Former Bill Clinton advisor Doug Sosnik outlines headwinds Dems face in 2022

[brooklynite]

Axios

Doug Sosnik — senior adviser to the Brunswick Group, and White House political director for President Bill Clinton — is out with a new deck, shown first to Axios AM readers, warning his party how hard it'll be to hang onto its House and Senate majorities in next year's midterms.

The bottom line: "With only two exceptions (1998 and 2002), the party out of power has picked up seats in every midterm election since World War II," Sosnik writes.

The last five presidents have lost Senate and House majorities.

Despite President Biden's strong first six months in office, "there are some signs that his support is beginning to soften," Sosnik writes.

From his background data (which I've received a copy of)

Senate Races

Lean D: NH, NV, AZ, GA
Toss-Up: NC, PA, WI
Lean R: FL, OH

Governor Races

Lean D: MI, WI, VA, MD
Toss-Up: KS, PA, AZ
Lean R: FL, GA

[Deminpenn]

1. LOL

We don't even know who the eventual candidates for senater or governor will be in Pennsylvania yet.

[brooklynite]

2. That doesn't mean you can't set a baseline projection.

[Deminpenn]

3. Except these baseline projections are

based on "conventional wisdom". Additionally, the results of 2016 and 2020 are skewed because of Trump's unique ability to pull out not only his base of previously registered voters, but also to bring voters in from the far right, CT fringes. This won't be happening in 2022 as Trump won't be on the ballot and his unique ability to motive, activate and pull in these "unlikely" voters doesn't transfer to his minion candidates.

[brooklynite]

4. I'm gonna guess that Clinton's Political Director provides more than "conventional wisdom"

Which races would you rate differently?

[Deminpenn]

5. Sosnik's world was 30 years ago

Not privvy to any internal stuff, but what I hear consistently is just conventional wisdom spouted over and over. I don't think even one pollster accounts for Trump's unique hold on his voters and ability to draw out voters from the fringes. The projections are all based on how close the presidential vote is in each particular state. In 2016 and 2020, Trump being on the ballot skewed these data points.

I would not rate PA as a toss-up at all. Josh Shapiro is likely going to run for governor. He's won 2 statewide races for Atty Gen and got more votes than anyone in the state both times he ran. He's well known in eastern PA where the majority of the state's voters are. He has lead high profile investigations like the one into the catholic church child abuse coverup. He was front and center protecting our 2020 vote against all challenges. The prospective GOP candidates for governor could be described as a clown show of Trump cultists, clones and unknowns. In 2018, the wannabe-Trumper Scott Wagner got his clock cleaned by Wolf.

In the senate, my expectation is that Fetterman will win based on his several listening tours/town halls held statewide in many of the places politicians usually don't go like the small and rural counties. IIRC, research has shown that voters are much more likely to vote for someone they've met. The other Dem candidates don't or won't have this advantage. Lots of Rs, but my guess would be the race comes down to Bartos, who ran against Fetterman for lt gov and lost, and Parnell. I see Parnell as an Amy McGrath character, failed House candidate now trying for Senate. In politics, 2nd acts usally don't turn out well. Bartos is more like Toomey and will appeal to those same voters. His problem is he's unknown in western PA where Fetterman will clean up.