First Covid Deaths Were Earlier Than Thought

[applegrove]

First Covid Deaths Were Earlier Than Thought

August 22, 2021 at 10:33 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 96 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2021/08/22/first-covid-deaths-were-earlier-than-thought/

"SNIP.......

San Jose Mercury News: “In a significant twist that could reshape our understanding of the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, death records now indicate the first COVID-related deaths in California and across the country occurred in January 2020, weeks earlier than originally thought and before officials knew the virus was circulating here.”

“A half dozen death certificates from that month in six different states — California, Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Oklahoma and Wisconsin — have been quietly amended to list COVID-19 as a contributing factor, suggesting the virus’s deadly path quickly reached far beyond coastal regions that were the country’s early known hotspots.”

.......SNIP"

[oldtime dfl_er]

1. Anecdotally

I know of several people who were seriously sick with some form of flu or something in November 2019. My partner had a very powerful "flu" in December and we started masking in early Feb of 2020. I firmly believe the virus was here at that time.

[applegrove]

2. So crazy. That means even if we had stopped travel as soon as the pandemic was first recognized

it was too late. We are at the mercy of wet markets or whatever.

[WHITT]

5. No 'Wet Markets' In Italy

Remember, they matched the DNA of the strain that infected New York as originating in Europe.

[applegrove]

6. It is so confusing.

[WHITT]

8. Indeed

Hence the bumper-sticker politics, eh?

[applegrove]

9. What month was it Italy said they had their first case? I can't remember.

Was it August 2019?

[WHITT]

17. Something Like That

Tests indicated mid Sept, so walk that back 2-3 weeks for infection.

[WarGamer]

49. Correction. The area of Italy with the first reports hosts Chinese textile workers...

With daily flights from Wuhan province.

I'd link to it but I'm sure you've read that too.

[WHITT]

50. Except

the cases in Italy predated those in China, not the other way around.

[WarGamer]

73. So you're actually saying...

C19 originated in Italy?

I hadn't heard that except on Chinese National News Networks.

[WHITT]

76. Afraid Not

[wnylib]

16. The wet market origin was an early

hypothesis, but most likely the virus originated elsewhere in China and spread quickly at a Wuhan market where people interacted in close proximity.

[WHITT]

51. No

there were cases in Italy BEFORE there were any in China. 'Wuhan' is merely subterfuge.

[wnylib]

56. Subterfuge?? Why would there be

subterfuge about the location of the origin of the virus?

[WHITT]

57. You Omitted The Sarcasm Emoji

[wnylib]

58. No I didn't. Straight question.

Why would you use the word subterfuge?

[WHITT]

63. Who

was blaming everything under the sun on China?

From his complete clueless bungling of trade and tariffs which backfired and resulted in the largest number of farm bankruptcies since the Repub global financial crash more than a dozen years ago, to alleged currency manipulation which he had backwards, to 5G technology which cost U.S. and British! consumers billions and will deprive them of widespread 5G for years, and on and on and on.

[wnylib]

64. But TFG is not the one who first

identified covid with Wuhan. That came from the health community. He merely used the health community's belief that Wuhan (or someplace near there) was covid ground zero to promote his hate speech.

It is not firmly established that the virus was in Italy before it was in China. Some IgM antibodies suggest the possibility, but further testing of virus protein spikes, plus indications of people with clinical symptoms are necessary to confirm that covid was in Italy in September, 2019.

Even if that gets confirmed, it does not establish that the virus originated in Italy. There is frequent travel and business between China and Italy. The virus could have been in China that far back and picked up by Italians in China or vice versa.

It's possible that the original virus was less contagious and less lethal, allowing it to spread without detection until it mutated to a form that spread faster and caused more serious symptoms. So, given the amount of world travel before the pandemic, it could have been circulating in a milder form in many countries before it was recognized.

[WHITT]

66. Nope

That came from the health community

How could it come from the "health community", when there isn't a SHRED of evidence to support the 'Wuhan' ptopaganda?

It is not firmly established that the virus was in Italy before it was in China

Of course it is.

it does not establish that the virus originated in Italy

And WHO claimed it "originated in Italy"?

The virus could have been in China that far back and picked up by Italians in China or vice versa.

ZERO evidence of that, all evidence to the opposite, not to mention it doesn't work that way.

