Another bad-news poll for Democrats

[applegrove]

Another bad-news poll for Democrats

Chris Cillizza at the Point (email from CNN)

"SNIP......

Most Americans now view the Republican Party as better than the Democratic Party at protecting the country from international threats and ensuring the nation remains prosperous, according to a new poll from Gallup. These are also the GOP's widest margins ahead of the Democrats in either issue area in at least six years.

On security matters: 54% prefer the Republican Party and 39% prefer the Democratic Party Largest GOP advantage since 2015

On prosperity: 50% prefer the Republican Party and 41% prefer the Democratic Party Largest GOP advantage since 2014

While the Republican Party has historically been seen as the one better situated to handle security matters and the economy, Gallup adds some context for this latest bump: "More of this change has come from declines in Americans perceiving the Democratic Party as better on these issues than from increases for the Republican Party."

.....SNIP"

I'm sorry but the bad news is real.

[PoliticAverse]

1. "Perception is everything". n/t

[rownesheck]

2. Poll of myself:

Americans are fucking stupid.

[SoCalDavidS]

8. This Is True, And Why America Is Fucked nt

[Eliot Rosewater]

3. Proof that America is broken and cant be repaired, certainly not in my lifetime

[greenjar_01]

4. You gonna self delete this thread too?

[applegrove]

13. I regret deleting that email. I was not sure of the source after people complained.

I thought about it all evening. When I saw this one in my email I thought I'll make it up. I'll put this up. People need to be awake. The source is good. So here we are.

[spooky3]

5. Both Gallup and Cillizza are right-leaning.

I’ll wait for better evidence.

[PortTack]

26. Exactly..Ciillizza is no better than chuck toad!

[Celerity]

33. it was not written by Chris Cillizza, the OP should have put in a link, here it is

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/11/politics/republicans-trust-in-national-security-prosperity-gallup-poll/index.html





snip

[RFCalifornia]

29. No, he's Cassandra

And Cassandra was always right, but nobody believed her

Just because the news isn't good doesn't mean they lean right

[spooky3]

46. They lean right as evidenced by prior research. Check it out.

Last edited Tue Oct 12, 2021, 10:12 AM - Edit history (2)

They may be correct this time, but there isn’t even enough info in the article to assess the quality of this study. What was the method? What percentage of people asked to participate were Ds, Rs, Is, others? How do these compare to known population %s? What was the effect of asking during weeks where news had been bad for Biden, eg, outlets criticizing Afghanistan, uptick in deaths of unvaxxed, etc.?

Lots of reasons to take this with a critical eye.

[Me.]

6. N ot Buying It

The only person, so far, who hasn't said/polled that the DEms are in trouble is Michael Moore. Whenever you want bad news for Dems just speed dial Cilizza/Gallup. What both did to HRC is not to be believed any more than I'm buying this especially as CBS says something completely different.

[Dawson Leery]

7. CBS/Yougov say otherwise.

[gldstwmn]

9. What is the actual issue here?

Raise your hand if you're happy?

[JohnSJ]

10. Link?

[applegrove]

15. It is an email you subscribe to. There is no link.

[Celerity]

34. there is a link

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15943530

[JohnSJ]

42. Thanks. Going to the link it says the survey was from Sept 1 to Sept 17.

“ There is also a very important note on timing here. Gallup conducted this survey on governance from September 1 to September 17. During that time, we had the aftermath of the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, rising Covid-19 infections and a weaker-than-expected US employment report: a particularly bruising series of news cycles for President Joe Biden and his party.”

[Celerity]

36. here

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/11/politics/republicans-trust-in-national-security-prosperity-gallup-poll/index.html

[Azathoth]

11. It's very simple. 40% of the country is in a cult, and the other 60% are influenced by CNN

The ridiculous fucking msm couldn't wait to go all in on sinking Biden.

Their antics have no effect one way or the other on GOP cultists, but they're very successful at peeling away moderate Dem supporters.

Not that Dems are anything great right now. We've had both houses of Congress and the presidency for going on a year and we haven't passed a single meaningful piece of legislation since the stimulus checks that even Trump called for.

Inflation is out of control, the country does *not* feel like it's coming out of the pandemic successfully, and the GOP are rather successfully tying us to everything from defund the police to critical race theory.

So yeah, we're in a lot of trouble if we don't start turning this thing around.

[JohnSJ]

16. The poll is a reflection of only those who answer their phones from numbers they don't know. With

all the spoofing going on, I don’t answer unknown numbers, even if they have caller ID

I would like to know that percentage of those who don’t answer unknown numbers

[PortTack]

27. The number of ppl in tfg cult is NOT 40%!

25% of the voting public identity as gqp

25% of 168 million = 42 million. Of that 25%, 44% support tfg = 11%..so between 4.3- 5 million.

[Azathoth]

45. 40% will vote for Trump if he eats a newborn on live TV, complete with tartar sauce

You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

Some identify as "Republican", many more identify as "conservative" or "independent"... it doesn't matter. Trump will get 40% of the vote no matter what.

[JohnSJ]

43. Actually we have passed several pieces of legislation

[Celerity]

44. IMHO you overstate the percentages of Americans engaged with politics to any real degree

30% are QMAGAT + rentier class who think they can ride the white power wave to a 90% dereg state

30-35% Dem or Dem adjacent (with blacks diminishing as a % of US pops, and Latinx now becoming more RW (hello Latinx evangelicals, who are exploding in number and can be so so radical, plus the Cubanos and South Americans, ie Americans from Brasil, Argentina, Columbia, Venezuela or of those nations by descent), as are Asians.

