From The BBC: Africa's jihadists: What Taliban takeover of Afghanistan means(.)

[abqtommy]

As Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, Islamist groups waging insurgencies in Africa were quick to celebrate.

"God is great," a media outlet linked to Somalia's al-Shabab wrote in response to the takeover.

Elsewhere, the leader of al-Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) used his first public message since 2019 to congratulate the Taliban.

"We are winning," Iyad Ag Ghaly said, drawing comparisons between the withdrawal of foreign troops in Afghanistan and France's decision to reduce its military presence in West Africa's Sahel region.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58279439

There's a lot more text and some photos at the link. This is a long and worthwhile read, in my
opinion.

[Igel]

1. Yup.

In the '70s after the US "lost" in Vietnam all sorts of insurgencies, often with Soviet help (sometimes just money, sometimes unacknowledged advisors, sometimes with Cuban surrogates or funneling of money and munitions through Cuba or simply smuggled) broke out. Most of those without Soviet help didn't get far.

Most of those with Soviet help went on for a while, and some won their fight.

Why the difference? The largest sponsor of N. Vietnam in the late '60s and later was the USSR. The N. Vietnamese victory was a win for the USSR and showed that it could win the ideological battle of spreading "scientific communism" to other countries. Made rather a mess of some parts of the world for a while.

While ISIS is condemning the Taliban for religious impurity and laxity, most other groups seem to be taking heart that they can win. Will this victory cause more groups to return to the fray or will we find other countries and areas suddenly "frayed".

It's worth noting that the African jihadi movements share something important with Pakistan's NW territories (which blend nearly borderlessly with Afghanistan's Pakhtun areas): polio outbreaks. And once squashed in Africa, 6 or 12 months later, there are more cases that spring up in Africa, and genetic sequencing points back to Pakistan. Of course, it *might* point to SE Afghanistan as well, but since nobody's much on the ground there monitoring public health and sequencing DNA, and since it's really the same population and small point-mutations in the entire area, we just say "Pakistan." But we don't mean the Balochi or Sindh when we say that.

[abqtommy]

2. Thanks for your insight. Yes, Jihad and polio, it's never gonna end.

Also see this re:ISIS https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215766106