New Study: Clock is ticking on modern civilization

[misanthrope]

A new study by one of the world's largest accounting firms seems to confirm a 1972 MIT hypothesis that modern civilization will self-destruct around the year 2040.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xw3x/new-research-vindicates-1972-mit-prediction-that-society-will-collapse-soon?fbclid=IwAR234WI1659EyDGRVRsMS25BtCkWyZEIqvnrrYyCrQ4JXDerpwhDFFn2gbA

Herrington’s new analysis examines data across 10 key variables, namely population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint. She found that the latest data most closely aligns with two particular scenarios, ‘BAU2’ (business-as-usual) and ‘CT’ (comprehensive technology).

“BAU2 and CT scenarios show a halt in growth within a decade or so from now,” the study concludes. “Both scenarios thus indicate that continuing business as usual, that is, pursuing continuous growth, is not possible. Even when paired with unprecedented technological development and adoption, business as usual as modelled by LtG would inevitably lead to declines in industrial capital, agricultural output, and welfare levels within this century.”

[Throck]

1. That's it. I quit.

Going to cash in my retirement and live a life of debauchery and sin before the big one hits.

[roamer65]

2. That's the best plan I've heard yet!

I’ll be 75 in 2040, so at that point if I am alive I won’t care anymore.

[Throck]

3. Stocking up on bourbon and gin.

[lanlady]

4. of course you'll be alive!

I'll be 83 in 2040 and have every intention of being at the end-of-civilization party. Join me for drinks on the terrasse?

[roamer65]

6. 👍👍

To the end of the world as we know it!

[Throck]

7. Woohoo I'm in.

[Jim__]

5. Do you know if her paper or the MIT paper discusses the likelihood of these shortages leading to war

I read the article on VICE and bookmarked the full study. But just reading through the article, I kept thinking that the types of shortages they're talking about could easily trigger a war. Rather than tell their citizens that they have to cut back on their lifestyles, I would expect governments to point at the activities of other countries and claim that malicious action by them is the cause of the problem.

[Throck]

8. The Club of Rome predicted this in the 70s.

[misanthrope]

9. I completely agree with your suppositions

Last edited Fri Jul 16, 2021, 06:11 PM - Edit history (2)

That's what the evidence provided by human history, and biology in general, tells us will happen. Sorry, but I don't have insights as to whether or how much warfare was factored in.

EDIT TO ADD:
I think the economic influence of industrial output on this scenario isn't the primary driver. Our ecological impact alone is what will do all of this.

[rickyhall]

10. Taking reservations at The Restaurant at the End of Universe.

Douglas Adams will be the MC.

[abqtommy]

12. + 100 Yup...

[TheProle]

11. Check this out

eerie.