Get ready my coastal friends

[malaise]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/08/04/hurricane-season-about-to-take-a-major-turn-for-the-worse-government-forecasters-say/?sh=3f61caa546f2&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news&cdlcid=5d127e951802c8c52435fdb8
Despite no new storms forming in more than a month, government forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are upping their outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season, in what could make for a frenetic next few weeks.
.

KEY FACTS
The NOAA forecast now calls for 15-21 named storms and 7-10 hurricanes, up from the May outlook calling for 13-20 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes.

The prediction for major hurricanes—Category 3 or higher—remains at 3-5.

Should the forecast pan out, activity is about to ramp up significantly from what had been a quiet period.
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[marble falls]

1. You be careful, too, my island friend!

[malaise]

4. We're overdue

Watching carefully - not worried about these two but there are many that haven't formed yet.

[marble falls]

5. I'll be watching for you, too.

[spanone]

2. K&R

[keithsw]

3. Ugh!

My wife and I have become very efficient at evacuating Fort Myers! Thanks, for the link

[Deuxcents]

6. Hi neighbor

Yep..always have eyes on Mother Nature.. we are fortunate here but never let your guard down.

[keithsw]

42. Hello!

Where are you located?

[Solly Mack]

7. Fuck it.

[malaise]

9. My thoughts exactly

[Solly Mack]

11. All we can do is prepare.

Not like I'm moving.

Still, I do appreciate the notice because I don't check as often as I should.

Thanks!

[RKP5637]

8. Thanks for always posting info like this!!! It's really helpful and a great reminder!!!

[lark]

10. Damn!!!

We will be going to Marathon in a week and a half. It's hubs birthday so the 3 of us (including our dog) are going to a very small resort and have a suite right on the water. We knew this was a possibility, and unless it's really bad we will deal. So we just watch for now and hope we get calm seas and not bad weather and a good get away.

[GulfCoast66]

29. Just make sure you get travel insurance.

We got run off a barrier island for 3 nights of our night day vacation. But travel insurance paid us $250 per day while we were gone so we stayed in a nice hotel and ate well.

[lark]

47. We've never gotten travel insurance, but you are right, this could be the time.

Can you recommend a good co, I have no idea about which is trustworthy vs. not.

[GulfCoast66]

51. My buddy did it. The rental company that rents the homes hooked him up.

So can’t help.

[lark]

52. Worth a try, thanks anyway.

[GulfCoast66]

53. I'm sure you will find something on a internet search.

[Ligyron]

41. That shit always threatens to strike while you're on vacation.

Like clockwork but stay home and nothing happens. It’s a conspiracy I tells ya!

What did you do for summer vacation little Johnny? Uh, I stayed home and helped my parents put up our shutters for no reason.

[FM123]

12. Yep, gettin ready....

fingers crossed and wishing you good luck in the islands too dear Malaise.

[Warpy]

13. The Pacific storms were completely suppressed last summer

by a heat dome over the southwest that sat there for at least seven weeks.

It was back this year, but farther to the north, so we're up to "J" in the Pacific, only a little behind where we usually are. Unfortunately, they're all heading west, none has meandered far enough north to give CA or AZ a break.

[malaise]

15. And it looks like the Eastern Pacific storms are all

fish storms so far

[GulfCoast66]

31. Yep. Those 2 out there now are already turning north.

We are ready here in Florida. But we always are.

After a while they just become a part of life like snow storms up north.

[keithsw]

43. The ONE thing

Florida is good at!

[CCExile]

14. Ha ha ha! I LAUGH at these hurricanes! I live high up on a ridge...

at the dizzying height of almost 28 feet above, and almost a full mile from, Corpus Christi Bay! Do your worst climate change! Hah ha ha! I'm ready! You can't touch me!

[wnylib]

16. Maybe the waters can't, but what about the winds?

[malaise]

17. What about the people living below?

Bangs head.

[wnylib]

20. I think they should move uphill

and shelter with him/her.

[malaise]

26. LOL

[Sympthsical]

33. I think the poster was being funny )

[CCExile]

46. Pfffft! Winds! Did Port Aransas or Rockport worry about winds?

Disruption of energy and supply lines? No! We live for that stuff! Hospitals already over capacity because we're only 43% vaccinated? Only a giggle. Wait, no internet for a week or two, and hordes of unvaccinated roaming the streets for ice and propane? OK, I'll evacuate to Austin. I may be a Texan, but I not crazy. I was tested.

[lark]

49. Don't get cocky!

You always have to be ready. Shit happens, things get worse than they've ever been and all of a sudden you are in the middle of a shit show.

I live in Jax FL and we've only been hit by a hurricane directly once in over 100 years, but if the winds are over 60 and rain is substantial, large trees come down, low places flood. and both of these can be devastating Power goes out, water can be undrinkable and roads can be unpassable. Stay safe and always be prepared.

[IronLionZion]

18. People don't have enough to worry about with COVID

now folks have to huddle together into hurricane shelters. Be safe out there. At least this president will do actual stuff to help instead of tossing paper towels.

[malaise]

22. Not yet but in a sort while

Now we get ready before the prices of the stuff we need are inflated

[wnylib]

19. I'm too far inland for direct hits

from Atlantic hurricanes, although superstorm Sandy was an exception with its hit on the Great Lakes. But we often do get heavy rains and flooding when a large storm moves up the coast as far as New England.

This year, summer has been strange. It is the rainiest one that I can remember, with heavy rain almost every day in July, causing frequent flash floods. At night, temps have often dropped to the 40s F. Most daytime temps this past week have been in the low to mid 70s F compared to the usual 80s for August.

Last summer was one of the hottest and dryest that I have seen. By contrast, this year is wet and chilly.

