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[Tomconroy]

This message was self-deleted by its author (Tomconroy) on Tue Oct 19, 2021, 03:01 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[Sanity Claws]

1. Could it be tourists?

This is prime foliage time for those states.

[Tomconroy]

2. Hadn't thought of that.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Vinca]

3. I live on the border of VT/NH and there have been recent reports of institutional cases in the

multiples. All it takes is one vaccinated prison guard or nurses aid to cause the numbers to skyrocket. The leaf peepers are another factor. There were quite a few of them around the first 2 weeks of October and it takes time for the Covid numbers to reflect their almost total disregard for the locals when it comes to masking. I still feel safer here than I would in any other part of the country.

[LisaL]

4. Vaccines could be wearing off at this point.

I hope people will get their boosters.

[Hugin]

14. Colder and dryer Fall/Winter weather is starting.

It is fairly mild in the southern US right now, but, look for that to change.

One thing about COVID. You can really see the seasons in the charts and sometimes the actual weather back when most were updating daily.

Yep, I've got a booster penciled in. Flu shot, also.

[helpisontheway]

15. So many people are telling me that they don't plan to get the booster

My 78 yr old aunt is saying that she does not think she will get it. 🤦🏽‍♀️

[Wingus Dingus]

23. What is her reasoning?

[helpisontheway]

35. She said she is tired

of getting shots. 🤦🏽‍♀️ She also said it does not seem like the shots are working (because of breakthroughs). My mom told her that it reduces the chance that she would be hospitalized. She has underlying health conditions. Hopefully her sons will be able to convince her to get it.

[Wingus Dingus]

39. That's a weird reason. It takes like five minutes at a pharmacy.

The sad thing is her belief that the shots aren't working. Someone needs to teach her how antibodies work, how the vaccine helps you mount a quicker immune response so that if you catch the disease, it's stopped before it overwhelms your lungs.

[Delphinus]

26. Hubby and I

are anxiously awaiting the time when we can - we're under 65 and healthy. So, that's in our favor.

[ananda]

30. It won't be long... maybe in two weeks.

I read that the FDA will soon open up boosters to more people.

[Blues Heron]

5. Conn has been flat for two months, Mass. decreasing for a month

There's been no substantial increase in either state. You're probably misinterpreting the number you saw - Monday often has three days worth of cases. Could that be it?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/massachusetts/

on edit - you should delete this scare mongering OP

[Tomconroy]

6. Look at the NY times site. I think they have more accurate numbers.

VT and NH have been trending up for a while now. Maine was trending up through Sept but now is dropping. CT, MA and CT just started rising. Your numbers are out of date.
The Times numbers are a daily average over a week's time.

[Blues Heron]

8. those are the numbers reported by each state

Theres no increase in New England. Mass just reported their lowest number in weeks - 997, they have been over 1000 since mid August. Your just fear mongering.

[Blues Heron]

10. Post your scary numbers then

I think your trying to scare people - new england is past the peak

[Tomconroy]

11. MA daily average for Oct 18 is 1831. Up 31 percent from two weeks

ago.
CT is 609. Up 43 percent in two weeks.
RI is 355. Up 30 percent.
VT 232. Up 38 percent.

[Blues Heron]

13. they have substantially different numbers then

What I see on worldometers far different


Mass is down from 1900/weekly average in mid september

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/massachusetts/

not up - down. Lowest daily total yesterday in a weeks - 997


Conn seven day average is 445 - down from 773 a month ago.

[Tomconroy]

21. Not everyone is crazy about worldometer:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldometer

[Blues Heron]

17. but down since mid september

I think its a glitch - the NYT plot is very glitchy - possibly because of the long weekend last week. There are four anomalous spikes in their seven day average plot in the last 2 months. up and down. - that should be a smooth line. This latest spike is probably similar. I wouldnt get too twisted about it unless it continues.

They are probably including the columbus day long weekend data - which was released on the tuesday following the holiday- in their seven day average, thus this anomalous spike.

[Tomconroy]

18. I wouldn't have posted if it was just one state. But 4 out of 5

Seemed significant.

[Blues Heron]

22. probably holiday reporting in all of them led to 9 days of cases in the 7 day avg

they all released three day weekend numbers last tuesday which are being added to this week's totals by the NYT - that means 9 days worth of cases are jammed into today's seven day average. Worldometers doesn't do that - they put the daily totals where they belong so they don't cause big scary spikes.

[Tomconroy]

24. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, my main Covid man, actually predicted just

this more than month ago.

[Blues Heron]

27. just look at worldometers - its more accurate

NYT probably has some intern handling the data input, and they didn't correct for the three day holiday data dump last Tuesday.

[Tomconroy]

28. They aren't that crazy about worldometer on Wikipedia.

[Blues Heron]

29. at least they correct for holidays unlike the NYT

best to cross check all of them, NYT Worldo, Covid ACT now, etc.

