This historian predicted Jan. 6. Now he warns of greater violence.

[sinkingfeeling]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/15/american-democracy-survived-its-reichstag-fire-jan-6-threat-has-not-subsided/

American democracy survived that coup attempt on Jan. 6. But the danger has not subsided. I called Snyder, who accurately predicted the insurrection, to ask how the history of European authoritarianism informs our current state.

"We’re looking almost certainly at an attempt in 2024 to take power without winning election,” he told me Thursday. Recent moves in Republican-controlled state legislatures to suppress the votes of people of color and to give the legislatures control over casting electoral votes “are all working toward the scenario in 2024 where they lose by 10 million votes but they still appoint their guy.”

Many others are sounding similar alarms. A survey of 327 political scientists released this week by Bright Line Watch, a project by scholars at Dartmouth College, the University of Chicago and the University of Rochester, found widespread concern: The experts collectively estimated a 55 percent likelihood that at least some local officials will refuse to certify vote counts in 2024, a 46 percent likelihood that one or more state legislatures will pick electors contrary to the popular vote, and a 39 percent likelihood that Congress will refuse to certify the election.

***********
Complete OpEd is behind WP paywall.

[Cerridwen]

1. Without paywall link below:

https://archive.ph/MLnMz

[Bucky]

46. Thank you...

nice trick

[lagomorph777]

2. But it's more important to protect the Filibuster than to protect elections.

[KS Toronado]

30. Tired of some of our politicians stating whataboutisms in regards to the filibuster

Just get rid of it and LEAD this Country in the direction it needs to go. If Moscow Mitch
ever regains his power, he'd never give a second thought to killing it.

[global1]

3. What Would It Take To Do Away With The Electoral College Before 2024?....

Then the election would only be based on the popular vote.

[katmondoo]

4. I think 2/3rds of States have to approve. This won't happen in today's world.

I believe it is in the Constitution.

[Bucky]

65. 3/4ths actually

You need 38 states of the 50.

[Under The Radar]

5. A constitutional convention

…and I doubt that there will be another one of those in my lifetime.

[SharonAnn]

23. That would be very, very dangerous for "We the people"

Property would be enshrined into law, the more money you have the more votes you have.
Totalitarian government.

[Bucky]

48. A new constitutional convention would not be hard to call for

People are angry enough, and states are riled up enough, to reach the ⅔'s other states threshold. But then you've got to get ¾'s of the states to approve any amendments the convention proposes.

That means you'd need 38 of the 50 states to approve. So no, you won't see property protections enshrined and laws above what they are already. You won't see multiple voting based on property ownership passed. You won't get anti-abortion amendments or supergun amendments or prayer in school amendments added to the Constitution.

The only amendments that are at risk of coming out of a new convention and getting ratified by 38 states would be balanced budget (which is trouble) or Congressional term limits.

[FakeNoose]

60. That would be playing into the hands of the ultra-right

They have wanted a constitutional convention & rewrite for years. I can remember such talk even back when Reagan was elected. Our good intentions wouldn't matter - the ultra-right would hijack our convention so fast and turn it into what THEY want: remaking the USA into a plutocratic oligarchy.

No Democrats, we cannot risk such a thing happening. A constitutional convention (to abolish the Electoral College) would be a setup and we'd be the losers.

[Bucky]

64. Thet can't really "hijack" a constitutional convention into any effect

First off, a 2nd constitutional convention isn't something to be feared. It can't create new laws or new amendments or even a whole new constitutional structure by itself. All it could do is propose either amendments or a new constitution.

But more importantly, the ratification process for new amendments has an insurmountable high bar of requiring 38 states to approve any constitutional changes. We can and should fear the idea of theocratic government or some extreme right wing lunacy coming to power in the country. But it won't happen by the ratification process. Controversial changes simply can't happen because they can't get the 38 states.

What crazy GOP idea would be ratified by 9 of these states? HI, CA, OR, WA, NV, CO, NM, IL, MN, WI, OH, MI, PA, MD, DE, NY, VT, CT, MA, NH, ME.

Prayer in school, abortion, the flat tax, and all the other cockamamie Republican ideas simply lack the support. Unlike in Congress, it's a structure where you would need to find liberal and conservative support.

The only things the left and right might agree on are the balance budget amendment (which always has a self defanging clause that allows exceptions for "emergencies'') and term limits for Congress.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Passing voting rights is easier than amending the Constitution. Nt

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

20. Exactly!

I believe it will be passed.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

58. Not to say we shouldn't fight to pass it, but don't recent SCOTUS rulings on voting rights

suggest they would side with the Rs who are sure to try to get it ruled unconstitutional?