[wnylib]

68. Wuhan "propaganda"? Get real.

The first world recognition of covid came from the massive outbreak in Wuhan. The first SARS COV 2 genome was sequenced in China and then given to scientists around the world. Without that, the mRNA vaccines could not have been developed. Viral RNA can be traced through its mutations. That's how we distinguish between the delta, alpha, and gamma variations. Numerous other mutations within those lines and outside of them occur, which also can be traced.

You are apparently suggesting that the virus did not originate in Wuhan or in China. That might be the case even though it is more likely, from its genome, that it did. Whether or not it escaped from a lab or developed in the wild is still being investigated and a report on the results is due very soon now. It is also possible that it developed in the wild and got accidentally carried into a lab on materials that were collected for lab study. There was an excellent NPR interview with a virologist a few weeks ago that explained the various possibilities.

But to take it further to the point of saying that a Wuhan origin is only "propaganda" by TFG is conspiracy theater territory. If I wanted to engage in conspiracy theories about covid, I would just talk to a Magat.

[WHITT]

69. All The Way Real

The first world recognition of covid came from the massive outbreak in Wuhan.

And?

That's merely evidence of an outbreak. Nothing more.

The first SARS COV 2 genome was sequenced in China and then given to scientists around the world. Without that, the mRNA vaccines could not have been developed.

Yep.

And I was the one that first posted that in these forums.

Viral RNA can be traced through its mutations. That's how we distinguish between the delta, alpha, and gamma variations. Numerous other mutations within those lines and outside of them occur, which also can be traced.

And?

That's very old news. It's how they knew 18 months ago the strain that infected New York came from Europe, not China.

You are apparently suggesting that the virus did not originate in Wuhan or in China.

I'm "suggesting" anything, it flat-out chronologically could NOT have originated "in Wuhan or in China".

That might be the case even though it is more likely, from its genome, that it did.

No, it's not.

But to take it further to the point of saying that a Wuhan origin is only "propaganda" by TFG is conspiracy theater territory.

No, you have it backwards. The 'stand on your head and rub your tummy' conspiracy theory is the Wuhan propaganda.

[spanone]

29. We WERE at the mercy of a 'president' who knew how deadly it was very early in the year....

and had no intention of alerting the public.

[Tree Lady]

11. I caught something end of November 2019

In CA for Thanksgiving so was around 20 people who had traveled from all over the state and Seattle and was sick for over 6 weeks, very sick bad cough could barely breathe at times, fever, sick to stomach, couldn't get out of bed for over a week twice during that time.

I have never had any flu like that and I got my flu shot.

I was sick till middle of Jan 2020, then few months later they tell us of covid.

I have been wondering ever since if I had it.

[Botany]

14. I swear to God I think I had it from late Dec. 2019 to the end of Jan. 2020 in Columbus, OH

A dry cough, a low grade fever, and real fatigue.

[roamer65]

70. Same here.

[dflprincess]

79. First week of January 2020 for me

I thought I had the worst cold I'd ever had. The cough & fatigue lasted a few weeks.

January 2021 I had an extremely mild case of Covid. Losing taste and smell is the only reason I got tested.

[wnylib]

18. Have you asked your medical provider

for an antibody test?

[róisín_dubh]

54. Probably a bit late now.

I was sicker than I'd ever been in my life after returning from London and New York in December19/January20. Horrendous cough that made me feel like I had broken ribs, high fever for a day or two (then low grade), and fatigue. The cough and fatigue lingered for weeks.
My mom was sicker than she'd ever been in HER life while visiting me in Paris and London in November19.

I was antibody tested in July20, negative.

As an aside, I got vaccinated in March and caught what was probably Delta Covid in July. That was mild compared to how sick I'd been in January of 2020.

[wnylib]

59. It would be too late now because you

should have antibodies from the vaccine. Since your test in 2020, before there were vaccines, was negative, it looks like you had some other nasty virus but not covid.

[marble falls]

30. I actually got my flu shot Monday before Thanksgiving and by the evening was sick ...

... I've never passed out from coughing until whatever that was!

[ProfessorGAC]

72. December For Me

A walloping case of bronchitis that came upon very suddenly, about a week before Christmas.
On, Saturday I was fine. By Monday, I could not stop coughing & it was a wholly unproductive hack. Minor fever, but little upper respiratory effect.
I don't know it was COVID, of course, but I've had bronchitis before and this was the worst I've had.
Might just be a coincidence, but I think suspicion is reasonable.

[William Seger]

15. The first identified case was someone who had no contact with anyone from China

That pretty much implies that it must have been spreading well before it was first identified.