[Celerity]

43. 5 out of 6, 4 of them are in the top 5, the 5th is number 9

[Blues Heron]

46. I just checked Mass - the NYT did indeed roll the previous weekends numbers into their 7 day

see for yourself - the numbers are from the NYT site and worldometers respectively

they rolled in the previous weekends numbers to arrive at their 7 day average of 1831

that 7 day average should be about 1335

the numbers are exactly the same as on worldometers except NYT counts the monday weekend numbers as one day then has zero for saturday and sunday whereas wordlometers splits them across the weekend days so as not to skew the 7 day average if theres a holiday

Massachusetts october

day NYT Worldo
18th - 2991 997
17th 0 997
16th 0 997
15th 1649 1649
14th 1789 1789
13th 1763 1763
12th 4625 1157
11th 0 1156
10th 0 1156
9th 0 1156


if you include that 4625 on the 12th you will see that the vaunted NYT rolled the entire long weekend numbers into its 7 day average for the 18th to arrive at the scary 1831 instead of the more accurate 1335. Thus the 30 PERCENT HEEEUUUGE INCREASE BE AFRAID type post.

[Tomconroy]

47. I guess you're right. I'll delete the post and see what happens.

[Celerity]

16. every New England State except for Maine is in the top 9 and 4 of them are in the top 5 for case

growth over the past 14 days

State trends

This table is sorted by places with the most cases per 100,000 residents in the last seven days. Charts show change in daily averages and are each on their own scale. Select a table header to sort by another metric.

[Blues Heron]

19. I think its a holiday glitch - 9 days worth of data in a seven day average

its throwing off the numbers - check worldometers - they are more accurate about long weekends and putting the daily totals where they belong.

[Celerity]

31. where do you get

9 days worth of data in a seven day average

from?

[Blues Heron]

32. a lot of states don't release data on weekends or holidays

it all gets dumped the following Monday or Tuesday. It can lead to anomalous spikes on the graphs if two weekends worth of data end up in a weekly average because of a delay in reporting after a holiday.

[Celerity]

34. Show me where that happened on the NYT site. You are making a claim, back it up with real evidence.

[Blues Heron]

36. my point is don't get too twisted about any one number

you have to look at the trends. Post-holiday numbers can be skewed. Every weekend's numbers are skewed if you look at the graphs- there is a weekly sawtooth pattern to the numbers. That's because they don't report on weekends. normally that gets smoothed in the weekly average. But it can make it into the next week's weekly average if there's a holiday.

[Celerity]

37. So you have no evidence? Just conjecture followed by assumptions followed by non-supported claims?

done here

[Blues Heron]

38. Guess we'll just have to watch as the trends unfold over the next few weeks

[Blues Heron]

40. https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting

https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting

from the link -

Updated Monday-Friday by 5 p.m.
Data from Friday, Saturday and Sunday are included in the Monday dashboard data.
When Monday is a scheduled holiday, the Friday through Monday data will be posted on Tuesdays.

[Celerity]

41. That proves nothing, you are claiming the NYT is overloading their moving average with extra days

Please show me where that is done, and no I am not sea-lioning, as it is all the same original request for direct, substantiated evidence of data-skewing by The Times.

[Blues Heron]

42. because it doesnt show up anywhere else like worldometers

theres no 40 percent increase in Mass or Rhode island. Maine is down, only Vermont is peaking right now. Conn is flat. NH is post peak. The OP scare mongering is based on a holiday anomaly. I dont know how carefully the NYT calculates their numbers, but its likely they rolled in the tuesday holiday numbers and it messed up their 7 day average. So go ahead and check each days number, add them up and compare with the NYT average. Ill leave that to you.

the number tomorrow should be more accurate

[Blues Heron]

44. get me the daily numbers for massachsetts and Ill add them up for you

prove me wrong

[Blues Heron]

45. I just cross checked the NYT numbers- its exactly as I said

they rolled in the previous weekends numbers to arrive at their 7 day average of 1831 that has the OP freaking out.

that 7 day average should be about 1335

the numbers are exactly the same as on worldometers except NYT counts the monday weekend numbers as one day then has zero for saturday and sunday whereas wordlometers splits them across the weekend days so as not to skew the 7 day average if theres a holiday

day NYT Worldo
18th - 2991 997
17th 0 997
16th 0 997
15th 1649 1649
14th 1789 1789
13th 1763 1763
12th 4625 1157
11th 0 1156
10th 0 1156
9th 0 1156


if you include that 4625 on the 12th you will see that the vaunted NYT rolled the entire weekend numbers into its 7 day average for the 18th to arrive at the scary 1831 instead of the more accurate 1335. Thus the 30 PERCENT HEEEUUUGE INCREASE BE AFRAID type post.

[bullwinkle428]

7. SHIT - you're correct about Vermont. They're literally at their highest case rate

since the entire pandemic began.

This happens every goddamned time cases begin to decrease nationally. Far too many people act like everything's completely over.

[bullwinkle428]

12. For those asking to see substantiated data, here's the link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

Scroll down to "State Trends", and see how each state is doing. Look specifically at the "14-day change".

[Tomconroy]

20. The other interesting thing is that Hawaii, Louisiana and

Florida are now the lowest, but I knew I'd get called a liar if I posted that.

[Mariana]

25. I'm not surprised that Florida's numbers are way down.

I was in central Florida in spring and early summer this year, and when I would go out there were very few people wearing masks. I had to go back to the same place for a couple of weeks last month, and the majority were wearing them. I guess the Delta wave got their attention, at least in that area.

[Silent3]

33. NH is at about 2/3 the worst case level it had, back during the winter spike

The worst NH has been, however, is still on the low side nationally.

Mask usage in public is much lower than it had been, which was once very solid, but it has gone back up some in the past couple of months.

Total deaths so far are about 1 in 900, which is terrible except when you compare to the national death rate which is worse than 1 in 500 now.