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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNate Silver - the freak out about the Israeli vaccine effectiveness is due to poor analysis.
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Link to tweet
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The analysis was poorly done. Most likely, the vaccine has an 80 ish percentage effectiveness at preventing infection.
Johnny2X2X
(18,747 posts)And this study even said as much in their release, they said they weren't ready for peer review and their data was incomplete.
Link to tweet
?s=20
48656c6c6f20
(7,638 posts)PortTack
(32,606 posts)Methodology, and refuse to admit it, or change their methods. I will wait to see what the medical experts that analyze these kinds of studies say
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)really the only one that doesn't have many institutions working to elect Republicans? Like CNN, MSNBC, AP, NYT, and most other MSM among media, but not the pollsters? Aside from those mentioned who set up their own polling functions to provide support for their analysis, of course.
brooklynite
(93,880 posts)They don't do polling; they evaluate available data.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,372 posts)538 analyzes other polls, and grades other polling houses methodology.
They were the most accurate predictor in 2016, giving Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning, and predicting the razor thin margins in the rust belt.
Mariana
(14,849 posts)So they insist that 538 was wrong.
Bucky
(53,805 posts)I can tell you one in three means "unlikely but less than a fluke", which is the perfect description for the Trump presidency
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)Peppertoo
(435 posts)Bucky
(53,805 posts)Not sure that's the same as being "untrustworthy"
TheBlackAdder
(28,076 posts).
You have to check out the additional findings that follow the pages I being at, such as the UK report Page 38-39 and more.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15631125
.
Scrivener7
(50,774 posts)than the original variant
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/17/1017075240/delta-variant-is-spreading-fast-and-new-cases-are-rising-is-time-to-mask-up-agai
means we still have a decent chance of getting the virus. Though I know I am much less likely to die or be hospitalized, we don't know how subject to debilitating long covid vaccinated people are.
Still need to be very careful.
totodeinhere
(13,037 posts)determine the best therapies for it.
But I have always been careful even before this pandemic started. So I agree with being careful. But having said that, fully vaccinated people, even people with underlying conditions, are much better off if fully vaccinated.
If we concentrate too much on the rare exceptions where the fully vaccinated get serious breakthrough infections we are inadvertently giving people just another excuse for not getting vaccinated. We are already hearing from the right "why get vaccinated when it doesn't work?" Of course in most cases it does indeed work.
hlthe2b
(101,730 posts)His assessment is highly probable/credible.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1420059122725183491.html
We can see that cities on the lower quartile had low number of cases until recently, but since mid-July, most cases are coming from those cities.
This is what we got wrong. This wave started from cities with high vaccination rate and couldnt find unvaccined adults at risk. The denominator we need to use until mid-July is >95% vaccination rate and not the countrys average.
So to summarize, the vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe cases and probably also symptomatic diseases, even for those vaccinated early.
Just to correct one misconception from my thread - many of you understood that we think there is no waning immunity. This analysis does not reject the waning hypothesis, it just shows that the vaccines are still highly effective even with possible waning.
Peppertoo
(435 posts)Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(107,112 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,161 posts)Here:
The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant.
However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215656268
I think Silver needs to find people who were actually "freaking out" about severe illness, and talk to them directly, rather than broadbrushing the world with "a lot of you" as if he knows something special. "Probably also" is a claim without the data to back it up.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts).... At what the efficacy of symptomatic is versus some heartline numbers that were presented by Israel first.
Where's the CDC has numbers on this with the Delta variant but they're only counting critical and lethal outcomes of infection versus just infection.
CDC is basically saying even with Delta around 95% of people end up in the hospital or dead
19% of people have long haul symptoms from the original variant I still don't want to catch Delta
Peppertoo
(435 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,161 posts)and he didn't aim his sloppy claim at people on DU. His tweets are worse than he has shown the original Israeli report to have been.
Peppertoo
(435 posts)People all too eager to seek out outliers especially if they conform to their preconceived notions.
Doc Sportello
(7,455 posts)At least from a scientific point of view. But, caveats often don't make it out to the public. And people on here were freaking out about it and when I pointed out the questionable elements of this study the poster just doubled down.
ProfessorGAC
(64,427 posts)I think some folks really need to be out front of the worst case scenario, that they lose some of their analytical reasoning.
Without doing a deep dive into every data analysis used, I always found it concerning that the Israeli findings were so radically different than other populations under study. Just seemed peculiar that other results were so much more positive.
BlueLucy
(1,609 posts)but my pharmacy would not let me. I'm going to try my DR.