The Sturgis Variant

[kpete]

[Baitball Blogger]

1. Will we have one for Alabama because of the Trump rally?

[OnlinePoker]

2. Or a New York variant for the concert in the park. n/t

[Baitball Blogger]

3. Was that where Bruce Springsteen played?

[OnlinePoker]

4. I know he was scheduled. I don't know if he played.

It was stopped in the middle of the Barry Manilow set due to weather.

[Baitball Blogger]

5. I have a friend who was in NY this last weekend and she had seen Bruce.

I hope she makes it through without contacting Covid. She is a bright progressive, but her job puts her in the thick of right-wingers and she already caught Covid once from an indoor banquet that was job related. She has also picked up two other respiratory viruses just from the extensive traveling she has to do. Again, job related.

She's been so careful outside of the demands that her job creates for her. Vaccinated and wears masks. So I was very surprised to hear that she went to see Bruce in NY this last weekend. I know she was just so tired of quarantining, she felt like she needed to connect with "normal" if just for a day.

[babylonsister]

21. The concert was called because of rain midway

through Mandy by Barry Manilow.

afaik Springsteen never performed, at least I didn't see him.

[Baitball Blogger]

31. He must be on Broadway?

[DemocraticPatriot]

37. So they didn't "make it through the rain" ??

[MLAA]

19. It is certainly possible, though all attendees had to show proof of vaccination

Though I would not have gone even with that requirement.

[ejbr]

22. + 1

And they looked miserable with their yellow fans to combat the heat and humidity and from being crammed together, THEN they got rained on. Not a good time at all as far as I'm concerned.

[ejbr]

23. + 1

And they looked miserable with their yellow fans to combat the heat and humidity and from being crammed together, THEN they got rained on. Not a good time at all as far as I'm concerned.

[GusBob]

6. 200% of what?

I suck at math but according to Worldofmeters, SD is 41 in number of total cases and current graphs are flat or just a blip

[House of Roberts]

8. SD is 46th by population.

Total cases is a misleading number, since what is relevant is cases since Delta became prominent.

[llmart]

9. Don't a lot of those riders come from other states also?

And wouldn't they be counted in their home state instead of S. Dak.?

[certainot]

25. yeah, for example you can see the increase along the corridor through

montana, wyoming, colorado, NM, texas

[AllyCat]

12. 200% increase in number of cases.

So the total is going to look like not much. When you look at the 7 and then 14 day averages, you get a bigger picture of what is happening there. I’ve actually been using NYT lately for those numbers because Worldometers has so many states not reporting on the weekends.

[Ms. Toad]

13. 200% increase over the number of cases on August 6.

Typically they use a rolling 7-day average, but the caption doesn't indicate whether it is a snapshot or an average.

According to worldometers, on August 6 there were roughly 123 cases. On august 20, there were 304. That's a 247% increase.

According to the New York Times dashboard, the 7-day average on August 6 was 54. The 7-day average on August 20 was 221. That's a 409% increase.

With numbers that small, getting an accurate percentage increase is difficult, since each additional case makes a significant % change.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

14. That's been my thought...

They could have gone from 3 to 10 cases and it would be a 230% increase...

[MLAA]

20. Looking at the new cases by day there was certainly a bump up in SD.

The longer trend in SD will not reflect the Sturgis death party because the attendees will all have returned to their home states taking death and destruction with them.

[SweetieD]

7. Alabama and Florida must be fudging their numbers. Covid is raging there.

[Brother Buzz]

10. That, or Covid is so rampant in these states, the percent changes don't reflect squat

Believe it, Covid is still raging there.

[monkeyman1]

11. both states have 2 clown's running the state !

[Ms. Toad]

15. Definitely is still raging in both places,

But based on both Worldometers and New York Times dashboards, Alabama is raging slightly less this week than last, and Florida has leveled off (according to Worldometers) and is dipping (according to the NY Times).

[wnylib]

27. Florida is dipping - so they've

reached a saturation point and have run out of people to infect?

(just being facetious)

[Ms. Toad]

29. Florida also reports multiple days in a single day.

So that may influence the curve if they start reporting more than 7 days in a single dump.

[wnylib]

30. My western NY county does that, too.

The county health board dashboard reports figures daily for Monday through Thursday, on the following day for each one. Then on Monday morning, it reports figures for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in one lump.

But even accounting for the 3 day lump, yesterday's report for the weekend was so bad that it threw me into shock for a few moments as I stared at the screen. It also knocked us up from the substantial category to high. Today's numbers are also terrible. If I divide the 3 day lump by 3, today's numbers are equal to the average for one day of the 3 day lump.

