(Harry Enten) Independents have turned on Joe Biden

[brooklynite]

(CNN)President Joe Biden won the 2020 election in large part because he was able to win the center. He emerged with a 13-point win with independent voters, a group that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton lost by 4 points in 2016. (House Democratic candidates, for their part, took independents by 9 points in 2020.)

That's why it should be alarming to Biden that the recent downturn in his approval rating has come disproportionately from independents, as the Washington Post's Henry Olsen first pointed out. This slide could have major electoral implications, if it holds.

You can see this trend among independents in polls that meet CNN's standards for reporting. Biden's net approval rating (approve-disapprove) among independents in polls completed in September and October stands at -16 points. Not surprisingly, his net approval rating is significantly higher among Democrats (+79 points) and lower among Republicans (-84 points).

Biden's net approval rating was better among all groups in an average of polls back in June and July. His net approval rating stood at +88 points among Democrats, +3 points with independents and -72 points among Republicans.

The key thing here though is that while the drop among Democrats (9 points) and Republicans (12 points) is evident, it's even larger among independents (19 points).

Someone will suggest that we ignore Independents and just focus on base Democratic voters. That is not a path to victory.

[czarjak]

1. They're going GOP?

[Budi]

15. They're sure helping aren't they!

We know what their end game is.

[kentuck]

2. Most of them go with the wind.

They have no idea what they believe. It could change tomorrow.

[hamsterjill]

3. The populace in general is annoyed

That Democrats are not getting things passed.

[lagomorph777]

4. SineManchin are getting the job done.

Of course, their job is different from our job.

[hamsterjill]

6. Yes, they "lean" in a different direction.

Don’t they?

[lagomorph777]

8. Indeed.

Toward Moscow.

[Demsrule86]

36. We should pass the infrastructure bill and continue to work on reconciliation.

[lagomorph777]

47. If we pass the infrastructure bill, reconciliation is over.

We would have no leverage over SineManchin at that point.

[Budi]

14. Who's fault is that?

Big ol Chirp on the Republicans, as predicted.

Maybe start primarying Republicans rather than Democrats.
It not all Manchin & Sinema, btw.

[hamsterjill]

17. It is all Manchin and Sinema.

Sorry, but those two need to be brought in line and then we might have a different situation. Others might decide that they, too, need to stay in line.

Don’t bother asking me how they should be brought in line. That’s for the party leaders to figure out. Any suggestions that I might have wouldn’t be tolerated.

[Budi]

21. LOL. Nope. We have a few DINOs in the House & Senate who have made clear they'll opppose Biden,

..unless it serves their media image.

"80% of Democrats said they supported mandates, compared with 44% of Independents and 23% of Republicans"

Says it all right there.
But if Media keeps the focus on these 2 Dems, then no one's seeing what those other DINOs are up to.

shhhh ..🤫

[hamsterjill]

30. Your opinion is duly noted.

I still say get those two in line, and others will be less likely to cross Biden.

Have a great day.

[Demsrule86]

37. There is nothing you can do to 'get those two in line'. Without them we have no majority.

A deal will be made or we pass infrastructure and move on.

[hamsterjill]

39. As I said in my post.

I can’t say what I would do to get them in line. We all know there are ways.

You and I have been down this road before. Please stop. I will not engage further.

[Demsrule86]

43. You can't say it because there is no way to do it...if we hammer them Mitch will welcome them

with open arms...the only thing we can do is make a deal if possible. And of course, we need to try to win the midterms. There is no magic answer and as another poster noted...there are others besides Manchin and Sinema who are moderates and oppose some aspects of the reconciliation bill...both in the House and in the Senate.

I understand how after we finally won a bit of power, this is frustrating, but our reality is we can not win a majority without moderates and that will always limit some progressive policy. We can move forward. The ACA is an example. Was it everything we wanted... no. But it caused people to view health care as a right, not a privilege, and some of the bills we pass now will act in the same way. We will move forward albeit slower than we wish. But we have to tailor what we do to our political reality and legislate things that can pass the Senate and the House.

And remember, we are putting a good number of judges on the bench...hopefully Breyer retires before 22 and we get a SCOTUS pick for sure. I think we can win some Senate seats in 22. We need to work hard and pass some bills...if all we can do is infrastructure...it will surely help in 22 and 24.

[hamsterjill]

45. Have yourself a great day.

I'm not engaging with you.

[lagomorph777]

48. Pork, bribes, and Kompromat.

We have to play it their way for now.

[samplegirl]

5. Insurrection

should be front and center!

[Demsrule86]

38. No, people want stuff for them done...insurrection is our deal...won't play with independents.

[rso]

7. Independents

It will change as the Covid situation improves and the economy improves further with it. Passage of the two bills now pending will also present a major improvement in Biden’s popularity. Also, Democrats need to be out there bringing attention to the GQP obstruction 24/7.

[Budi]

11. They can't be out there with the Corporate Media & Zuckerburg's algorithums leading the

...messaging 24/7.

It's 2016 Corporate Media messaging, more refined.