[Fiendish Thingy]

61. Only on elements of HR4; HR1 seems to be safely constitutional

HR4 (John Lewis Act) rewrites those elements of the 1965 VRA that were overturned by SCOTUS and deals specifically with states’ conduct in suppressing minority voters.

HR1 (For The People Act) is much broader, creating national election standards using Congress’ Constitutionally designated power to direct federal elections. It addresses gerrymandering, early voting, absentee voting, Sunday voting, transparency in disclosing dark money donors, and a bunch of other significant regulations.

[patphil]

17. There is nothing that can be done to eliminate the EC in that timeframe.

It will take an amendment to the Constitution, and 2/3 ratification by the states. Even in the unlikely event that we could get an amendment through Congress, it would never be ratified by the states. Too many are under Republican control, and they aren't going to do it.

We are stuck with it.

[lagomorph777]

33. A giant asteroid.

[MarcA]

38. What is the current status of the States compact

on automatically awarding their EC votes to the popular vote winner? How many State ECs to go?

[roamer65]

6. I am looking forward to living in the Province of Michigan.

With our new national capital of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

Will send a shout out to the Provinces of New York and New England when we come aboard!

[Ocelot II]

9. Can Minnesota come too?

[roamer65]

11. Province of Minnesota has a nice ring to it as well.

👍

Most Minnesotans already sound Canadian, anyway. Easy switchover.

[ShazamIam]

34. You might have to add So. CA and Arizona where so many Canadiens spend their winters.

[Canoe52]

19. The Alliance of Western Costal States welcomes you!

[Elessar Zappa]

21. Problem with states seceding

is that no one would be able to keep their social security or Medicare.

[roamer65]

25. Canada has national health insurance and a better old age pension.

[Elessar Zappa]

27. I'm not positive

Canada would allow that many people to join their country or use its programs. Secession won’t happen anytime soon, we fought a war over it. The US won’t be quick to let states leave. It’s better that we find a way to defeat the fascists now before it’s too late.

[roamer65]

28. Canada would definitely be on board with it.

It would bolster their social programs and add economic might to their confederation.

It would also give the country a land bridge from Ontario to the Atlantic provinces, bypassing Quebec.

The land bridge would make Quebec separation pretty much a non-issue.

[Elessar Zappa]

31. Only if the United States government allowed it.

Canada would likely be met with force if they in any way claimed sovereignty over any of the states.

[roamer65]

43. What part of it?

[MiHale]

24. I'm down with it...

Then the argument can continue…Labatts or Molsen actually since Coors merged with Molsen, Brasseurs du Monde is the clear winner. Anyone that brews a 25% beer is tops!

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. This is why focusing on November 2022 is a naive folly- Direct action is required NOW. Nt

[smirkymonkey]

29. +1000

This is what I have been saying since February. We don't have time to "see how things go". We know exactly what they will do and we have to prepare now to fend off the worst case scenario.

[triron]

41. Democrats seem to be asleep at the wheel (or at least many of them).

[JustAnotherGen]

47. Plus 1000 - adding

It has to lead by the citizens of WV and AZ standing on the line of harassment of Sinema and Manchin.

They are playing pretty fast and loose with my ability to be recognized as a human being, an American, and a voter.

[Oneironaut]

10. There is palpable hate in the atmosphere. I can feel it.

I’m a trans woman. In a matter of 2 weeks, I’ve had 3 people openly get close to me and stare me in the eyes aggressively, walking by slowly, as if to let me know that they hate me. Everyone one was a stereotypical Trumpite. I’m not imagining it either - they did it overtly in a way that there could be no ambiguity.

If this continues, I’m almost certainly going to be attacked by someone in some way soon. It’s the logical escalation of what I’ve been facing in the last few months.

It’s getting worse. I wanted to believe it wasn’t, but I can see the intense hatred festering. Right wing media is intensifying hate propaganda. It wasn’t like this even 4 months ago - it’s getting really bad now.

I’m scared. I’m not going to stop being me, but resentment against the LGBT community, minorities, and Liberals in general is growing. Resentment against academia and education is growing. I don’t want this country to become Nazi Germany.

[roamer65]

12. What state do you live in?

..and what area of it?

[Oneironaut]

13. While I don't want to give too much away,

It’s a blue state that isn’t stereotypically associated with bigotry. Most people here are generally accepting. However, too many are seething at the moment. It’s definitely palpable.