[Jon King]

21. In South Florida, we stay ready.

I have to say our power company FPL is amazing at storm readiness and response. All year long you see them replacing wooden power poles with concrete and hardening the grid.

We always keep the hurricane supplies up to date, have a whole house generator, metal shutters for all windows and doors. Its part of the deal here.

[malaise]

24. Same here

They surprise me every year

[bluecollar2]

35. Unless you're zoned agricultural

Never taken less than six weeks to get my power lines back up.

After Irma it wasn't until a Canadian crew out of Quebec showed up that my power was restored.

Hope this season leaves south dade alone.

[lark]

50. In NE FL, we have JEA instead of FPL.

There are still lots of above ground power lines in all the older areas, which are many. Newer areas all have the power lines buried. I don't think they are taking enough action to harden the infrastructure, although wooden power poles have been replaced with concrete ones on most major streets.

However JEA sounds so much better at responding than FPL. When our old neighbor was alive, we never went 24 hours without power, her family were old power players in Jax. and they still catered to her. After her death, we now wait several to three days. We've never been without power longer than that. JEA really mobilizes a fleet of trucks and they get to work immediately clearing the roads of downed trees so the other trucks can get in to repair the downed lines and exploded transformers.

I'm glad JEA didn't sell to FPL since it takes them that long!

[keithsw]

44. Absolutely right!

FPL is awesome after a storm! Kudos to them.

[Aviation Pro]

23. Both will be fish churners if anything.

The models from the South Florida Water Management District show guidance on the main threat as heading out to the Atlantic.



The second disturbance isn't being tracked at the moment.

[malaise]

25. The article with the prognosis for the season is more important than these two

although orange blob is the one to watch

[Aviation Pro]

38. One of the questions that almost never surfaces

Is why there is such a sudden uptick of named storms and one of the answers is the technology that allows the NHC to monitor environmental conditions to a far greater degree than at anytime in the history of tracking tropical cyclones. There is value to this even though a majority of these storms will remain well off shore because of the accumulation of data from doing so. However, if you simultaneously plot the number of major storms (> 2) that make landfall, I think you'll find that the number remains consistent.

The two articles below address this:

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/06/30/was-2020-a-record-breaking-hurricane-season-yes-but/

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/05/why-are-there-so-many-atlantic-named-storms-five-possible-explanations/

This, of course, does not diminish the rapid intensification seen in the CAT 4s and 5s of recent years and more importantly, the sustained time period that these monsters maintain this level. Without delving into all the minutiae, in the two decades of delivering WX instruction to pilots in S. Florida, I have never seen convection this strong breaking through the -80C level.

[malaise]

40. Thanks for these

[PJMcK]

27. Stay safe, malaise

I’m in NYC and we’re due for a storm. However, you’re in the line of fire!

Take care and prepare.

[malaise]

30. Thanks although we are second

Lots of islands lie between Africa and JA - we worry more about anything south of Barbados

[wyn borkins]

32. A Haiku Storm For(By) You

We are due for storm
You are in the line of fire
Take care and prepare

[Dreampuff]

28. Thank you for posting this!

We live inland far enough that we don't get Direct hits, but the winds and flooding and loss of electricity can also be very dangerous. As soon as September gets closer, we try to get prepared.

[Grammy23]

34. Comes with the territory of living on the coast.

Just like Californians live with earthquakes and wild fires, we live with hurricanes as a risk. We get lots of benefits and perks living where we do. Beautiful, sandy beaches, emerald colored water and lots of wildlife. It is a very pretty area to live. But the flip side is that our weather can turn violent and dangerous, especially during the summer and early fall. So we don’t bitch and moan. We prepare.

If you haven’t checked your hurricane stash, do it now. Think of what you’d need to take care of yourself all by yourself for 72 hours after a storm. Stock up on water, non-perishable food, prescription meds, batteries and alternative power sources if you lose electricity. Don’t wait until you know for certain that a storm is headed your way because you may not be able to get emergency supplies.

If you have neighbors, check in with them to find out what their plans are. If they are elderly, make sure they are prepared or are evacuating the area or going to a local shelter. Prepare for any pets you have. Many local shelters do not allow pets so keep that in mind. Some hotels suspend their No Pet policy in an emergency. So you should check to see if they will allow you to bring a pet with you if you are planning to evacuate to a hotel some distance inland.

There are many other rules about preparing for a storm but this covers the basics. Stay abreast of the situation by listening to the Hurricane Center advisories and your local weather reports. Do not spread rumors. You should get updates several times a day as storms can and do change courses, sometimes rapidly as they approach landfall. A 50 mile jog in one direction or another can increase your chances of property damage or decrease it. So if you stay, have a reliable way to get weather reports.

[malaise]

37. Secure the papers and valuable photos first first

Ensure that the required supplies are in secure places. Then pay attention to NOAA updates.

I worry more about the last two weeks of August, all of September and the first two weeks of October. That said hurricanes show up anytime around now.

[Jon King]

36. 2004 was a doozy!

We got hit by 4 hurricanes that year. Our daughter was born right between 2 of them in September 2004.

The power stayed out for 4 weeks back then, not a ton of fun with a newborn!

[malaise]

39. I remember Andrew

My sis and her family's townhouse was the only one without major damage in their complex.
She followed the knowledge we gained with Gilbert in 1988 - crack a few windows on the opposite side of the storm and save your roof (that only works if the place is well built).
I will never forget driving through Cuttler Ridge a few weeks later - homes turned into splinters like a tree after a lightning strike.

[DFW]

45. Looking out the window today, I think one slipped up the coast unnoticed

Here on the tip of Cape Cod, where we were supposed to have a last week of good beach weather, instead, we have had driving rain and howling cool wind all day.

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

48. Zzzzzzzzzzz, fish storms, meanwhile, my beach mornings have been lovely! lol