We may have an issue in California

[Marius25]

New polls showing Newsom recall succeeding. Turnout is looking like it's going to be high for the GOP, low for Dems/Ind.

That could lead to a Republican Governor. Feinstein is almost 90. If she dies or resigns under a Republican Governor, he could appoint a GOP replacement, costing us the Senate majority.

I will never understand why we have such low turnout in off-year elections.

[bahboo]

1. it's early yet, over a month to go...

Newsom raised a lot of money. Let's see how this plays out. But yep, Dems gotta bring it and crush this recall...

[Eliot Rosewater]

2. If not I might just fucking give up

[VarryOn]

3. Newsom has a huge bank account...

And he's pretty. He'll win in a close one.

[Lovie777]

6. LOL!. . .

as for the race, not gonna be close.

[JohnSJ]

8. The polls indicate 3 point difference, and very close

[JohnSJ]

7. He should, but it all depends on turnout of Democrats

[IcyPeas]

4. Californians better send their ballots in

They have been banging this drum on right wing hate radio out here for months. I have seen tables in front of stores with recall petitions . The place I used to go for my smog check had a freaking petition in the customer waiting area.

And P.S. I'm in a very blue area near Los angeles.

WAKE UP FELLOW CALIFORNIANS

GOTV

[JohnSJ]

9. +++

[onecaliberal]

13. Ours will be mailed on Monday.

Not only no, but HELL NO! X 4 in my house.

[JohnSJ]

5. Every registered voter will get a vote by mail ballot, with paid postage. There are a large number

of registered Democrats compared to repukes

No excuse for not voting

I will be signing in to a Newsom video call tomorrow to get out the vote

[Sibelius Fan]

19. 10-million registered Ds in CA, 5.7-million Rs.

It’s not going to be close, especially with every voter getting a mail-in ballot.

[JohnSJ]

20. Can't take anything for granted

[Sibelius Fan]

21. The numbers are the numbers. Indies outnumber Rs in CA, and they vote

overwhelmingly for Ds. Newsom still has a high approval rating, and the Rs don’t have a celeb candidate like they did last time.


A recent poll showed that:

90% of registered Rs are interested in the recall = 4.7-million

58% of registered Ds are interested = 5.8-million.

BTW - there are 5.6-million registered Indie voters in CA, outnumbering Rs. 53% of Indie voters being interested in the recall = 2.9-million. Indie voters in CA vote for Ds 46% of the time, 37% of the time for Rs.

Add it all up and you have 7.1-million Ds and D-leaning Indies interested in the recall and 5.7-million Rs and R-leaning Indies interested in the recall.

Just another poll that is only concerning if one mistakenly assumes a 50/50 split in the electorate when it comes to political preference.

[Zeitghost]

10. The response to Delta has me worried

If Newsome is forced to shut down the state in the next couple weeks, it's over.

[Initech]

11. No way in hell do I want Larry Elder as my governor!

A radio host who has no fucking clue how the minimum wage works? Or how forest fires are caused by climate change? That guy would make a better governor? You've got to be fucking kidding me! The stupid burns!

[IcyPeas]

12. He thinks the minimum wage should be $0.00

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article253231758.html

‘The ideal minimum wage is $0.00.’ Leading candidate to replace Newsom wants no requirement

California workers currently earn a minimum of $13 or $14 an hour, but Larry Elder says he’d get rid of a legal baseline altogether.

[onecaliberal]

14. That needs to be in an ad. It will be over for that guy.

[hookaleft]

15. We vote heavily by mail here in this state.........

Don't count us out.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

16. Yeah

I would think a likely voter model that pollsters try to create is harder in a vote by mail state where every voter automatically gets a ballot and all they have to do is fill it in and mail it, as opposed to actually having to make time to go to a voting precinct…So I think polls are using the enthused voters as “likely” voters, and the people more enthused support the recall…

[Johonny]

18. I believe they are mailing ballots out again

Newsom is gaming the system to get better turn out.

It's not clear to me that he won't win the second half of the recall if he loses the first. The GOP vote is split. There are 40 candidates but mostly conservatives while the Dems did a good job clearing the ballot for Newsom.

[moonscape]

17. A while back I was ridiculed for having

any concern about this recall. I’ve been feeling okay about it since it was moved up, everyone would get ballots, etc. Now this. Scary. The only thing that got me through until now was being in a safe state.

A Google came up with this cheery bit:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/shock-poll-shows-gavin-newsom-losing-recall-vote-by-double-digits/ar-AAMWSca

[ansible]

22. How are any of you surprised, have you seen California lately?

The situation here is awful!