[rso]

16. Messaging

Biden and the DNC can be out there 24/7, the Corporate media is certainly not going to refuse to air Biden’s speeches and arguments, nor will they refuse to air paid ads by the DNC and other democratic organizations.

[Budi]

24. LOL. Have we not watched the parade of news show 'regulars'?

Whose opinions lead the disection of Biden's speeches as soon as he finishes!

CORPORATE & SOCIAL MEDIA HEADLINES do a bang up job everytime of driving the "real message" of Biden's words. 🙄

A few minutes showing his speeches & its back to the parading thru the news shows of the regulars who carry the messaging for Corporate Media's bias in exchange for a profile raising moment on the TV.

There ain't an honest one in that parade.
Posers with an agenda.

[rso]

28. Messaging

That does not preclude paid ads by the DNC, which the media would gladly run for money. The DNC and its Chair, have been silent through this ordeal.

[Budi]

31. Just cuz you haven't heard them doesn't mean they're silent.

CORPORATE MEDIA.
Zuckerburg's magic algorithum

[rso]

35. DNC

I watch all the major network and cable news services, democrats are definitely not countering the GQP propaganda. They need to take some responsibility for their timid or non-existent responses. As bad as the MSM may be, they will never refuse to run ads countering the GQP.

[Budi]

42. Run an ad?! How bout giving them some free airtime to speak?

Corp Media sure allows quite a hand selected parade of opinioned guests camera ready & primed to drag that negative Dem message 24/7.

[rso]

44. Messaging

I don’t know which media you watch, but I constantly see democratic members of Congress and democratic strategists making appearances and making the democratic case on MSNBC, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS etc. free of charge. But if you’re worried about the MSM commentators negatively dissecting the democrats’ points, paying for ads resolves that issue as ads run in between news segments.

[Budi]

46. Jfc. 🙄

[Demsrule86]

41. I like Jaime...let me say this. But we need someone with more experience in elections...The DNC

should be working to recruit candidates for the house in 22 and running ads. A 50 state strategy is needed. We must stop handing out the DNC job for political reasons...it is a very important job. Howard Dean shows what someone who knows what they are doing can accomplish.

[Budi]

9. This is bs.

What would Indys prefer?
8 months into Biden's Presidency & he's done a hell of a job for this country considering the shithole he was tasked with cleaning up.

This is Corporate Media setting up 2024.

[jaysunb]

10. Exactly ! Nt

[womanofthehills]

12. Independents and mandates

In CNN's poll, 80% of Democrats said they supported mandates, compared with 44% of Independents and 23% of Republicans. The survey, conducted by the independent research company SSRS between August 3 and September 7, relied on a nationally representative group of more than 2,000 adults. https://www.businessinsider.com/most-americans-support-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-polls-2021-9

[Budi]

18. Figures.

"80% of Democrats said they supported mandates, compared with 44% of Independents and 23% of Republicans"

They're all the party of Yang in the end.

[Sympthsical]

22. Yeah, people are out of touch on this one. Big blind spot

Part of the politicization of Covid related matters, this idea that it's only crazy right-wingers causing the problems. To read a lot of media, including here, you'd certainly have that impression.

"Vaccine mandates are common sense and only the right-wing objects to them!"

Except, no. A lot of people don't like them. A lot. Rightly or wrongly, I think people see it as encroaching authoritarianism and are instinctively flinching back.

Even unions are fighting the things, and they're a big Democratic bloc.

People vastly overestimated how politically palatable mandates were going to be. They thought they'd just piss off the Right.

So . . . how's that assumption going? It's why ideological bubbles are bad. "Well, everyone I know is fine, and it's only evil Republicans who hate what I like!"

Country doesn't work that way.

[shrike3]

32. So there should be no mandates and the pandemic goes on indefinitely?

[malletgirl02]

33. If there were no mandate

These same independents would be against Biden for not ending the pandemic just like before Biden instituted the mandates.

[shrike3]

34. I agree. n/t

[gab13by13]

13. Who is Harry Enten?

[hamsterjill]

19. He's the numbers guy!

He’s supposedly a math whiz and regularly appears on CNN. He’s also Neil Sedaka’s nephew, I’m told.

[rso]

20. Enten

Enten is actually a reputable statistics/numbers guy who has certainly called things out as they are. He’s a frequent contributor at CNN and is thought of as a democratic shill by the GQP, so that actually gives him credibility in my opinion.

[Polybius]

40. I see what you did there! :)

[Lovie777]

23. The ones that believe in Democracy have not . . ..

[Budi]

26. Yup. Glad to know there are a majority of us still around

This is more Corporate Media Messaging from the burn it all downers

It will be evident who made a pact wirh Corporate Media as we near the next election.

[JI7]

25. Independents go which way the wind blows .

[Budi]

27. Populists.

[gab13by13]

29. My guess is that the right wants to flood the media with

election articles and forget about holding the traitors accountable. Just do your job Dems and the polls will take care of themselves.

I know the right can't wait for Kornacki time.

I want to know about Jeffrey Clark and grand juries.