What are your Election Day predictions?

[Polybius]

Here's mine:

NYC Mayor: Eric Adams (D) defeats Curtis Sliwa (R) by 27 points

NJ Governor: Phil Murphy (D) defeats Jack Ciattarelli (R) by 3 points

VA Governor: Glenn Youngkin (R) defeats Terry McAuliffe (D) by 2 points

What do you think? What are some of your predictions on these and other races (and ballot initiatives) that I didn't list?

[Elessar Zappa]

1. I don't have specific predictions but

I think McAuliffe will pull it off. Early voting is looking good and participation is up in two blue north Virginia counties.

[Polybius]

6. Early voting always favors Democrats though

For some reason, Republican's usually prefer to vote in person on Election Day, while we prefer to vote early. Not sure why this is though.

[vercetti2021]

2. Doom and gloom

That's my prediction

[multigraincracker]

3. A really big surprise.

My best guess.

[doc03]

4. The Republican will either win or TFG will

claim it was rigged. My Trump humping neighbor has a sign "When I die dont let me vote Democrat"

[Lawrence454]

5. We will all 3 by a confrontable margin

so tired of the doom and gloom here, its really giving me anxiety more than the actual races.

[Polybius]

7. How is this doom and gloom?

I listed three races and predicted that we win two of them. As for Virginia, it's my prediction based on everything I've seen. I want to be wrong, and if I am come back in this thread and let me know.

[jimfields33]

8. In the whole 48 hours you've been here?

[Hortensis]

12. :) Sounds like you MAY be tough enough. Welcome to DU. nt

[book_worm]

9. I think Murphy does better than winning by 3

If he only won by 3 that would almost be as much of disaster as McA losing-I'll go with high single #'s. Yes, Adams wins handily. You may be right about a narrow defeat for McA, but I think McA wins by 2.

[FSogol]

10. I predict Virginians will get off their butts and turn out.

McAuliffe will win.

[book_worm]

11. Yep, they say only one-third of all votes will be cast early this time...

so lets hope a lot of Dems will turn out on election day.

[Demsrule86]

17. They said Newsome was on the ropes too...

Same bullshit.

[Polybius]

19. The polls didn't say that

The final polling was +14, 11, 19, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 12, all in favor of keeping Newsome.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/

[Me.]

13. I'll Bet You One Recce

That McAuliffe pulls it out and Murphy will have a bigger margin than 3

[JustAnotherGen]

14. Murphy wins by 10

Drove by the GOP HQ in Hunterdon County NJ about 4:30 - they had advertised around 11 am they had a new shipment of Jack signs. They are still there

[MFM008]

15. Terry wins by 2

We had a race here in Washington state where Christine Gregoire was up against Dino Rossi the vote was so close Rossi beat her the first time and then the recounts after that showed that she won finally by only 140 votes I think it could be that close but I still say Terry wins this.

[Demsrule86]

16. Ridiculous... Virginia Democratic voters are 28

Points higher than Republican voters…

[Polybius]

18. In early voting, yes

That's not good news either, because Republicans despise early voting. That they are only 28 points behind is a very bad sign.

[Polybius]

34. Not so ridiculous now

I am a realist, I knew what was coming.

[drexelkathy]

20. I just don't know

Early voting numbers in VA and NJ look about as expected.

I guess we shall see what tomorrow brings. It will be a long night I suspect

[JustAnotherGen]

22. Looked at VANS last night

NJ - early voting didn't tick up much over the weekend. More democratic turnout via mail in and early voting than GOP.

[drexelkathy]

25. I have looked at several

And I don’t know if I’m seeing Murphy running high enough numbers in North Jersey in early voting and mail in ballots.

[JustAnotherGen]

27. He's winning

VAN - is for committee members. He's winning. Shitarelli has a snowballs chance in hell. No one is voting for that kook.

[drexelkathy]

31. I'm thinking

VANS miscalculated


The race is as close as I expected it to be.


Let’s see what plays out.

[JustAnotherGen]

38. Aren't you happy VAN was right?

Mail in - Essex.

[drexelkathy]

32. When you look at data

Collected from a paid one party platform…you tend to miss what actual people on the ground think.


And when you don’t have kinds under mandates, you also miss how their parents feel.

[drexelkathy]

33. Guess you were wrong about no one

“Voting for that kook”

[JustAnotherGen]

37. Won won won won won

Phil won. 50.2 percent! Winning! Won!

[edhopper]

21. Pain

[Polybius]

24. I wonder if there will be any upsets

Hope not.

[edhopper]

26. I think we will take

NYC, NJ and VA. I just like to answer like Clubber Lang anytime someone asks for predictions.

[Sympthsical]

23. Predict It has Youngkin up

58R - 46D

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

We'll see. I still think McA squeaks it, but I have maybe 2% confidence in my prediction.

The man and his team have done everything humanly possible to sink his campaign. A Biden +10 can only buoy so much, and with the President's falling numbers, that doesn't have the power it might customarily have.

Manchin might've handed over the final nail. People say voters are already locked in with choices. Most of them, I'm sure. But enthusiasm matters, and this is more wind out of the sails.

In a race this close, every little thing can flip it around.

[Hotler]

28. Steve Bannon still walks free. nt.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Youngkin wins by 5+. Not particularly close.

Unfortunately.

[Polybius]

30. We'll know tonight

Or maybe tomorrow if it's really close. Predictions have so far been all over the place.

[Polybius]

35. Funny how I got no Recs for this post because I predicted a 2 point Youngkin win

I also got blasted for saying that Murphy only wins by 3, and it looks like he wins by 1% now. Don't shoot the messenger. I am just a realist, I predict what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.

[Me.]

36. Here-in Is The Recce You Are Owed