On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is a war breaking out between Taiwan and China?

[True Dough]

One being least likely, 10 being full-scale combat.

Taiwan is preparing for potential war with China following a series of increasingly aggressive military activity from Beijing, with Taipei’s foreign minister warning that should the nation attack, it would “suffer tremendously.”

China on Monday sent 52 military aircraft into Taiwan’s airspace, the largest military provocation seen yet. In anticipation of further aggression, the self-ruled island is preparing to repel any strike and has asked Australia to increase intelligence sharing and security cooperation, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told the Australian Broadcast Corporation's "China Tonight."

“The defense of Taiwan is in our own hands, and we are absolutely committed to that,” Wu told ABC's Stan Grant in an interview to be broadcast Monday.

“I’m sure that if China is going to launch an attack against Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well.”

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/575215-taiwan-preparing-for-possible-war-with-china

[True Dough]

1. Pompeo stoking the embers...

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

2. Likely Hood: 0

China is playing the long game.

[WarGamer]

3. It's be the most difficult position the US would find itself in since the Cuban Missile Crisis

And arguably a more dangerous position.

GOP'ers are itching for a full scale war if China attacks.

I personally feel the USA could more effectively stop Chinese aggression with financial weapons. Shut down every port to Chinese ships and start confiscating Chinese held property in the USA...

Much better than killing 10's of thousands in a silly war.

[pwb]

4. The world is wiery of war.

I say !

[abqtommy]

5. snark alert on: If Taiwan will stop their daily threats to invade mainland China

then we might calm the fears of the mainland Chinese. (alert off) But seriously, folks,
Taiwan and the U.S. have always been allies for as long as I've been alive (I'm 72) and I don't think the mainland Chinese want to experience the particular kind of hell we can rain down on them.

I think this particular conflict will finally play out in the marketplace, but we'll see.

[malaise]

6. Well MIC does need to be fed

and the Middle East is a no go.

FFS look after the American people for a change

[greenjar_01]

7. -37

[Stuart G]

16. I'll go you one better....-100...Trump is that stupid, Taiwan is NOT THAT STUPID...VERY FEW ARE ...

THAT STUPID.....

[greenjar_01]

17. That's literally

63 better.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Less Than 1

For China, war is bad for business.
They don't have a capitalist based MIC. Resources spent on war are resources interfering with, not part of, domestic business.
To be a superpower, they need to talk tough, but war is not likely to be profitable for them, particularly if trade sanctions get applied by 70% of the planet.
It just makes no sense for them to do any more than rattle their sabres.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. The question is "When?" They have Hong Kong, and Taiwan is a festering sore...

They might even still be itching over Quemoy and Matsu.

I don't know for sure what's stopping them, but war with Taiwan would be horrific and expensive, slowing down their other works worldwide. They should also be wary of the US getting involved. They've been poking at us for a while now, expanding into the Philippines and other areas, but I suspect that an actual shooting war with us is not in the plan.

Nah. They have no intention of giving up on Taiwan, but they are too damn smart to invade now.

Patience is a Chinese specialty.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

12. Patience is a Chinese speciality is kinda....you know.

[FreepFryer]

10. 2. There is always a chance for something unexpected to happen but not much of one.

Because

Kafwoom

[Alexander Of Assyria]

11. War of words/shooting war? 100/0

[jpak]

13. When mainland Chinese see thousands of their sons brought home in a box

From an unnecessary war

And their economy wrecked.

They might not like the assholes that started it.

Ya think?

[LanternWaste]

14. Eventually, Beijing will attempt greater economic projection into the island.

The struggle will most likely be economic rather than military force projection. For the coming five to seven years, a military force projection would cost China more than it would gain. All thing being equal, it would most likely take until 2035 to build enough sealift to transport an invasion force capable of holding and defending any land taken (that includes current CAS capabilities).

Jinping has amassed virtually unlimited power for himself and his allies, meaning risking war would be an unnecessary gamble. Xi can already boast of cracking down on Hong Kong, subduing Xinjiang, and reclaiming most of the contested South China Sea. But if invading Taiwan went badly, none of that would matter: his legacy in P.R.C. history would forever be tarnished.

Simultaneously, Tsai has sought to bolster Taiwan’s defenses by raising the defense budget, reforming the reserves, improving its image from historical associations with the martial law era, and purchasing billions of dollars in arms from the US since taking office.

Additionally, Taiwan is a rugged, heavily urbanized nation. The country is made up of over 100 islands, most too tiny to see on a map. Many of these outer islands bristle with missiles, rockets, and artillery guns. Their granite hills have been honeycombed with tunnels and bunker systems.

During WW2, Fortress Europa was heavily fortified but manned poorly and the question of success was still up in the air by the end of the day. In the here and now, Taiwan is both heavily fortified and heavily manned. A military invasion of Taiwan by China would cost Jinping much, much more than it would receive in any benefit. China can simply keep the money-squeeze on the island as they are now and get the same result, with no loss of blood over a longer (but politically irrelevant) span of time.


(See: The Struggle across the Taiwan Strait by Ramon Myers; and War and Peace Between America and China by Terence Kwai)

[OAITW r.2.0]

15. China has lots of internal problems right now.

The world economy and their heavy hands in HK and Shanghai being the two biggest. The Politburo is filled with multi-millionaires/billionaires......there's only so far these people will join in on killing the goose that laying the golden eggs.

If China attacks Taiwan, expect a total embargo on Chinese goods. It will hurt us, sure....but it will hurt China a lot more.

[marble falls]

18. 1.