[wnylib]

20. Yup. Not surprising.

It takes several cases to see a distinct cluster of symptoms as significant and new. People identify things in terms of what they already know. So in the beginning, a serious case of flu like symptoms with excessive difficulty breathing was thought to be pneumonia.

[Lochloosa]

21. Thanksgiving eve for me. I had chills, headache, cough etc.

Went to bed at 8 thinking was going to be there a while with the flu. Was fine the next morning. Took about 3 weeks to get rid of the cough.

Told the wife that was the weirdest flu kve ever had.

[marble falls]

28. We had it at the same time!

[phylny]

22. My 92-year-old father lived on Long Island and was deathly ill at the end of January, 2020.

Low pulse-ox, coughing, kidney involvement, but no fever or flu. Long story, but he was hospitalized for a week, was in rehab for a month, and he never regained his strength - he said his legs felt like two rubber bands with no strength. Doctors said they had "never seen a chest x-ray like this." He died in January of this year, pissed off that he declined so quickly. We are convinced he had Covid.

[marble falls]

27. I was one, only thing they could say was "it's not flu, it seems like a rhinovirus of some type" ...

... When I coughed, I'd pass out. It came up suddenly, in the morning I was fine, by night I was sick. Went to the hospital after five days and was in the hospital for a week, on oxygen. Last week of Nov 2019, first week of Dec.

[Baitball Blogger]

33. I agree with you.

My son-in-law brought down a very bad flu from New York in December 2019. My daughter and I caught it. I coughed my lungs out for three weeks. Even coughed up a plug. (TMI) We went skiing in late January 2020 and I was shocked how tiring it was just to walk in ski boots. I would have to stop every 100 steps or so to catch my breath.

[lagomorph777]

43. We had some shocking and sudden "flu" deaths around here in the Fall of 2019.

Northern VA. Pneumonia came on suddenly and killed a teenage girl and some others; typically in a day or two.

[smirkymonkey]

74. I was one of those people. It hit me right after T-giving. Worst cold/flu I have ever had.

The worst part of it was the chest congestion, because I could not cough it up and my body was just heaving trying to expel whatever was filling my lungs to the point where I was vomiting all the time (from gagging) and I pulled a muscle in my rib cage from the force of it.

I took everything I could and used moist heat with Vicks just to loosen things up a bit, but I was so exhausted by the whole thing. It felt like it took over my body and there was nothing I could do about it. We had not heard about Covid at the time, so I was not too alarmed at this point. I thought it was just a really bad case of the flu or pneumonia and by the time I felt better enough to go and see a doctor (doesn't make sense, I know), there was no more fever and my lungs sounded ok enough to them, so they just gave me the usual flu advice.

[brewens]

3. It could have come from a lot of places and earlier than anyone thought. Some remote

village somewhere. Someone goes in and out of there and it makes it's way to Wuhan and who knows where else about the same time.

[flamingdem]

4. I received notice that an old friend died in Alabama

of a "sudden illness" December 2020. I noticed that his mom passed 10 days before him of the same. At the time I thought.. hmm Covid but no it was too soon.. Perhaps this puts the pieces together. It might give some kind of closure to people, it does to me.

[applegrove]

7. Oh that is sad.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

19. Presumably you mean Dec. 2019? nt

[Baitball Blogger]

34. +1

[flamingdem]

40. Yes, that's right.

I'm losing track of the years as the pandemic drags on!

[Mad_Machine76]

55. I had a friend in Florida

with a history of respiratory issues passed away suddenly in Feb 2020. It was not diagnosed as such then but I have a strong suspicion it may have been Covid.

[zuul]

10. My nephew traveled to Ireland in January 2020.

Returned home to Denver very sick with a dry cough, then his entire family fell ill. His dad, my brother, is a doctor and he thinks they had Covid in January.

[NJCher]

12. The fall before covid

There was a severe flu variant. I had my flu shot but it didn’t cover this particular variant. It went on for months.

It wasn’t Covid though, because no breathing problems.

Later I read about this variant causing illness in many people. I was miserable for months with this thing and had to seek medical care.

[JoanofArgh]

13. 3 or 4 years ago, there was a new flu variant going

around that the shot didn’t cover. I caught it and had a bad cough for about 3 weeks.

This past January I caught COVID before I was eligible for vaccination and the illnesses are very different. COVID was the weirdest thing I’ve had in my entire life and I don’t want it anywhere near me again.

[mopinko]

23. yeah, i know ppl who thought they had it.

you can get tested now to see if it was.

