Democrats Strike Deal to Advance Budget Framework

[applegrove]

Democrats Strike Deal to Advance Budget Framework

August 24, 2021 at 3:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2021/08/24/house-democrats-strike-deal-to-advance-budget-framework/

"SNIP......

“After hours of infighting, House Democrats on Tuesday struck a deal that would approve their $3.5 trillion budget resolution, set up floor action on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by Sept. 27 and advance voting rights legislation,” Axios reports.

“The agreement allows all sides to say they got something, though none can claim a total win.”

.......SNIP"

[Phoenix61]

1. Pelosi rocks! It's so nice having a functioning government. nt

[FoxNewsSucks]

2. It sure is.

Although I won't really relax until Biden signs all of them into law. If we don't get the For the People Act passed, republicons will just come along, undo most of it and take credit for the rest.

[onetexan]

14. I have faith it w pass

Biden will get it done w Nancy & Chuck's help.

[Deminpenn]

3. This looks like the original plan

The House will pass the Senate budget resolution and get started immediately on a joint committee to write the bill, then vote on it and the 1T, then the 3.5T back to the Senate for reconciliation and the 1T bill to Biden, who has, iir my civics correctly, 10 days to sign or veto it. Plenty of time for the Senate to get through the reconcilliation machinations.

[FBaggins]

8. It isn't

Neither house can vote on the new budget until early October… so the final passage of the $1T can no longer be tied to the larger bill.

In theory, the compromise package could still be used as leverage to get the larger package through… but now it would have to be the President threatening a veto.

[Celerity]

16. And the September 27th date for the bi-partisan package vote is non-binding, so expect

fireworks, as that date approaches.

The 96 member-strong (the biggest group in the Dem caucus) Progressive Caucus is not going to give up the leverage they hold over the 10 (now up from nine, as the one I thought would join, Stephanie Murphy. did) 'Problem Solvers' centrists.

If they (the House) did pass the bi-partisan bill on the 27th or tbh, anytime before the $3.5 trillion (or whatever the final figure is for the reconciliation infrastructure bill) bill is passed, that group of 10 centrists could likely block the big package if they think it too large.

If the Senate really takes an axe to the $3.5 trillion figure and drives it down to say, $2, 2.1 trillion, the progs will freak as well. This is all far from over, unfortunately. I think it all come down to how much the Senate chops out to appease Manchin, Sinema, and others who are lurking quietly. Hopefully it comes in around,, say, $3 to 3.2 trillion and all sides can agree to pass BOTH bills. If the Senate lops of anything around a trillion dollars or more, its going to difficult indeed.

A truly Machiavellian scenario exists as well (Pelosi is absolutely key here). IF there are a lot of defections from the 96 members of the Prog Caucus, in numbers large enough to pass the $1.2 trillion dollar bi-partisan bill, but only with RETHUG House members who will vote for it (absolutely almost guaranteed some Rethugs in the House will vote for the $1.2 trillion bi-partisan bill) then the Prog's leverage could disappear.

Only Pelosi can stop that from happening (by holding up the vote). I fully expect that IF the Senate passes something too big for the centrists Dems to support, that they (Problem Solvers is bi-partisan, with many Rethugs in it too) will try and use Rethugs votes to overcome Progs who hold out, and thus pass the $1.2 trillion bill, with the promise, to the Rethugs, that in exchange for that, they will all block the bigger bill.

That only works if you have a large haemorrhage of progs who say fuck it, lets just pass the $1.2 trillion bi-partisan bill and take our chances on the bigger one. I have no clue what type of numbers we are talking about for that to happen (whether it is how many prog Dems defect and also I have no idea how many Rethugs will vote for the $1.2 trillion bi-partisan bill).

[FBaggins]

18. You're saying that Pelosi will go back on her word?

"I am committing to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27" has wiggle room?

This is all far from over

That much is true. The "progs" (?) can no longer use the smaller bill to force support for the larger one. The deal also promises that Manchin/Sinema's (and a few others who have expressed displeasure with the 3.5T figure) will have to support the final plan before the House votes on it. Progressives insisted that it be the other way around.

The projection steps that you lay out see about right to me otherwise. The final bill will be whittled down - hopefully to somewhere that both ends of the Democratic spectrum can support... but there will certainly be noise from both sides

The only difference for me is that I think it's more likely that the smaller bill will pass on the 27th and the president will hold on to it - hoping to add pressure to pass the larger bill. But in the end I don't think that he can veto it.

[Celerity]

19. All I said is that the 27th date is non-binding, so yes, there's wiggle room, at least from a legal

perspective. Political fall-out is another matter.

https://www.axios.com/house-democrats-deal-infrastructure-proposal-bd302e89-3fdb-4acc-9092-c9b054ea86e4.html

[Budi]

4. Speaker Pelosi!! Thank You, AGAIN & AGAIN & AGAIN

Whoever follows in Pelosi shoes as Speaker really needs to do themselves & us all a favor, and take a masterclass on her system of 'counting the votes'.

She is a genius.
God, I love & admire this icon of the US House.

Proud to be a Pelosi Democrat~💙

[applegrove]

11. +1000

[onetexan]

15. Ditto!!

[wcmagumba]

5. Great news, now if the Senate Dem leadership can crack a couple of heads (sarcasm)...

this should pass and let President Biden be up there with FDR for helping the working folks of America move ahead...also, the two infrastructure bills passing will help the Democratic Party retain control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections (given enough time for features of the bills to start having effects).

[AZSkiffyGeek]

6. In before the naysayers... nt

[BlueCheeseAgain]

7. I feel like this was inevitable.

Pelosi knows how to get votes, and the Dem caucus as a whole understands the big picture. The political media likes to play up tension, but this felt like a foregone conclusion to me.

[NewsCenter28]

9. None of this really matters until President Biden

can get his approval rating above the 41% or 44% it is at in the latest 538 polls today.

[FBaggins]

12. Those are outliers - or at least on the outer edge of the polling

He's definitely taken a hit recently, but nothing else has been that low.

[spanone]

10. K&R

[mcar]

13. Never bet against Madam Speaker

[Johnny2X2X]

17. The $3.5T Bill is $3.5T of awesomeness.

So Manchin and Sinema will pare it down some, but my guess is it ends up around $2.8T.

And people will whine, but it’s still $2.8T of awesome things for the middle class. This will be a game changer for working people. Biggest thing since the New Deal, even if it’s pared down some.