Gulf of Mexico States Pay Attention -update Now TD 9 - Louisiana get ready

[malaise]

Last edited Thu Aug 26, 2021, 01:12 PM - Edit history (1)

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the
south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional
development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[malaise]

1. 2.00pm update

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or
over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional
development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding
will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition,
this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind,
and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas,
and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next
week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to
form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress
of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Niagara]

2. Kicking for visibility!

Be safe DUers.

[Niagara]

3. Kicking for the evening crowd.

Another update as well.

[malaise]

4. If this system develops (as forecast) it is coming with Harvey type rain

started raining here in Jamaica and Cayman yesterday afternoon and has been raining non-stop since - mostly steady rain with occasional heavy squalls. There is very little wind at this time. Pay attention folks up the line

[Niagara]

17. I certainly hope that people are getting prepared.

[denbot]

5. Kick

Looks like it could be a Gulf Coast gut punch. Not like they need another..

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

6. Euro and GFS models have it now heading in the general direction of New Orleans

Wont know more until it gets into GOM with a better idea of its center of circulation, thats how computer models work.

[malaise]

7. They don't need this

Please no

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

9. Models cant be trusted this far out, it can still go anywhere, give it a couple moe days

[malaise]

10. Agree

Early notice is for planning for the what ifs

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

11. There's a hurricane season every year, people know how to prepare, nothing to do now but wait n see

[malaise]

12. That's true for those of us who have plans and can afford to restock

at the beginning of the season.
Additionally planning in the middle of a pandemic is different. A shelter could be a superspreader location.

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

13. You need to fix your computer infrastructure, U still double posting! lol

[malaise]

14. I've tried

believe me

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

15. U tried logging out and clearing cache and cookies?

[malaise]

16. Will try again

Kick with update