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Fri Aug 13, 2021, 12:46 PM

Redistricting Issues

Chuck Todd was just talking to Dave Wasserman about upcoming redistricting. Republicans have 164 districts they get to draw the maps for. Democrats only have 46. The rest are independent commissions or mixed.

Wasserman was saying Texas is likely to gain 2 seats, but due to the huge growth around Austin, San Antonio, and Houston, Republicans may have difficulty drawing districts in a way that completely screws over Dems, while protecting their incumbents. But they're going to try.

Colorado will likely gain 1 seat. Wasserman says it will likely be swingy. It's in the Denver area. He said it probably would have gone TFG in 2016, but Biden in 2020.

The big thing they talked about is the power New York has. Dems control New York, and while they're expected to lose 1 seat overall, they have the ability to eliminate 5 Republican districts.

I realize gerrymandering is bad, but as long as the Supreme Court and Congress refuse to stop it, I don't see how it's worth us shooting ourselves in the foot to not gerrymander blue states, while letting Republicans gerrymander red states.

I'm really worried that redistricting alone will give Republicans the House majority.

Any thoughts on how we can keep our majority? What are the chances you think New York will gerrymander out the Republicans to give us 5 more seats?

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Arrow 4 replies Author Time Post
Reply Redistricting Issues (Original post)
Marius25 Aug 2021 OP
Johnny2X2X Aug 2021 #1
lagomorph777 Aug 2021 #2
jimfields33 Aug 2021 #3
FBaggins Aug 2021 #4

Response to Marius25 (Original post)

Fri Aug 13, 2021, 12:49 PM

1. You can only jerrymander so much

Plus this census data they have to use for districting comes with some uncertainty built in to make jerrymandering harder.

It's all doom and gloom, but there are several states with independent commission for district lines now that will un jerrymander the states.

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Response to Marius25 (Original post)

Fri Aug 13, 2021, 12:52 PM

2. If we don't Gerrymander, we are unilaterally disarming.

The only way to get enough consensus to end Gerrymandering, is to do it better than the Reptilians. Then it will suddenly become their next big cause.

In Virginia, just after we flipped the entire state government blue, voters decided to hand over districting to an "independent" commission that leans Reptilian.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 13, 2021, 01:38 PM

3. Voters like independent groups doing the redistricting

If ever asked on a ballot, Id always vote yes.

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Response to Marius25 (Original post)

Fri Aug 13, 2021, 02:24 PM

4. NY uses a commission for redistricting

NY is losing one seat (down to 26)... and it's more likely to be a red seat than a blue one. But pick up five seats? Not a chance.

There's no way to go from 19-8 blue all the way to 24-2.

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