I Really Can't Comment on the Virginia Gubernatorial Election

[MineralMan]

I live halfway across the country from there, so I don't have any valid insights into the election. I've been watching poll results, of course, but have no real idea about how those polls were done. I can't vote in Virginia, either.

What does all that mean? It means that I have to wait until Tuesday's election is over and all the votes have been counted. I hope it tilts to elect the Democratic candidate, but I have no idea if that will happen. This is one that is too hard to predict, really.

However, I am reminded a bit by the recall election of Governor Newsom in California. Lots of people were fearful about that one, too. I do know a little about California politics, since I lived there for 55+ years. I wasn't worried. As I expected, Newson kept his job.

What will happen in Virginia? I don't know, and nothing in the media helps me. So, I'll wait and see. I do know it's going to be somewhat important as we look toward 2022. I hope it goes our way.

[viva la]

1. The memory of the "Newsom's in trouble!" panic last summer--

makes me feel more calm about Virginia.

[MineralMan]

3. Yes, I suppose so.

I'm not fretting too much about VA, but it's on my mind. I wish I knew more, but there's not a lot of help from the media.

My sense is that Democrats will carry the state. Early voting number seem to indicate that there is strong Democratic support from Virginians, at least in early voting. However, Election Day voting might bring out Republicans. Might. I just don't know.

[stopdiggin]

7. two things w/ Newsom

1) The 'scare' headlines were mostly well in advance (a month?) of the actual vote. By the time the date rolled around - done deal. And so were the projections.
and 2) CA is predominantly and heavily Democratic - leaving the only real question being voter turnout for an off year recall/election. But - CA is also an automatic ballot in the mail, vote by mail (or however else you want to) system - thereby making it dead easy for all registered voters to participate.

Vote by mail works! Works well. And the idea that we need to keep the exercise of franchise difficult, onerous or cumbersome in order to 'protect the process' - is a recent undemocratic invention - by a movement that has show itself to be, at best, indifferent to democratic process.

[FBaggins]

12. By two days before the recall, "remain" was up by almost 20 points in some polls

The panic had long since subsided.

These polls are much closer and have been moving in the wrong direction. "Panic" is absolutely warranted - so long as "panic" means "I'm calling all of my VA friends and family and making sure that they get out to vote!" rather than "I'm curled up in a ball waiting for the end to come"

[question everything]

2. The one who would have replaced Newsome was clearly a Trumpist. In VA he has

managed to distance himself, even though trump did endorse him.

Also Critical Race Theory, even though not taught in VA is now the “Defund the Police” that caused the loss os so many Democratic seats last year.

[MineralMan]

4. Well Racism Certainly Has an Influence in Virginia Politics.

Despite its slightly blue color, the more rural parts of Virginia are still the "Old South." What will election day turnout look like? I have no idea.

[pwb]

5. I think the Blue wave builds even higher.

We win big.

[MineralMan]

6. That's my hope, for sure.

Maybe a good, strong win in VA will slow down the doom-and-gloom crowd a little.

[Deep State Witch]

8. You can do phone banking

If you want to help, my friend and coven-mate who is in Virginia says to go to https://www.mobilize.us/terryforvirginia/ and sign up to do phone banking. It can be done from anywhere in the country.

[Elessar Zappa]

10. Thanks for the link!

Going there now…

[JohnSJ]

9. When the survey USA showed Newsom getting recalled by 11 points, this A rated pollster

sure worried a lot of people

It was about Turnout, and that made the difference

[FBaggins]

13. That was a month and a half before the vote

The same pollster had two later polls showing "remain" winning solidly.

[JohnSJ]

14. They messed up on their criteria for "likely voters", and they issued a mea culpa

regarding that

The only way here in California that the recall would have passed, is if we didn’t turnout, and that wasn’t the case, along with the fact that mail-in voting was sent to every registered voter with a postage paid stamp which implicitly increased turnout, along with the early votin

Though California is much different than Virginia, I am hoping the early voting moves the needle toward us

[question everything]

11. Also, McAuliffe really really was hoping for the vote in Congress to pass. To show that Democrats

can get things done.

Will a vote on Monday achieve this?

[JohnSJ]

15. I think the vote is supposed to happen on Tuesday. However, I think that is too late to help

us in Virginia regardless. We had six months to hammer something down, and it didn’t happen.

This will have an impact on the 2022 election I believe

[W_HAMILTON]

16. I'm not nearly as worried about Virginia as everyone else is either.

I don't live there now, so unfortunately I can't vote in the upcoming election, but I did live there when it was changing from a purple state to more of a blue state. I'm not that worried. I think Democrats in Virginia have done an incredible job leading the state over the past few years and I don't think there are enough that want to see it revert into a Florida-wannabe cesspool with Republican leadership.

[honest.abe]

17. If VA Dems realize this is a critical election and they need to show up to win this..

then Terry will win. Im getting the feeling that they are and they will or already have. Cautiously optimistic.