2nd a series. What is the probability new infections can largely be confined to the unvaccinated?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

What is the probability new infections can largely be confined to the unvaccinat
Could Covid 19 blow up to pre vaccine levels if thirty percent of the population refuses to be vaccinated and what are the ramifications?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215627684

I was reading in the Los Angeles Times that 99.6% of the new infections are among those unvaccinated. * The rates are roughly similar for hospitalizations and deaths. What is the probability new infections can largely be confined to the unvaccinated?










*Officials have stressed that those who have been inoculated have an excellent chance of being protected, even from the easily spread Delta variant, believed to be twice as transmissible as the conventional coronavirus strains. Between Dec. 7 and June 7, the unvaccinated accounted for 99.6% of L.A. County’s coronavirus cases, 98.7% of COVID-19 hospitalizations and 99.8% of deaths.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-15/l-a-county-will-require-masks-indoors-amid-covid-19-surge

[enid602]

1. Darwin

It will be Darwin’s version of the Republicans’ voter suppression laws.

[lagomorph777]

2. Hospitalizations and deaths are almost entirely in the unvaccinated.

Protection against mild or asymptomatic infection is considerably less, so new infections are definitely not confined to the unvaccinated.

Looking at the whole picture, vaccination is hugely beneficial, for now. We will surely need an update ( "booster" ) before very long, but any intelligent person will definitely want to get one of the current mRNA vaccines.

[LisaL]

7. Yep.

Vaccinated people are still getting infected.
Some will die.
It certainly is beneficial, but it's not bullet proof (as some here erroneously believe).

[Quakerfriend]

3. At ant time, a given variant can evolve into another variant that may

evade all protections conferred by the current vaccines.

[LisaL]

4. 99.8% number can not be accurate.

Even at clinical trials, vaccine efficacy was 95% (for Pfizer). That's when variants weren't widely circulating. Efficacy is less for Delta. (Israel reporting only 66% efficacy).
So, 99.8% number is not accurate.

[TeslaNova]

5. Unfortunately it won't stay that way

The more it spreads the more it mutates which will eventually make the vaccine useless. The only good thing is they seem to be on top of rapid mass producing and hopefully formulating new variants of the vaccine quickly. Thanks to the Death Cult this is going to be around for the next decade or longer.

[WHITT]

8. Ugh

The bastards all need a good Cher slap. Snap out of it!

Tough when they're all drinking the Orange Kool-Aid.

[hlthe2b]

6. The nonvaccinated will serve as a giant mixing bowl, an incubator for new variants...

--one or more that may develop mutations able to overcome at least some of the immunity conferred by both natural immunity from previous infection and that conferred by current vaccines. As that develops, we will see more cases among the fully vaccinated but still greatly surpassed by those among the unvaccinated.

It is only a matter of time. Our hope is that we can continue to vaccinate to buy us time. Pfizer and Moderna (and others) are keeping on top of the variants with their booster development and the time will undoubtedly come when they will be needed. How much time we buy before that is predicted by both vaccination efforts and masking/social distancing behaviors. The former has major roadblocks. The latter has been all but dismantled, prematurely IMO, but a reaction to the increasingly violence-inciting forces serving as obstacles.

[LisaL]

9. Our cdc and fda declared that we don't need boosters (for now).

They are observing how many serious cases will occur among the vaccinated. Well, by the time vaccinated start dropping like flies, it will be too late to plan.
How about plan for boosters now?

[hlthe2b]

10. They are monitoring closely and the ACIP (CDC advisory committee) will reasess as needed

They can reconvene on a dime to do so. Pfizer and others are producing these booster vaccines regardless and FDA will grant emergency authorization for their use if it becomes clear they are imminently needed.

My issue is not continuing emphasis on indoor masking for all, even if they can't mandate it. Bad messaging IMO, though I know they were trying to avoid further undermining confidence in vaccination. We are already ruing the day that masking was deemphasized IMO.

[LisaL]

11. Booster vaccines need to be produced in large numbers.

Then they need to be distributed and so on.
CDC stopped reporting numbers of break through infections unless they result in hospitalizations or deaths.
So people who are vaccinated think they are bullet proof.
As evidenced by OP claiming 99.8% of infections were among un-vaccinated- that is not accurate.