[roamer65]

14. I hear ya.

I feel it and I am seething with hate for Dumpists.

[calimary]

39. I'm there, too.

[vercetti2021]

32. You're not alone

I'm currently transitioning to female as well and I know what I'm in for. But also I'm carrying protection for the same reason. I can't show fear. Never have before in my life to anyone I didn't know

[triron]

42. DOJ better wake the fuck up and prosecute Trump and Giuliani and some others.

[I_UndergroundPanther]

55. I am transgendered myself

FtM ,nonbinary.
I have seen the hostility go up too. Out at the grocery store the..stupid comments.
Magat types.
I am scared too.

[kentuck]

15. I agree with him.

If Trump is their nominee, they will take no chances on losing. They will fix the election. He has no plans on losing again.

[NEOBuckeye]

35. TFG won't get that far

But someone else a bit smarter might. That’s the real worry.

[A HERETIC I AM]

54. DeSantis

I’d bet a days pay on it.

[Shell_Seas]

16. Trumpers are already planning violence for August 7, 2021.

They will be storming state capitols all over the country.

[roamer65]

26. Hopefully our governor brings out the National Guard and uses it.

Gov Whitmer has every reason to do it.

[calimary]

40. Any significance to that specific date?

[Shell_Seas]

57. The hell if I know. According to them, Trump will be reinstated in August...because???

Qnuts live in an alternate universe.

[calimary]

62. Well, that's for sure.

[oldsoftie]

44. I've already heard that twice. Nothing happened

These half wits are only going to talk

[ScratchCat]

45. I don't get the "concern" either

For what purpose are they going to "storm" State Capitol buildings? To get arrested and ruin their lives and those of their families?

[oldsoftie]

56. Especially now that they see thats what will happen

of course, there are those "rogue" nutjobs that always have to be considered

[Walleye]

18. Look at the way they treated Caitlyn Jenner, and she's one of their own

Last edited Fri Jul 16, 2021, 02:24 PM - Edit history (1)

[NEOBuckeye]

37. Caitlyn is a fool

The Republicans will never tolerate her in any position of influence. She is courting disaster. I would actually fear for her safety around them.

[GoodRaisin]

49. Her mother is a hardcore Republican,

which may explain Caitlyn's odd embrace of "conservative values", being brought up that way. What Caitlyn doesn't apparently "get" is that once she came out as trans, she needed to switch ideology, immediately, hard stop. These hateful people don't want her in their party.

[Walleye]

51. Well I understand why is she is a Republican, but after the way she was treated a reasonable person

Find a way to switch parties for their own self preservation if nothing else

[GoodRaisin]

52. She should have expected to be treated this way by Republicans.

Coming out as trans and conservative at the same time was ignoring all the warning signs.

[Walleye]

50. A complete fool. I feel for her but I can't quite reach

[rickyhall]

22. Nothing changes. So what's new?

[griffi94]

36. This has been incremental

When the nutters were allowed to hijack that wildlife sanctuary in Oregon with no serious consequences, that only emboldened them more. These are people who believe that reality television and pro wrestling are real. Social media has enabled them to find each other.

[Kablooie]

53. This was predicted in 1997 by the book "The Fourth Turning"

The Fourth Turning is a book written in 1997 that describes a recurring generation cycle in American and global history.
It states that a major crisis recurs in American history at the end of every 80-90 years.
It demonstrates how and why history has followed this pattern from the middle ages to the present day.
The past US crises were: The American Revolution - The Civil War - WWII

A Crisis is a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.

The Crisis climax is human history's equivalent to nature's raging typhoon, the kind that sucks all surrounding matter into a single swirl of ferocious energy. Anything not lashed down goes flying; anything standing in the way gets flattened.

Whatever the event and whatever the outcome, a society passes through a great gate of history, fundamentally altering the course of civilization.

If the Crisis catalyst comes on schedule, around the year 2005, then the climax will be due around 2020, the resolution around 2026.

----

NOTE: Steve Bannon subscribes to this theory and expects that Trumpism will be the victor at the end of the climax.
It looks like a crisis may occur right on schedule with the Republicans attempting to grasp permanent power over the US government in 2024. We'll just have to wait and see how it all resolves.

More detail about the theory:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

[Ilsa]

59. Regarding your last

paragraph: is it too much to hope that TFG gets the delta variant and crashes and burns from it? I don't know who would take up the mantle after him.

[triron]

63. Like Dr. Snyder says, Jan 6 'failed coup' was only practice.

Yet our DOJ has not prosecuted the ringleaders.