Less than half of the county is vaccinated. Nobody wears masks except CVS employees who are required to again.

[Ms. Toad]

34. worldometers spreads the cases out evenly since the last update.

Ohio is still reporting daily cases - but deaths are clumped.

We're starting to see more masks. More employers are requiring employees to mask (most grocery stores, starbucks, drug stores), and one grocery store strongly recommends masks, but isn't enforcing it.

[wnylib]

36. Maybe you can explain to me

a strange thing I have noticed in the county dashboard numbers. The total active cases from the previous day and the new cases do not add up to the new total cases.

So, for example, using simple round numbers, the total active cases for a Wednesday might be 100. New cases on Thursday are 20. Then the new figure for total active cases is given as 105 instead of 120. So what happened to the other 15? At first I thought it meant that 20 people tested positive but 15 were asymptomatic and not considered active cases.

But the gap is too large every single day for there to be that many asymptomatic people, especially in a county where the vaccination rate is only 47%.

[Ms. Toad]

38. Is this NY times dashboard?

My guess is that it is similar to the "recovered" on worldometers.

As people recover they are taken off of the active list. So There were 100 people actively ill on Wednesday. 15 of them recovered, leaving only 85 active cases - so 20 new active cases brings the new total to 105?

Active cases & recovered have always been a bit of a mystery to me, since most people just recover and move on with life - how are they tracking that?

[wnylib]

39. I don't know how they are tracking

the recovered cases. I considered that the difference in numbers could be due to recovery, but since I follow the numbers each day, it looks like people are having remarkably quick recoveries. That was more noticeable when the numbers were lower in the beginning of the increase in cases.

The site is not connected with the NYT. There is a web address on the site that connects it with cdc.gov.

(I doubt that anyone in NYC knows that we exist here. This is a rural county several hundred miles from NYC. In fact, we often complain here that even the state government in Albany - also several hundred miles away - doesn't know that we exist. That might improve with our new Governor Hochul who is from a Buffalo suburb near us.)

[Botany]

16. Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, and some others look to be playing with the #s

n/t

[ChazInAz]

17. I have trouble believing that MO is a negative number.

[Botany]

24. Considering it is out of ICU beds and S.W. MO is a national hot spot for C-19 the number seems funny

BTW When did the dealing with and the fighting of this deadly disease become a political
issue when it should be a medical science and public health issue?

[wnylib]

28. Negative only for being affected by Sturgis.

Maybe too many bikers in MO were in ICUs and couldn't make the trip.

[GopherGal]

33. I think these are week-over-week changes...

so states that were already maxed out (MO, AR, FL) are showing only small increases or outright decreases.

[IronLionZion]

18. Their increases started earlier, like July

the pic in the OP is showing the change in August.

[NoMoreRepugs]

26. Governor DeInSane here in Florida has to be controlling the covid numbers.

Pretty sure private school covid numbers aren't being included in the stats and I've NEVER believed anything coming out from the gigantic nursing home industry here in the state.

[NullTuples]

45. The official death numbers he released are no worse than in March of 2020

Given that the hospitals are near capacity in some cases, that seems somewhat doubtful.

[fescuerescue]

32. I'm surprised that Florida is only up 3%. I would have guessed a lot more.

Also surprised that Oregon and Illinois are near the top.

[TomCADem]

44. Actually That is Scary That Florida's Cases Are Still Going Up

They went up pretty early, so you would think that new cases would start to go down given how many people were falling ill unlike SD, which is getting a massive recent spike due to Sturgis.

[ProfessorGAC]

35. Questionable Map

Florida is shown as +3% over that period.
2.704 million to 3.045 million is a difference of 341,000.
That is not 3% of 2.7 million. It's 12.7%.
Illinois is shown at +47%. I see under 1.44 million going to just over 1.48 million. 41,000 new cases is not 47% of 1.44 million.
In addition, in that timeframe, Illinois went from 3,050 new cases to 4,000 daily. 950 is not 47% of 3,000.
I have no way of knowing how many other values are wrong. So, I can't trust this map.

[Pepsidog]

40. Man I suck at geography.

[Skittles]

41. Florida 3%?

BULLSHIT

[misanthrope]

42. Something is off

Alabama has not only been surging but Mobile, Alabama eclipsed its winter surge with a swell that started in the last days of July and lasted through the first two weeks of August. Were this for the last week, solely then I might buy the downturn but not from Aug. 6.

[Hekate]

43. Impressive! Also really, really grim and sad.