385,000 went to Lollapalooza, but it wasn't a COVID superspreader event

[Pluvious]

Dare we hope ?

Out of the 385,000 people who attended Lollapalooza July 29-Aug. 1, 203 cases were reported from the festival...

Around 88% of the festival’s attendees were vaccinated...

The Chicago festival had stringent protocols, as it required attendees to show proof of vaccination or of a negative COVID-19 test. Other major festivals, including Bonnaroo in Manchester, Tennessee, and Summerfest in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, have since followed Lolla’s lead in implementing similar rules.

Of the vaccinated attendees at Lollapalooza, only 0.0004% have tested positive for the virus, Arwardy said. She added that 0.0016% of unvaccinated people who attended have tested positive.

There have been no hospitalizations or deaths linked to Lollapalooza, the health expert said. People under 30 years old represented 79% of the positive cases, she added.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article253445374.html

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. 200+ cases already linked to Lollapalooza- how many equals a superspreader event?

[LisaL]

2. We also don't know all the cases, considering we aren't testing that much.

I doubt we tested everybody who attended. So who knows how many cases there actually is?

[secondwind]

3. Article says 88% attending were vaccinated.

[LisaL]

5. Australia would have locked up the whole city over 200 cases.

For US, it's no big deal, I guess.
But if each one of those 200 infects 5 people and so on...

[FarPoint]

4. My guess would be over 100 thousand ..

[MichMan]

7. Wonder how many others the 203 infected before they were diagnosed?

[LisaL]

8. Each person with delta infects 5-8 people on average.

Add to that, unless everybody who attended was tested, they have no way of knowing how many people actually got infected.

[Hoyt]

6. 88% of festival's attendees were vaccinated. That's good.

[Mr. Ected]

9. Wouldn't 88% immunization in a closed population set amount to herd immunity?

If 88% of the general population were vaccinated we would be celebrating it here.

[LisaL]

10. There is no herd immunity with delta.

"“I think we are in a situation here with this current variant where herd immunity is not a possibility because it still infects vaccinated individuals,” said Pollard, one of the lead researchers in the creation of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford vaccine."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/12/herd-immunity-is-mythical-with-the-covid-delta-variant-experts-say.html

[Mr. Ected]

11. So anything less than 100% immunization means the cycle will never end?

That's hardly reassuring.

[LisaL]

12. Even a 100% immunization won't stop delta, since it can infect vaccinated people.

[mucifer]

13. It's a success if very few vaxxed people get hospitalized

[SoonerPride]

14. Of the vaccinated attendees at Lollapalooza, only 0.0004% have tested positive for the virus

That is a soaring success.

It shows that with proper protocols life can return to some semblance of normalcy.

Vaccination requirements for gatherings obviously work.

[LisaL]

15. How many did they test?

That statement is meaningless since they didn't test everyone of them.

[SoonerPride]

16. Only those who needed a test. Thats how many.

If you have no symptoms then the amount of virus is so low that you are not shedding virus either.

It is a huge success and to say otherwise is sheer idiocy.

This clearly demonstrates efficacy of vaccines and stringent protocols.

We were told before the festival that it would be a huge super spreader event.

2 weeks later that is simply factually not the case.

Full stop.

[fescuerescue]

18. Yes but we have no way of knowing that

If they aren't testing them.

[SoonerPride]

22. So you just assume that really 300,000 people got covid and no one needed a test?

How do you figure?

They verified vaccination and/or negative covid pcr test prior to entry.

2 weeks later 0.00004% of 385,000 in attedance have tested + and those people could have gotten it ANYWHERE else in the entire world.

It is a huge success. Period.

[NickB79]

25. Asymptomatic cases can spread the virus, even in those vaccinated

So no, vaccinated asymptomatic individuals can clearly spread the virus. That was one of the key takeaways from the Pride Festival superspreader study the CDC released recently.

[Ms. Toad]

32. Full stop only if you ignore medical facts and time.

If you have no symptoms then the amount of virus is so low that you are not shedding virus either.

That is NOT accurate.

Asymptomatic people can infect others, and can more easly infect others with Delta because of the high viral load. And the viral load of vaccinated infected people is just as high as the viral load of unvaccinated infected people.

A superspreader event does not stop at the first transmission. 203 were infected. WE don't yet know how many hospitalizations or deaths there may be, since those typically take more than 2 weeks from infection. The R0 of Delta is estimated to be 8-9, so if Delta works the way the R0 indicates, those 203 will infect roughly 1600-1800 others within the next 2 weeks or so.

It is simply too soon to tell - so a semicolon, at best. Not a full stop.

[SoonerPride]

33. Then stay home.

I am willing to live with a 0.00004% risk factor to be among 385,000 people.

[Ms. Toad]

37. Acknowledging facts does not mean stay home.

It means recognizing the risk, taking the precautions necessary to stay safe (including universal masking), and encouraging others to do so as well.

I have been teaching in person for more than a year, and taught 93 students for 4 of the last 5 days (with 30 more tomorrow).

I'm not staying home - BUT - I recognize how easily transmitted (and how dangerous) delta is, and take steps to stay safe - unlike way too many fools who merely want to go out and pretend COVID no longer exists.

