midterms.
First I deal with the numbers and the programmes in the bills, then I will talk midterms.
The US budget for 2020 was a $6.1 trillion spend in ONE year. IF we passed the full $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill (very doubtful we get to 3.5 trillion) AND the bi-partisan bill, we are still only spending (new spend + tax credits) $4 trillion OVER TEN YEARS in new spend.
$400 billion a year out of a budget that last year alone was 6.1 trillion for ONE YEAR. That's is only 6.5% of last years budget, so the numbers are FAR from massive, and that is IF we get the full $3.5 trillion passed. If we only get $2.5 trillion passed for reconciliation, then the new spend is only 300 billion usd per year, LESS that 5% of last years budget spend. We spend $1.5 trillion EACH YEAR on the war/security/surveillance state.
Biden's $2.6 trillion hard infrastructure proposal has been decimated down to only $550 billion. It is disingenuous to claim that renewal for 650 billion is part of some new Biden agenda. It is just highway and transportation programmes that are renewed tear after year
Let's say we someone get Manchin and Sinema to agree to $2.5 trillion for the reconciliation bill. That means that HALF of Biden's agenda for both bills combined is in the bin, trashed, gone.
Massive parts of his agenda, his campaign promises, vital programmes just go POOF. I already showed you the decimation of the bi-partisan bill, and now, even if we get the conservadems to only knock out 1 trillion usd from the reconcillation bill, a TONNE more will go poof.
The are BIDEN'S programmes, NOT (like the massive gaslighting going on by shitheels like the Wall street Journal are now saying/framing) Bernie Sanders or the Progressive level of bills.
They wanted 6 trillion usd for the reconciliation and 4 trillion usd for the hard infrastructure bill. $10 TRILLION.
They met long ago with Biden and dropped down from 6 trillion to 3.5 on reconciliation, and agreed to go basically 'hands off' on the bi-partisan deal. They have already given up aka compromised on 6 TRILLION dollars LESS, and that goes to 7 TRILLION LESS is the final reconciliation total is 2.5 trillion.
The progressives will have, at that point given in on 70 percent of all of their proposals. These are already NOT their bills. Bit they are fighting for Biden to get what he can,
IF we did pass the tiny $550 billion (over 10 years) bi-partisan bill NOW, and lose leverage, and then the conservadems scupper the bloody reconciliation, we (as in the entire Party) are FUCKED going into 2022,
$550 billion out of Bidens' $6.1 trillion totla in the 2 proposals. That means we lost 91% of both bills news spend. almost all of Biden's agenda in the ditch.
Even IF we somehow (after givenig ip leverage) some how get Manchin and Sinema to go for $1.5 trillion, say in 2022, Biden still got GUTTED for almost 70%.
Here is the reconciliation bill in detail.
Manchin and Sinema both say 1.5 trillion max (Manchin Saud he really wants only 1 trillion usd, but he is (LOL, he had the jacobs to claim this) 'compromising in a huge way by going up yo $1.5 trillion.
Not only that, BUT, those two have DIFFERENT programmes they each say are a deffo NO NO. One sys oki to one thing, BIT the other says NO, so that 1.5 trillion, IF there is no leverage, may be lowers.
Tell me
if you have to cut SIXTY percent from these, what are you going to accept?
Some of this is NOT esoteric, it us funding for pre existing programmes, btw.
$135 billion for the Committee on Agriculture Nutrition and Forestry. Funding to be used to address forest fires, reduce carbon emissions, and address drought concerns.
$332 billion for the Banking Committee. Including investments in public housing, the Housing Trust Fund, housing affordability, and equity and community land trusts.
$198 billion for the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. This would develop clean energy. (and remember, almost all environmental spend and tax credits were already gutted from the bi-partisan bill, as I have already shown)
$67 billion for the Environment and Public Works Committee. These monies would fund low-income solar and other climate-friendly technologies.
$1.8 trillion for the Finance Committee. This part of the bill is for investments in working families, the elderly, and the environment. It includes a tax cut for Americans making less than $400,000 a year, lowering the price of prescription drugs, and ensuring the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share of taxes. (this is prime funding here, and Manchinema want mass cuts here, which blows it up)
$726 billion for the Health, Labor, Education, and Pensions Committee. This addresses universal pre-K for 3- and 4-year-olds, childcare for working families, tuition-free community college, funding for historically black colleges and universities, and an expansion of the Pell Grant for higher education.
$37 billion for the HSGAC Committee. This would electrify the federal vehicle fleet, electrify and rehab federal buildings, improve cybersecurity infrastructure, reinforce border management, invest in green-materials procurement, and invest in resilience. (agin most all was guttend from the other bill already)
$107 billion for the Judiciary Committee. These funds address establishing "lawful permanent status for qualified immigrants."
$20.5 billion for the Indian Affairs Committee. This addresses Native American health programs and facilities, education programs and facilities, housing programs, energy programs, resilience and climate programs, BIA programs and facilities, Native language programs, and the Native Civilian Climate Corps.
$25 billion for the Small Business Committee. This provides for small business access to credit, investment, and markets.
$18 billion for the Veterans Affairs Committee. This funds upgrades to veteran facilities.
$83 billion for the Commerce Committee. This goes to investments in technology, transportation, research, manufacturing, and economic development. It provides funding for coastal resiliency, healthy oceans investments, including the National Oceans and Coastal Security Fund and the National Science Foundation research and technology directorate.
Say bye bye to 30% all the way up to 70% of that. OR ALL of it, if they scupper the entire thing.
Now, the midterms:
We are already in around a 10 seat Minority in the House before a single vote is cast, due to partisan redistricting by the Rethugs.
The last 2 'first term of a Dem POTUS' midterms (1994 and 2010) we were fucking a massacre, we were CRUSHED. Far bigger losses than we had a win in 2018, so we are fighting that horrid historical trend.
Now add in voter suppression (if we fail on voter protection bills).
Add in a HUGE fail on promises if we cock up the reconciliation infrastructure bills. and NO, rolling in with only 550 billion in new spend (IF we lose the whole 3.5 trillion bill) is NOT going to remotely help. AT ALL. It is a joke (55 billon per year, with is less that ONE PERCENT of 2020's budget).
Even if we do oki with the reconciliation bill, we still are likely to lose 25 to 35 seats on net (that is counting the negative ten or so we are already at).
In the Senate, we will be lucky to stay at 50/50 or go up by 51 D to 49 R
we have only 2 seats with a truly really good shot at, opens seats in
PA
NC
Wisconsin is the next most likely,
and as truly longer shots, FL, and OH
That's it for realistic, non wish-fulfilment races. We are not going to win IA, not IN, not KY. Those are fantasyland races, just like TX, KY, and SC were time.
We have 4 at risk seats
2 really at risk
GA Warnock (voter suppression up the arse, dead ahead cap'n)
NH (Hassan is in deep trouble if Sununu runs)
and then
NV Cortez Masto dodged a huge bullet when Sandoval said no, not this time
AZ Kelly dodged a bullet when Ducey said no, not this time
We are fighting that first Dem midterm tide in the Senate too, and IF we cock up the reconciliation bill, well, strap on, it is goig to be a rough ride.
No matter what, the House is likely gone, I am extraordinarily sad to say. Yhinks really need to break our way in a MASSIE fashion to retain the House and gain 2 seats net in the Senate (and thus negate Manchinema)
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