-100212984.html




In March 2020, children only accounted for about 2% of new infections. By the end of May, children made up more than 24% new weekly infections even though they only account for 16% of the population, according to data by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Health experts say it’s a sign more adults and adolescents need to get vaccinated to avoid bringing the virus home and spreading it to children that aren’t yet eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine.

“The virus is an equal opportunity infector. It doesn’t care if you’re young or old,” said Dr. Robert Frenck, professor of pediatrics and director of the Center for Vaccine Research at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, who presented the data at a Johns Hopkins University-University of Washington symposium Wednesday called “Covid-19 and Kids: Impacts, Uncertainties and the Role of Vaccines.”

More than 4 million children have tested positive for COVID-19 in the US, 18,500 were hospitalized and 336 have died from the disease, according to the AAP. About 4,000 kids have been hospitalized with multisystem inflammatory syndrome children or MIS-C – a rare, but dangerous condition the CDC says is associated with COVID-19.

[ProfessorGAC]

1. Just A Different Dataset, No?

47% of adults fully vaxxed. 52% at least one shot. Numbers still rising.
Since data is showing >90% of vaxxed people aren't getting infected, the proportion of susceptible population that are kids goes way up. (Roughly doubles)
Also, on April 12, 2020 the 7 day moving average of daily cases was 32,389. That makes around 650 kids, if 2% is correct.
Yesterday, the 7 day MA of cases was 14,164.
Yes, that makes 3,500 kids infected which is a big uptick, but if it were 24% back in April 2020, that would be 8,000 cases.
If we move "early in the pandemic" to one year ago (the 3rd month of the pandemic) the 7 day MA was 51,800. 2% is over 1,030.
It's a real phenomenon, but the 2-24 figures make it sound much worse than it is. That makes it seem 12x the problem, when it's real only about 5.4 times an increase in actual cases. Depending upon exact timing of "early" it could be as low as 4x the number of cases as kids.
Also, I've found 2 other cites at 20 & 21%. That could be fewer than 3,000 cases or about 4.5 times the early pandemic period.
Lastly, even where in-person schooling was done, mask wearing was rigidly enforced in most cases.
Kids are out now, playing sports, hanging out, and probably maskless.
Worthy of attention, but potentially misleading.

[Blue_true]

10. I get your math.

But what you don’t seem to be taking into account is the Delta variant. That is just beginning to take hold in the USA. It has caused big problems in Israel and Great Britain, two places with higher vaccine levels than we have.

To me, it looks like the Coronavirus is going to play out as a have versus have nots virus. Cities, except for poorer sections of them will be ok. Rural areas that are poor health deserts will get hammered. Fortunately, most people in this country live in cities or their nearby suburbs. I believe that we are seeing that now in the death total, the number is creeping up at a much slower rate than we have seen during the pandemic, that says that thinner slices of the country’s populace are at risk of getting sick enough to die.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. We Disagree Somewhat

Cases went up 6% over a period of time when the fraction of delta went from 10% to 26% of cases.
Also, many concerned over delta reference the Israeli study where nearly 50% of infections were among vaxxed people.
But, in the US, Canada, Australia, & the UK (a total population of 40x that of Israel) the fraction of delta infections amongst vaxxed people ran from from 11-18%. I think it's premature to consider the Israeli number representative of total population, because at this point it appears to be an outlier. Outliers like this are often rooted in data collection errors.
While Delta is a legitimate concern overall, it feels overstated for vaxxed people in many quarters.
The part of about low vax % areas in low hospital capacity regions; we agree completely.

[abqtommy]

2. People who aren't vaccinated are spreading and experienceing covid infection. Let's get

everyone on the vaxx track.

[Murphyb849]

3. Exactly. And Delta spreads quick and likes kids.

The Trumpers are killing children now. I guess the elderly, the black/brown and the essential workers didn't make a big enough Butchers Bill. They have so much blood on their hands and God will not forget. Nor will we.

[RockRaven]

4. Turns out when you massively change the denominator, the resulting percent changes!

What will they think of next?


The vaccines work. Cases are dropping like a rock amongst the vaccinated. ALL of the vaccinated are 12+. Of course the percentage of cases which occur in children is going to rise -- we're eliminating a huge portion of the non-child cases. But it makes for a good clickbait headline.

[Amishman]

16. Bingo, this seems like just statistical fallout of widespread vaccination of adults

Not to mention expanded testing that now does a better job of identifying mild cases - like those common in children.

[Phoenix61]

5. I understand it's a function of math not disease but

if it convinces people to get vaxed to keep their kids safe I’ll take it as a win. Whatever it takes.

[roamer65]

6. The more enhancements to a variants spike proteins, the easier an attachment to an ACE2 receptor.

So children below 12 attending in-person learning will start the fall wave of infections.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

7. And aside from the number of adults vaccinated,

a lot more people than we will ever know got it and recovered. A year ago I was hearing any number of stories about people having some of the symptoms, especially loss of smell. Even the ones who got it and are now not getting vaccinated, do have some immunity. So the virus is just doing its best to survive by infecting those still vulnerable and evolving new variants to stay alive.

[Blue_true]

12. Or, figuring out how to defeat the body's natural or induced (vaccines) immune response.

The longer there are large numbers of unvaccinated people, the greater the danger is to everyone, because the not vaxxed give the variants a population to perfect it’s ability to evade any immunity response. The one silver lining is that as the virus becomes better at evading all immunity response, it likely gives up it’s ability to kill (hence it survives forever in a new host).

[Crunchy Frog]

8. Part of it is that in March 2020, there was very low testing availability.

Since children tended to be asymptomatic, or get only mild illness, there would have been very little incentive to test most of them at that point. I have no doubt that the real infection rates were higher.

It's not surprising that the numbers are rising, with testing far more available, new variants that spread more easily and may cause more severe illness, and most children not being vaccinated.

I just hope we don't get a strain that causes high rates of severe illness in children.

[salin]

9. a) more older folks are vaccinated and b) Delta is more virulent and attacks younger people more

aggressively than the original covid

[Yavin4]

11. If we don't mandate taking the vaccines, we will have covid surges among some populations.

This is to be expected.

[boston bean]

13. Masking.

[GulfCoast66]

14. Pretty easy to me.

The numbers of Covid cases in my area have plummeted as more people get vaccinated. Plus those that have had it. Kids can’t get the vaccine. If 6 months ago 1000 people had it and 20 were kids then you get 2%.

If today 100 people test positive and 20 are kids you get 20%.

The percentages among children has perhaps not increased. But their rate compared to people who are vaccinated will predictably go way up.