Are the polls "herding" in the Virginia Governors race?

[Dawson Leery]

https://bluevirginia.us/2021/10/wason-center-poll-shows-mcauliffe-ayala-herring-each-up-statistically-insignificant-1-point-enthusiasm-or-lack-thereof-is-key

The last few polls show T-Mac ahead by just one 1 point. It seems odd that every poll shows the same result.

[onecaliberal]

1. Early voting Dems are ahead by a lot.

Turn off the polls.

[Dawson Leery]

2. I am aware. Close to a million votes may be cast before election day.

[Polybius]

3. Which means nothing

Republicans wait till Election Day to vote. They strongly prefer in-person voting, and for the most part detest early voting.

[onecaliberal]

5. That's fine we start on election day + one million.

I will take that.

[Polybius]

7. And if they make up for it on November 2nd?

It's going to be a long night.

[onecaliberal]

8. Doubtful. How many of them are dead from Covid also?

[Polybius]

9. Well, we'll find out on Tuesday

I wish I had your confidence though.

[onecaliberal]

11. They did the same to us in California. Telling us Newsom was behind in polling.

All they could do was blow smoke up Elder’s ass. We are doing well with early totals.

[Polybius]

13. Cali had a clown Republican candidate who put his foot in his mouth daily

While the "Yes" was tied or slightly ahead in the early Summer, by the week of the recall, Newsom was took the lead with "No" by 12-20 points in every poll. Cali is also is far Bluer than Virginia.

[onecaliberal]

15. Uhm Newsom wasn't polling 20 points ahead the week before.

In fact I don’t think he ever polled that far ahead. It was a statistical tie in days leading up to recall.
Clearly we are more blue but the narrative is the same.

[Polybius]

16. Ok you're right, 19 was the most

The final votes were +14, 11, 19, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 12, all in favor of keeping. No "statistical ties."

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/

[onecaliberal]

17. Last poll I saw was 4 point difference. I never looked at 538

I don’t put much stock in them. In any pill really.

My point is and was. The media PURPOSELY reports tightening polls and dire circumstances for Dems ALWAYS! Usually NOT factual. The early voting looks fantastic.

[Polybius]

23. I like 538 because it's not a polling company

What they do is just take other polls and average them out. Anyway, let's hope you're right. On Tuesday (or Wednesday if it's uncalled) I'll come back in this thread, hopefully to praise your for being spot on.

[onecaliberal]

27. When part of your methodology includes deeply flawed polls it's hard to take serious.

I hope and pray I am right. All I can say is the cable media had the same sky is falling for Newsom vibe that they have for the Virginia governors race.

[Polybius]

29. How can they be "deeply flawed" if they were right?

538 is the most trusted source of polling that's out there. They didn't include the 4 point poll you saw because it wasn't from a trusted polling company. They rate polling companies from A to F. There's also Real Clear Politics (they average polls just like 538), they're good too, but they include some questionable polls.

Anyway, don't take it like I'm arguing, I love this discussion. I want to come in here Tuesday to tell you how right you were for being confidant.

[Polybius]

36. I was hoping to come into this thread to apologize and praise you for being right

Sadly, you weren't.

[onecaliberal]

37. Do you feel better now?

😵‍💫

[Polybius]

38. No

But hopefully my goal of stopping overconfidence will at least change some minds. I want to go into 2022 like we're 10 points behind, so we all work twice as hard to get out the vote.

When we don't worry and think we can't possibly lose, we usually do.

[onecaliberal]

39. My comments were concerning the media.

My comments were about how the media doom and gloom in California looked and sounded very similar to what they were saying in Virginia. So year, if it makes you feel better to reframe, that's cool. Peace out.

[onecaliberal]

18. Last poll I saw was 4 point difference. I never looked at 538

I don’t put much stock in them. In any pill really.

My point is and was. The media PURPOSELY reports tightening polls and dire circumstances for Dems ALWAYS! Usually NOT factual. The early voting looks fantastic.

[onenote]

32. So why did the California polls the last couple of weeks show Newsom surging

Kind of undermines your theory about the media purposely reporting tightening polls.

And polling in Virginia has historically been pretty good. The one exception was Warner v. Gillespie, where the polling suggested a comfortable win for Warner and the result on election day was a very narrow victory. Again, an example that undermines your theory.

[onecaliberal]

34. It's not a theory.

Just like Dems in disarray is the all over media meme of the year. It’s everywhere like we are the ones who don’t want paid family leave when republicans are the reason we can’t have any of the things we have in the original bills.
The media talked about how much trouble Newsom was in daily. Especially local media.

[Polybius]

14. Cali had a clown Republican candidate who put his foot in his mouth daily

While the "Yes" was tied or slightly ahead in the early Summer, by the week of the recall, Newsom was took the lead with "No" by 12-20 points in every poll. Cali is also is far Bluer than Virginia.

[onenote]

31. All of the the early votes are not for McAuliffe

You seem to think that every early ballot will be a McAuliffe vote. While it is true that early voters tend to trend towards Democratic candidates, its hardly unanimous or even close to unanimous. And unlike 2020, the Republicans are urging their voters to go to the polls early too and deep red areas are seeing a surge in early voting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/10/28/early-voting-surging-both-parties-shows-signs-becoming-way-life-virginia/

[rogue emissary]

12. +1

[Greybnk48]

4. Sure seems like it!

All the breathless, hopping up and down excitement at our expense, just so they have something to hysterically chew on.

[Dawson Leery]

6. kick

[Patton French]

10. Seems like it, but who knows what to think these days...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[brooklynite]

19. Except that they don't

McAuliffe +1
McAuliffe +3
McAuliffe +1
Youngkin +2
McAuliffe +5
Even
McAuliffe +4
Youngkin +1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/

[lagomorph777]

20. I'm scared VA is about to become a COVID slaughterhouse if Trumpkin wins.

I don't know anything about polls anymore. They seem to have lost all their main tools (such as land line phones without caller ID).

[budkin]

21. It's going to be a razor thin win for either candidate

Makes me ill that it's this close.

[lagomorph777]

22. I thought VA was emerging from the Dark Ages.

Not so sure anymore...

[former9thward]

24. Another thread attacking polls.

Yet when polls have a result that people favor they are cited like the Ten Commandments.

[Sabuca]

25. The polling business is in crisis

In general polls are not close enough to give people an idea who's gonna win a contest.

[andym]

26. Close race because the GOP has gone back to wedge issues

which is their strength in elections. It's no accident that they promote culture wars.

Also, President Biden is not polling well-- really since the Afghanistan exit debacle, which means he can't help as much in VA as might have earlier in the year.

[Dawson Leery]

33. School boards is the issue. I am aware.

CRT is not taught in school. The majority of parents are angry about the schools being closed. At the same time, they don't want to get their kids vaccines.

Open schools without masks/vaccines equals more COVID. The "no nothings" are the real threat.

[UCmeNdc]

30. GOTV - that is all that matters.

[peggysue2]

35. This!