General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPolling in America Is Still Broken. So Who Is Really Winning in Virginia?
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/10/polling-is-still-broken-so-whos-winning-in-virginia.htmlLess than a week before Virginians pick their next governor, there is a sense of frenzied uncertainty hanging over the race. That much isnt surprising the polling between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin is extremely tight. What many anxious voters may not appreciate, though, is that, given the state of the polling industry, theres a good argument to be made that the freak-out should actually be much worse.
Pollsters are nearly a year into battling the four-alarm fire set by their general-election disaster in 2020 the biggest national-level polling miss in nearly half a century. One year ago, Democrats rolled into Election Day confident that they would see a relatively easy Joe Biden victory remember the closing-stretch Quinnipiac poll showing him up five in Florida and the CNN-SSRS survey with a margin of six in North Carolina, or the Morning Consult poll with Biden up nine in Pennsylvania? And, of course, there was the USC projection of a 12-point national gap. Trump, of course, won Florida and North Carolina and came perilously close in the Keystone State, with the margin there figuring prominently in his postelection lies about a rigged vote. To simplify a bit: Across the country, pollsters seemed to systematically undercount GOP support, despite the fact that they were trying very hard, after some issues in 2016, not to do that.
But with the political world entirely focused on Virginia, looking to glean lessons about the state of the national parties, the fate of Bidens agenda, and Americans hope for the future, the pollsters the people who give us a sense of what to expect in elections are offering a new round of projections without ever having quite figured out what went wrong last year. That means theres no comfort to be found in the latest numbers for hopeful Republicans, certainly, but especially for Democrats desperate to keep Richmond blue and get reassurance about Bidens governing ambitions.
The industry set out to resolve all the ugly questions around the disaster of 2020 in the standard manner: with a big autopsy. In July, the American Association for Public Opinion Research released its eagerly awaited (in the biz) report with the cooperation of a range of political and academic researchers. It first concluded that that years national-level polling error 4.5 percentage points, on average was the highest it could find in four decades, and that the state-level surveys were as far off 5.1 points as they had been since the group started tracking that data in 2000. (So, yes, it really was as bad as it seemed on Election Night.) And 2020s mistakes were different from 2016s, it continued: Then, pollsters had undervalued education levels in weighing their research, which led to underestimating Trumps support. Now, though, something bigger and scarier had happened. They just still couldnt conclude what, exactly, that was.
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Karma13612
(4,552 posts)Behind and work like heck to get people to the polls
Deuxcents
(16,190 posts)I hope not but with steal the whatever.. patience is in order
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)Actively screwing with pollsters now, particularly on their side
JohnSJ
(92,136 posts)calls from numbers they dont recognize, so the polls reflect only those callers who are willing to answer calls from unknown numbers, and doesnt include those who dont answer calls from unknown numbers
I dont know how significant that is, but with all the spam and spoofing calls going on, I think it is material factor that needs to be factored in
brer cat
(24,559 posts)I was often called for poll prior to elections, but we stopped answering calls from unknown numbers and I haven't been polled for the past few years. We are hardly unique in that regard.
I don't see a reason why those answering would skew one way or the other.
I have call screening for any unknown numbers.
JohnSJ
(92,136 posts)qazplm135
(7,447 posts)They could be less likely for all we know
shrike3
(3,572 posts)reach us, they leave a voicemail.
gab13by13
(21,304 posts)Democrats win, and more people are voting. I think a million voted already.
Celerity
(43,315 posts)If the only time to vote (other than real, legit absentees) was on this coming Tuesday, he would get beaten badly I fear.
Of course no one has a crystal ball, but the Youngkin campaign and rallies are across the board are very upbeat, a lot of attendance, and all are energised. McAuliffe's campaign is tense and nervous, the rallies have been flat, and have not the best attendance. Youngkin has localised the campaign, McAuliffe has nationalised it. This is all per multiple local experts.
I do not myself have enough of true feeling to call it, but I am in no way 💯% confident we win. I so hope we pull it out and actually significantly exceed expectations.
Virginia and Colorado going consistently blew the last decade plus or so have been two huge positive paradigm shifts for us. We cannot start to backtrack.
My main targets to perma blue are GA, AZ, PA, and NC.
I am very pessimistic about FL, and all the Midwest, save for IL, MI, and (this state really worries me) MN. IA is now basically gone, same as IN and MO turned ages ago. WI is getting there, and then MN looms. I do not count PA as pure Midwest. It's a hybrid, like MD.
TX is still fantasyland. So many do no not understand the change taking place in the Latinx community (and not just in Texas at all) with fundie born again churches exploding inside them, and pumping out newly minted RWers. I fear a larger and larger chunk will vote Rethug.
Mr.Bill
(24,282 posts)in making us think the race is close because that boosts ratings.
PortTack
(32,755 posts)Polybius
(15,385 posts)For some reason, he's got momentum.
Demovictory9
(32,449 posts)Demsrule86
(68,552 posts)MineralMan
(146,286 posts)That poll is still to happen.