35-40% who don't follow that much and drift to either side (a minority of that number) or simply don't give a fuck (a majority of that number)

Just a rough guess on my part.

[Elessar Zappa]

49. Your percentages are about right but

I’d say the demographics still favor us. Latinos are going more right wing in certain states but in others they remain strongly Democratic like NM, AZ, CA, and others.

[Celerity]

50. The Latinx evangelical movement is nationwide and can truly start to impact

swing states. I did a fairly extensive OP on it awhile back, and the numbers are a bit stagerring how quickly it is growing. For the first time ever in the US (and before it was a nation) Catholics now make up under 50% of all Latinx.

[BootinUp]

12. That is the most ridiculous thing I have seen lately. Best not to take any one poll

too seriously imho.

[applegrove]

17. Best not to listen to my lying eyes.... it might light a fire within.

[uponit7771]

38. So Biden quinnipiac wasn't an outliar?, Yeah yeah it was...

[applegrove]

40. I was not talking about that. I'm talking Gallup. Nice straw man.

[uponit7771]

47. My point being Gallup poll could be an outlier too like quinnipiac was, polling companies in America

.... Don't have the benefit of the doubt any longer.

The American economy crashed under Trump and somehow the people Gallup pulled trust Republicans more than Democrats with it?

Democratic messaging can't be that bad, seems like outlier polling

[TheRealNorth]

14. The MSM has been raking Biden over the coals for Afghanistan for 2 months....

Not surprised.

[doc03]

18. It's the economy (inflation) and with Democrats finally controlling both

the Presidency and Congress and still not getting Biden's agenda passed.

[Mad_Machine76]

19. I am continually befuddled

We get the Republicans out of power and five seconds later people want them back

1. A majority of people wanted out of Afghanistan. Biden got us out of Afghanistan, which he couldn't have done anything else anyway. Media generates a lot of hyperbolic news coverage of the withdrawal, which successfully evacuates our forces and over 100K troops and allies.
Result: Republicans lead on security matters
2. Initiatives in BBB are popular, even among Republicans. Republicans in Congress are universally obstructing it (along with two right-wing Democrats)
Result: Republicans lead on prosperity

[Cosmocat]

51. I learned a BIG lesson from the 2010 mid term

that this country gave them such an overwhelmingly massive mid term win after the W debacle ... It took them being THAT bad to get BHO elected with a good D majority, and the country blew it up after two years to put in a new batch of insane right wing lunatics ...

Lost hope for the country.

[brush]

20. Most republicans may believe that, and Gallup is well known...

to be a right-leaning poll. Why post this here?

[MFM008]

21. what bullshit

first Gallup is right up there with Rasmusson.
Second Its hard to believe anyone with a BRAIN would think the republicans have
done ANYTHING except plot and scheme and lie and supress the vote.
what do people think will be any different that it was when they had all 3 branches of government
and did nothing but protect the rich.
Its insulting to our intelligence.
We shall see where we are in a year.
We shall see if the supreme court overturns Roe v Wade
we shall see.

[applegrove]

22. Wow. Lots of cooling the marks out here. Don't be upset. Don't think

it is bad. God don't take action and start volunteering with Democrats a year out from an important election. Nothing to see here. Everything is sunshine.

[ismnotwasm]

23. Don't read Cillizza. Ever.

[rickyhall]

24. Even though the repugs always crash the economy and never won a war since 1865.

Wouldn't know the truth if they fell over it. I refuse to be hopeless.

[ProgRocknProgPol]

25. Ok. The bad news is real. So what are you doing about it?

[andym]

28. Article is on the CNN site, Democrats need to pass their programs

The economy is still sound, polls will reflect that as election gets closer. The sense of prosperity is being hurt by recent inflation, which is hopefully temporary. The Afghanistan debacle is hurting Democrats on security/foreign affairs, but memories of that will fade too.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/11/politics/republicans-trust-in-national-security-prosperity-gallup-poll/index.html

[bigtree]

30. CBS News poll

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1 11h
CBS News poll:

88% of Americans support federal funding for lowering prescription drug prices

84% support federal funding for Medicare coverage for dental/eye/hearing

73% support federal funding for paid family/medical leave

67% support federal funding for universal pre-K

Link to tweet

[Celerity]

32. yet she says

88% of Americans support federal funding for lowering prescription drug prices

[Buckeye_Democrat]

31. Meanwhile, I've seen commercials with an old woman...

... yelling, "Tell Biden to stop the left-wing squeeze on Medicare!"

[budkin]

35. Gallup is a joke

Has been for years

[vercetti2021]

37. Every day is bad news for dems on here

Seriously every fucking day I see posts like this. Okay so what are we gonna do? We can keep pressure on our two turds in the punch bowl but they won't budge unless their corporate overlords tell them so

[PortTack]

41. This!!!!

[Raine]

39. When something bad might happen it's better to know ahead of time and be prepared

then caught off guard because you're in denial. I've that happen many times in politics and it's not pleasant at all.

[ProfessorGAC]

48. I'll Need To See The Exact Questions

In areas as amorphous as "security" & "prosperity", the tone & exact wording of the questions has a pronounced effect on the result.
These topics are not "is the sky blue, yes or no".
Definitions of security & prosperity vary broadly across different demographics, so the questions can lend themselves to eliciting unpredictable responses.
The fact that Rs have a majority in this poll without actually reflecting an increase in public confidence is inherently suspicious.
It's too big a fall of confidence in the dems, since a resounding victory by Biden, just 11 months ago, to make sense.
I felt the same way about Quinnipiac last week, even though I usually find their polls trustworthy.
I am concerned that with the drastic polarization, their methods for stratifying the random sampling hasn't been reevaluated.