[hlthe2b]

21. We have diminished routine COVID testing, so arguably the most accurate assessment

is from clinically ill confirmed COVID-19 positive cases, whether hospitalized or not. The data on asymptomatic infection among the vaccinated still needs to come from cohort studies, not convenience sampling among those tested.

The issue of when to begin booster doses needs to come from both the clinically ill/hospitalized surveillance, the in-vitro studies of virus mutation versus neutralizing antibodies produced by both natural infection and that conferred by the vaccine, and studies on monoclonal antibody response to the new variants--all which are ongoing. Right now the vaccine trial efficacy remains consistent with what is being observed among the vaccinated. When that changes, boosters will be recommended. No one needs to tell the vaccine manufacturers to DO so. The very reason we had mRNA vaccines so quickly is that they have been doing so all along--ever since SARs (2003) and MERS (2,012). Just because ACIP has not yet recommended booster doses has no effect on Pfizer and other's continued development and internal monitoring.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. What do you make of the fact that nearly all the new COVID infections are among the unvaccinated?

*Officials have stressed that those who have been inoculated have an excellent chance of being protected, even from the easily spread Delta variant, believed to be twice as transmissible as the conventional coronavirus strains. Between Dec. 7 and June 7, the unvaccinated accounted for 99.6% of L.A. County’s coronavirus cases, 98.7% of COVID-19 hospitalizations and 99.8% of deaths.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-15/l-a-county-will-require-masks-indoors-amid-covid-19-surge

[LisaL]

14. I don't believe this number.

CDC is not reporting break through infections unless they lead to hospitalization or death.
In both Israel and UK, where delta is spreading, number of vaccinated getting break through infections are much higher than 0.4%. More like 20-30%.
The reported efficacy of Pfizer is 95 % (before variants started widely circulate). It's said to be lower for delta.
Maybe a lot lower (based on Israel's numbers).
So how would that number be possible?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Those numbers are from the Board Of Health.

[LisaL]

17. And it doesn't make sense.

Like I said, CDC is not reporting break through infections unless they result in hospitalization or death.

[hlthe2b]

16. What do I make of it? That is to be expected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. That suggests for the time being the unvaccinated are making themselves sick or worse.

And for now, the vaccinated are largely spared.

[hlthe2b]

22. Yes

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. TBH I believe those who refuse to get vaccinated are more stupid than selfish.

I don't believe they intend to harm others. I believe they think the vaccines are harmful and COVID isn't serious.

[ananda]

13. Not very high since the virus will keep mutating.

nt

[muriel_volestrangler]

18. That "99.6%" is NOT about "new infections". It's about OLD infections - Dec 7 to Jun 7

For L.A., that's pre-Delta variant. As far as cases go, it's also basically pre-vaccination. California numbers (but LA County is a third of those, so broadly accurate):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/

Dec 7: 1,401,873 cases
Jan 7: 2,588,599 cases
Feb 7: 3,417,149 cases
Jun 7: 3,793,425 cases

So about half of the cases under discussion happened before Jan 7 - just 3% of the over 16 population had had one dose by Jan 11. Nearly all the cases were before Feb 7 - by which time only about 13% had received one vaccine dose.

So all those statistics in the OP show is that the old variants were somewhat prevented by the first dose of the vaccine, but how much by just cannot be said without using the figures on how many people, at the time most infections happened, had been vaccinated.

[LisaL]

19. True. If barely anybody was vaccinated, then almost all infections will be in un-vaccinated.

Basically, the number is skewed by the fact that they start counting before anybody was vaccinated (of course all cases will be in un-vaccinated then).
It doesn't tell you accurately what % of vaccinated are getting infected with delta.

[roamer65]

23. If they are quarantined into camps, it can be contained very well.

This is what we have FEMA for...emergency situations.

[qazplm135]

25. I'm vaccinated and I have it now

Girlfriend also vaccinated and finds out in an hour if she has it (probably).

Symptoms are minor which is the point of vaccination.

So those numbers are wrong but vaccinations of this type aren't a bulletproof shield, they give your immune system the tools to turn a deadly disease into a nuisance.