[NJCher]

25. Even if you have

Been vaccinated?

I really would like to know for sure.

[mopinko]

26. yeah, that's a good question.

thought of that after i posted. they might be able to tell, but i dont know.
i mean, it was a way different strain than we are seeing now. a matter of if they test for that.

[Lochloosa]

32. See my reply below.

[Lochloosa]

31. You can test positive for antibodies after receiving the vaccine even if you did not have Covid.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/safety-communications/antibody-testing-not-currently-recommended-assess-immunity-after-covid-19-vaccination-fda-safety

[NJCher]

38. OK, thanks, looks like it would

be a fruitless endeavor.

I went back and checked my medical records. I actually had this thing for six months. It would not go away and I did take care of myself. Everyone in the household had it. It was brought home through NYC commuting, I'm quite certain.

[mopinko]

24. if you think you may have had it, get tested.

you can know for sure if you've already had it.
i was sick in jan, 19. thought it could have been, but the test said not.

[hamsterjill]

35. So help me...

Famous last words of course…

But I was working for a company in December, 2019 and had a real bitch of a supervisor. Crazy, crazy ass Evangelical.

She got sick and was really ill. But insisted on coming to work. She said she had been tested for the flu, but I didn’t think she had ever actually gone to the doctor. She got better for a few days and then got much worse. So help me, she had COVID.

I had fever and chills for one 24-hour period and then recovered over a matter of days. Fast forward a few weeks and I was laid off. Thankfully!!!

THEN, I learn that another gentleman in the office had been diagnosed with COVID officially right at the time I was let go. No one bothered to tell me; I found out through media reports because he recovered and began a campaign of donating his plasma. His efforts were documented in local media.

The crazy supervisor was involved with missionaries in her church and I’m betting she had contact with some who had traveled and brought it with them.

I’ll never know for sure, of course.

[NJCher]

37. what an outrage

incredible that you had to learn from media reports, esp'ly back at that time.

I always hated these idiots who insisted on coming to the office, even though they were sick. They thought they were heroes when they were really just thoughtless and who have an overblown sense of their own importance.

I wish I'd known about masks way back when I was forced to work with such fools.

[hamsterjill]

41. Oh, me too!

This woman was a piece of work!!! She would have dragged herself to the office on her death bed to show her loyalty. It was ridiculous. Even her own boss was telling her to stay home. Over exaggerated ego.

All the while exclaiming what a good Christian she was. Well, I (personally) am a believer but I’ve got to tell you - this woman did not give a shit about anyone who didn’t think like she did. Big Trumper! If you were not one (and she knew I was not), she had no use for you.

I feel like they had an obligation, and if not obligation, at least a courtesy, of notifying me that I might have been exposed. But nothing.

Best exit from a job ever!

[Hekate]

45. I knew a woman who wiped down her desk phone with alcohol every morning...

The folks in her office thought she was kinda neurotic, but I completely understood. I had never in my life gotten strep throat until our own Typhoid Mary infected my department — I mean, my little sister often had strep and we shared a bedroom and I never caught strep.

But the gal who came to work sick because she was such a hero gave it to everyone.

[lapfog_1]

36. found in sewage samples in Spain in MARCH 2019

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science/coronavirus-traces-found-in-march-2019-sewage-sample-spanish-study-shows-idUSKBN23X2HQ

every month samples were taken from a sewage treatment plant in Spain an frozen... they decided to track the virus backwards in time and found DNA from the virus as far back as March 2019.

To date I have not seen that this study was contaminated or otherwise debunked.

[WHITT]

52. The Evidence Is Stacking Up

that it likely originated somewhere in Europe.

[roamer65]

71. I don't think it started in China.

It may have mutated in China, but I don’t think it started there.

The Chinese watch viral things like a hawk, due to SARS-CoV-1.

I think this virus set off the alarms in China, then their government tried to repress it out of fear for blame for it.

[ecstatic]

61. So the virus has been morphing all this time

into a more contagious, more deadly disease.

[BannonsLiver]

39. I flew home from London Jan 19, 2020

On the flight home the couple behind me who were in their 60s were returning from a month in Italy, based on my eavesdropping. I was interested because my wife and I were in Italy in October 2019.

Both had severe coughs. The male seemed so bad I was thinking he wasn’t going to be able to stay on the flight. I texted my wife as we were waiting to take off that I’ll probably have the flu now.