[LanternWaste]

40. Moving the goalposts doesn't make your premise any more valid.

[ShazzieB]

39. They tested every one of them who wasn't vaccinated.

[fescuerescue]

17. I'm really surprised that a Blue state would allow that.

I was hearing about Lolpooza, but I thought it was something Texas.

[LisaL]

19. They had enough room in the hospital.

I am not kidding, that seem to have been the reasoning.

[NickB79]

20. Sturgis 2020 "only" had 463 primary cases reported out of a similar crowd size

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/cdc-study-2020-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-covid-19/89-520a6bf4-b5ff-47bf-83a2-b5599d3a8b95

But, subsequent studies estimated that those cases went on to seed 250,000 (!) infections throughout the nation over the next few months.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/sturgis-rally-may-have-caused-250-000-new-coronavirus-cases-n1239577

I wouldn't get too excited about Lollapalooza just yet.

[LisaL]

21. Exactly.

They are also making ridiculous statements-considering they haven't tested everybody who attended, claim that only 203 got infected is ridiculous.
And never mind everyone infected with delta infects 5-8 people on average.

[SoonerPride]

24. So never leave your house.

I am getting back to living.

[LisaL]

27. You be you.

[SoonerPride]

34. Bye

Ignore on forever. Toodles.

[LisaL]

36. The feeling is mutual.

NT

[greenjar_01]

23. Watching the people who insisted this would be a catastrophe refuse to admit that it wasn't

is really sad and demoralizing.

You were wrong. The vaccines are remarkably effective.

There's been no Chicago surge or Chicagoland surge, and the incidence of infection was low. It's OK to be vaccinated outside in groups, including concerts, baseball games, and music festivals.

For goodness sake, it seems like some of you just enjoy the drama of the worst result. This was a good result. The plan to mitigate and reduce risk was well conceived and it worked. It's OK to admit you were wrong, and that your pessimism was unfounded, and that it's possible for us to get back to something like normal. It's OK for us to win on this one, for goodness sake.

Almost 400,000 attended. Most did the right thing and were vaccinated. We have evidence of 203 infections, some of which were brought there. That's .5%. It's OK to win. It's OK. We can be happy. Cheer the fuck up for once.

[LisaL]

26. Yea, we enjoy drama.

Never mind US is averaging over 100,000 infections per day. And hospitals are getting overwhelmed. Everything is totally fine.

[greenjar_01]

28. Not in Chicago

Hospitalizations are low, cases have flattened after the delta surge (which began before Lolla), deaths are down, positiivity is less than 4%, up slightly.

Lollapalooza wasn't a surge or super spreader event because most were vaccinated. Zero deaths or hospitalizations from even the 203. Zero.

Enjoy a good result instead of griping for once. In this case, you can be happy.

[LisaL]

30. Cases in Chicago are increasing.

"Arwady's update on Thursday came at a time when the average daily number of new cases in Chicago is up to 364 per day - a 39% increase over the previous week."

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/203-confirmed-covid-cases-tied-to-lollapalooza-chicagos-top-doctor-says/2588834/

[greenjar_01]

31. Delta surge in Chicago started in early July, about 4 weeks before Lollapalooza

The rate of increase has slowed and flattened.

https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/covid-dashboard.html

Dive in!

[Ms. Toad]

35. You do recognize that there actually isn't any flattening at the link you provided, right? n/t

[ansible]

41. Nothing short of Australia-tier lockdowns and enforcement will make some happy here

[Ms. Toad]

29. Way too soon to tell that.

It was about 3 weeks before Provincetown was declared a superspreader.

As to Lollapalooza, you now have 200 or so. So far. Each one is likely to spread it to 8 or 9 others in the next week or so (so 1600-1800), based on COVID's R0, and they will spread it to others, and so on.

It is extremely unlikely that there would be deaths within 2 weeks of infection, and uncommon for there to be hospitalizations.

[ShazzieB]

38. I would like to draw everyone's attention to some things in the article.

"Around 88% of the festival’s attendees were vaccinated..."

"The Chicago festival had stringent protocols, as it required attendees to show proof of vaccination or of a negative COVID-19 test."

Quote from Chicago Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady: “We would have seen a surge if we were going to see a surge at this point.”

I get the feeling that a lot of posters are overlooking and/or discounting these points. Chicago is a very blue city that has been very conscientious about covid protocols from the start, located in a blue state that has been very conscientious about covid protocols from the start. It is not some Trump worshipping, maskhole infested, antivaxx hellhole. (There are some pockets of that in the state, but Chicago is not one of them.) We had a statewide mask mandate for about 15 months. (Some might argue that it should never have been lifted, but that's a whole separate conversation.) We have a high vaccinaction rate. Chicago (like Illinois as a whole) is a place that has taken covid seriously from the getgo.

Would calling off Lollapalooza this year have been the most prudent thing to do? Sure. Holding it was a calculated risk. But the decision to do so was not made in a cavalier manner. It was done with full recognition of the risks and an eye to keeping those risks as low as possible. And it has proved NOT to be a superspreader event, showing what a difference it can make when sensible rules are put in place and carefully followed.

Personally, I'd call it a win.