[Hekate]

42. Airports, airplanes. Disease can travel faster than you even know it. nt

[cadoman]

44. would love to learn more about how a death certificate is amended so long after

Is it by re-examining symptoms? Digging up the body? Are these special cases where the body happens to still be kept in refrigeration? So many questions...

[WhiteTara]

47. that is a good question

Would it be worth it to exhume a body filled with formaldehyde? Would there be viable tissue to even test?

Welcome to DU, btw! Let us know if you find out the answer to the question.

[cadoman]

75. thanks for the welcome -- I spent some time thinking it over and have some ideas

So firstly we need a motivation. WHO would want to contest a COVID death? The family of the victim? Likely not. At least I can't think of any motivation on their behalf. I would expect things like suicide to be contested, but not dying of COVID.

Insurance companies? Maybe! What if the insurer can move their expenses off to the government due to some sort of COVID grant? They would definitely have the financial motivation if some patient came in and racked up tens or hundreds of thousands on a ventilator.

Hospitals? Maybe! Again, there are grants for handling COVID patients. Maybe hospitals are looking back for extra cash in those early COVID deaths.

So to contest the cause of death, all you really need is a physician willing to contest or update the cause of death. If I'm a hospital director, I'm probably thinking, why not hire a doctor to go through all my hospital deaths in those early months, review the symptoms, and get some of them changed to COVID? Each one that doctor manages to change can be thousands of dollars in grant money for the hospital.

https://legalbeagle.com/7623463-contest-reason-death-certificate.html

I'd appreciate hearing your feedback on my analysis! And it'd be cool if anyone involved in hospital administration might chime in.

[cadoman]

83. FEMA funeral assistance is another very real possibility

It sounds crass but if I thought a relative might have died from it and there was as much as $9k per death on the table, I would ask the hospital to investigate. Both parties would benefit.

https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_covid-19-funeral-assistance-interim-policy-version-2_06-29-2021.pdf

"Death certificates indicating the death "may have been caused
by" or "was likely a result of COVID-19” or “COVID-19 like
symptoms” and similar phrases that indicate a high likelihood of
COVID-19 are considered sufficient attribution."

"An applicant may receive Funeral Assistance for actual funeral costs up to $9,000
for each COVID-19 related funeral for which they are responsible and that
occurred in an area covered by a COVID-19 disaster declaration including
Individual Assistance."

[Mariana]

62. There may be preserved blood samples, x-rays, etc. from those people

that could help with the diagnosis. It's an interesting question.

[WhiteTara]

46. We were infected in mid December by someone who had just

come in from Malaysia after spending time with family from Wuhan China. He arrived at our house saying he started feeling unwell after being back in the states after 10 days from leaving his family.

I didn't spend as much time with him so I didn't get the viral load my partner did. I was sick for about a week, mostly stomach aches and diarrhea. Mr. T was so sick and kept saying it was like a band tightening around his chest. Because he uses a Bi-pap he didn't die. He went to the dr 3 times and they tested him for flu and he tested negative each time. They gave him powerful antibiotics that kept him from getting pneumonia and he was in bed for almost 3 weeks. After he started to feel better he would move around and do things and then immediately relapse. It took him several months to really feel better.

I'll bet that the deaths were even earlier than January. The same traveler who came to our house spent time in town at restaurants, shops and a hotel. There was a wave of sickness before Christmas here.

[JesterCS]

48. i had it February 2020

could barely breathe and urgent care thought i had pneumonia it was so bad.

edit: I live near Cincinnati, Ohio

[WHITT]

53. BTW

the vast majority of the early cases were asymptomatic, the worst seeming like a minor cold, so anyone having more severe symptoms, it likely wasn't covid.

[oldtime dfl_er]

65. Source?

would like to know where that info came from. Thanks.

[WHITT]

67. Italian Scientists

[oldtime dfl_er]

77. Not a source

.

[WHITT]

78. Hey

You asked "where that info came from", and I told you.

Now, if you want the specifics, you can go here:

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-timing/researchers-find-coronavirus-was-circulating-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-idUSKBN27W1J2

[Ani Yun Wiya]

80. Have you seen this

SARSCOV2 in sewage in Brazil in November of 2019
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140731v1

[WHITT]

81. Yep

And found in sewage in Spain even earlier.

[oldtime dfl_er]

82. Thanks

I see where it says there were four cases that were positive for antibodies in October.

[ecstatic]

60. Wow. So many decisions were made without that information

I was traveling /flying all over the country during that time. I can only assume I had an asymptomatic case. Everything happens for a reason, I guess